The polls close in most places in New Hampshire at 7 Eastern time, with the remaining in a different time zone closing at 8 Eastern time.Nate Silver’s live-blogging the primary so make sure to stay tuned to him for updates, commentary, speculation, etc.
Mitt Romney, as we all know, finished in a virtual tie with Rick Santorum in Iowa. And as I’ve noted before, Romney has polled solidly in New Hampshire for months now, maintaining double digit leads the whole way. My prediction is that he’ll come out the winner tonight and that it will be announced by the MSM not long after 8 pm. Exit polls are showing that among late deciding voters, 29% went to him. The next highest number, 24% of late deciders, went for Huntsman.
Shockingly enough, in the redder than red state of South Carolina, Romney is in the lead going into the South Carolina primary, which is on January 21. Months ago, I was telling friends everywhere that there was no way in the world Romney would get the nomination, what with the conservative base being fired up at trying to get Obama out of office, and fed up with what some call “establishment Republicans” like Romney. But more and more, I’m reading not just about the “electability” factor but also the “inevitability” factor – that is, once a candidate starts winning and continues winning, voters who haven’t yet had their respective primaries begin to feel that whatever candidate is winning the most is the “inevitable” candidate, and will either not vote in their primary out of a sense of resignation or will go just to say they went – and vote for the “inevitable” candidate.
It’s early still, obviously, but the momentum looks in these early stages to be headed in Mitt’s direction.
1.75% of the delegates have been allocated. Little early to give up, in my opinion. After Feb 4th, if Romney is six for six, then I’ll be happy to give him the ‘inevitability’ crown. So far he hasn’t broken 40% anywhere, either in polling or actual votes.
Curt People love a winner till he/she becomes a loser Momentum– most over used word in sports and politics.
To beat Romney 1) Perry must quit 2) Santorum must quit 3)Sarah must endorse and campaign for Newt–at least Todd’s got guts.
With HUGE EGOS involved,the above is not likely to happen in time to derail Mitt.
THOUGHTS
rich wheeler, Perry will quit. My guess is after SC. He skipped NH, and after bad showings there and in IA, SC is likely to be his moment of decision. Gingrich had the lead there, but Romney is gaining traction after his IA/NH mediocre successes. But Perry will quit unless something extraordinary happens.
Santorum will also quit unless he has an extraordinary SC showing. He’s not got the funds to hang out with a losing streak for too long, unlike Perry.
Do you think that Todd and Sarah have not discussed his endorsement? Did it not occur to you that it may better serve Newt to run with the Todd endorsement, and perhaps have Sarah come out later for a 2nd Palin endorsement? Or is it that you think she would endorse someone else? Personally, I think it’s a strategy to give Newt mileage. Whether it will do any good is another thing. Last I heard, Newt had enough funding to hang in there until May/June.
The way to beat Romney is for Ron Paul to quit. And therein lies the biggest ego. I’m sure he’s enjoying the attention now, but he will never get the nomination. In the meantime, he is the key spoiler and obstacle for picking an alternate to Romney.
The latest SC polls (thru Jan 7th) from RCP. Santorum will have to catch up to Newt in funds, since they’re neck in neck for the #2 spot. Perry’s been campaigning there… no polls yet to indicate if it’s making an iota of difference.
Mata Time is not a friend to Newt.He needs Sarah sooner than later.Paul has little support in S.C. and Fla. and what he has is more likely to support
Mitt than Newt.We can agree he ain’t quittin.
Right now only QUICKLY dropped egos of Perry,Santorum and Sarah can give Newt a “puncher’s chance”
My gosh, you liberals are an impatient bunch, aren’t you? There’s 50 primaries, and the second one only went down today. Both IA and NH were pretty predictable, but are hardly the conservative nation at large.
Time is do’able if there is cash to hold out and campaign/advertise for any of them. Sarah does not need to tag team Todd merely to scratch your itch, guy. Chill…. LOL
And you obviously don’t know my childhood and family home’s state very well if you think Florida’s in the bag for Romney. Perhaps you have forgotten the fate of Charlie Crist, or who sent Marco Rubio to Congress?
Nope… the one that needs to go is Ron Paul. But I see him milking this for quite some time. I do have to wonder what his intent is. Because it sure isn’t any hope that he’d be the nominee. He’s fast running out of railroad track, that one.
@MataHarley: ‘Newt had enough funding to hang in there until May/June.’
It depends on how you look at it. Adelson donated $5 million to a pro-Newt superPAC and has pledged more, so there should be money for ads (pro-Newt or anti-Romney or whatever) from that. But that’s not under the campaign’s control and it’s possible that they will run short on funds even while the superPACs supporting him are still flush. Would be weird.
Santorum is said to have raised $3 million in the week following his Iowa win. Which probably leaves him with $3 million. Which is about 1/2 of what he would need just for a serious push in Florida.
‘The way to beat Romney is for Ron Paul to quit.’
Not sure how that would play out as far as the voters go. In terms of the media narrative, though, it would certainly help your cause if Paul weren’t second in votes to Romney at this point. But Paul isn’t quitting; he’s reliable in that respect. One of the things I like about him.
bbart, the Newt funds I was talking about was those he had control of. Not even considering superPAC funds outside of his control.
Then make sure to mark your calendar and thank him for a Romney nomination if he doesn’t leave the carousel soon…. LOL I fully expected him in for the IA/NH. But it’s downhill from here for him. He was already dropping down in the polls in NH before today.
Mata Romney wins S.C. and Newt down 10+ big MO carries Mitt in FLA.—tick toc tick toc.
BTW I too a native Floridian and see Rubio as Mitt’s Veep.
Like I said, you’re an impatient person. Why don’t you just concentrate on your boy, rich? Or isn’t that soaring rhetoric getting that tingly feeling going any more?
Rubio as Mitt’s veep would be his *only* redeeming factor as a candidate… much like the McCain-Palin dichotomy.
@MataHarley: Well, Romney was my second choice after Paul, so for me the news these days is not as depressing as it is for someone who has Paul and Romney at the bottom of their list.
‘But it’s downhill from here for him.’
In SC and FL, I expect so. His campaign manager already said they won’t be spending any money in FL (winner take all, Paul’s polling is awful there, and it’s an expensive media market). And SC is a red, red state, where Paul’s foreign policy plays even worse than elsewhere. There are other states (Maine, Minnesota, Nevada) where he may possibly improve on his NH showing, though.
Mata Like football you know I love the game. I’m having fun and they’ll be time to worry about BHO later.
I must be really stupid! I thought that there were 50 states involved in this process and now, with only 1 1/2 actual voting (Iowa really shouldn’t count) suddenly Mitt has been crowned??? GIVE ME A BREAK! Everyone who is counting Perry out is short-sighted. Paul needs to fade into oblivion (from whence he came) Santorum will shoot himself in the foot (if he can get it out of his mouth), Huntsman has no business in this race (except that he speaks Mandarin) and Newt… well, there is the WOW factor.
I really resent being told that the ” New One” has been annointed after one primary! If Rino Romney is chosen, I will hold my nose and vote for him, but let all the states get a chance to speak. The media needs to BUTT OUT and stop letting the lunatic left dictate who our candidate will be.
@ bbartlog:
Yep, I agree. Paul has the money to hang for a while. I think his demise will come if he does horrible in the Super Tuesday. For those that don’t know the schedule:
January 3, 2012 Iowa (caucus) – Results
January 10, 2012 New Hampshire (primary) – Results
January 21, 2012 South Carolina (primary)
January 31, 2012 Florida (primary)
February 4, 2012 Nevada (caucus)
February 4–11, 2012 Maine (caucus)
February 7, 2012 Colorado (caucus)
Minnesota (caucus)
Missouri (primary) – *See note below on Missouri
February 28, 2012 Arizona (primary)
Michigan (primary)
March 3, 2012 Washington (caucus)
March 6, 2012
(Super Tuesday)
Alaska (caucus)
Georgia (primary)
Idaho (caucus)
Massachusetts (primary)
North Dakota (caucus)
Ohio (primary)
Oklahoma (primary)
Tennessee (primary)
Vermont (primary)
Virginia (primary)
March 6-10, 2012 Wyoming (caucus)
March 10, 2012 Kansas (caucus)
U.S. Virgin Islands (caucus)
March 13, 2012 Alabama (primary)
Hawaii (caucus)
Mississippi (primary)
March 17, 2012 Missouri (GOP caucus) – *See note below on Missouri
March 20, 2012 Illinois (primary)
March 24, 2012 Louisiana (primary)
April 3, 2012 District of Columbia (primary)
Maryland (primary)
Wisconsin (primary)
Texas (primary)
April 24, 2012 Connecticut (primary)
Delaware (primary)
New York (primary)
Pennsylvania (primary)
Rhode Island (primary)
May 8, 2012 Indiana (primary)
North Carolina (primary)
West Virginia (primary)
May 15, 2012 Nebraska (primary)
Oregon (primary)
May 22, 2012 Arkansas (primary)
Kentucky (primary)
June 5, 2012 California (primary)
Montana (primary)
New Jersey (primary)
New Mexico (primary)
South Dakota (primary)
June 26, 2012 Utah (primary)
Aqua: You coulda just linked to the Green Papers: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/events.phtml?s=c
@FedUp: ‘Everyone who is counting Perry out is short-sighted. ‘
I like Perry and his positions, but when you pull less than one percent of the vote somewhere (he got 0.7% in NH), there’s something wrong with your campaign.