I have argued before if the economy doesn’t improve significantly before the 2012 election, Barack Obama will be the easiest incumbent to defeat since Jimmy Carter. But even if that happens, it probably won’t look like it until the last days of the campaign. I say that in part based on the Carter-Reagan experience.
The 1980 election was held on November 2. But as late as October 23, Carter held a small lead over Reagan (39 percent v. 38 percent, with 9 percent voicing support for John Anderson, who ran as an independent.). And that gap was essentially static since Labor Day. But on election day, Carter pollster Patrick Caddell informed the president his latest polls revealed a massive shift toward Reagan in the previous 48 hours. It was all coming apart for Carter, Caddell concluded. And by the time the election was over, Reagan had carried 44 of the 50 states and won 489 electoral votes v. 49 for Carter.
“It was truly a landslide and virtually none of us in the media, the political industry or the polling fraternity had foreseen its dimensions,” according to “The Pursuit of the Presidency 1980,” written by several Washington Post reporters. “But the elements for the upheaval had long been present.”
I’m not prepared to predict a Carter-like defeat for President Obama, since it depends on several unknown factors, from who the GOP nominee will be to the state of the economy and the country. But I am prepared to say right now the elements for a 2012 upheaval are in place, much as they were prior to the Reagan landslide and as they were prior to the 2010 epic repudiation of Obama and Democrats. And unless the economy swings around soon and in a fairly substantial way, Mr. Obama will be terrifically vulnerable.
I think this article is right on target. Right now the suspense of who is really going to be in the running for the GOP is making me really wackazoid….please Lord let it be some we can really get behind! And I am, rightly I think, suspicious of any one who the MSM mentions as a possibility. Right now I’m praying reeeeally hard.
Curt I never wish anything bad on innocent people! Just to be clear the larger part of our political system is anything but innocent! I am really praying that something will happen to reveal with undeniable evidence and impact as to just how corrupt and Anti-American this Administration really is!!! I hate to say it but the American people are more prone to believe in Icons and conceptions than people of third world nations!
Otherwise we would not be in the predicament we are in today!
Just as much as a land slide election and maybe even more I hope we can get someone in office to begin to clean house, fire the State Department and send the United Nations home, while restoring some level of honorableness to the system in Washington! Because at the present I do not see ANY!
OHbama has been pampered for all his life. His ego will not tolerate his not “being owed”. His advisors must feed that ego or the’re gone.
Recently he said one term would be OK with Wookie & the kids. That’s rationalization in the face of reality
Now if only the current GOP can avoid “screwing the pooch” before the election. That means:
(1) No scandals.
(2) Think carefully before you speak.
(3) Don’t trust the press. They are worried and out to get gotcha moments on any and all GOP members they can.
I hate to say this with so many in America suffering, but I do think that Trump is correct about one thing. The GOP needs to avoid (before the 2012 elections,) getting overly ambitious about fixing problems that Obama and the Democrat’s have caused in a manner where the party in power can steal all the credit, while issuing demagoguery on Republicans.
@Ditto: Ditto I do not disagree with what you are saying as usual, most all the time you make very good sense! However why should we vote for Republicans they have left the American public hung out to dry….and just like with the waters rising from the Cold winters we have had (which could not have happened according to the Administration)….we have more and more people becoming homeless and jobless as well as many many businesses going under! 200,000 now and climbing! I ask you why should we even consider the Republicans as source to any solution unless they get off their asses and do something? Really the VULNERABLE ones here is the American public! Can we continue to trust the Republican party to actually come forth with real dimension and change to correct matters? Are we that self centered and blind or do we require the Republican party to actually go to work and reveal the corruption at all cost to the American people?
J V Hoffman –
While I understand your concern, and share it; I still believe we can turn the Republican Party back into the conservative voice that it should be. We started in 2010, we will continue! It has to start at the local level, state level and grow to over take the national scene. Don’t dismiss the Tea Party, which is really the old silent majority. We have to be silent no more! All of us. Walking off and pouting doesn’t cut it. Be proactive, don’t fall for the same old tricks from the same old pols. If the Republican party doesn’t wake up, we will oust the Rinos, and take our party back. If this leads to a new party, than so be it.
@Traditional Tibby: I would that their were more people like you! The problem is bigger than we realize and there has to be a real awakening or we will just be floating helplessly down the same path of destruction if just elect the Republicans and not let them know that the “GAME IS OVER!” We want results NOW, and not after 2012!
@JVHoffman
Oh I don’t say at all that we should trust the Republicans. In fact we need to stay hot and heavy on their butts with demands of conservative fidelity, and that they not kowtow to yielding to the devious compromises the Democrats and administration offer. They need to understand that it is the People who are at most risk up to the 2012 elections. I think that the Republicans need to play it stubborn and firmly stick to the positions of the voters that gave them the House. Make the Democrats come to them.
Yes they should show compassion and help the needy, but as the last budget compromise showed, the Democrats and Obama refused to reduce spending and only offered token reductions. All the while pointing to the Republicans as being heartless to the needy. The Democrats are the true heartless ones who are playing with peoples emotions, and enslave our children and grandchildren with their out of control spending. They care nothing about the suffering of future generations, so long as they can buy votes with entitlement spending.
We must elect Republicans ONLY in order to put a stop to this race to insolvency. Democrats will only continue the downhill slide. Above all, Obama must not gain a second term. But we also must play tough with the GOP to make sure they don’t bend to the will of the Washington establishment Republicans. We have to keep warning them that we will not put up with a Republican Congress like the one we had during Gingrich’s reign as speaker, and that they MUST reduce the size of government and cut spending to the bone.
@Ditto: I am not against anything you are saying Ditto all the opposite in fact…..However I believe they should start right now and show us otherwise why should we vote for them? Actions speak louder than words!
JV and Ditto – I think we are all on the same page here – just have to keep their feet to the fire! Soldier on dudes! 🙂