“Neither the US nor EU seem to have thought through what the end result of sanctions will be”

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thread via Abhijit Iyer-Mitra

Over the last few days I’ve obviously been talking to friends in Moscow, mostly upset & in shock. But what’s been revealing is talking to friends in Europe. There’s a clear attitudinal difference between politicians & bureaucrats. The politicians I’ve not been able to have a proper conversation with. It gets choked up with too much emotion and fury to the point that it’s just futile continuing the conversation. It becomes sterile after a point.
 
With bureaucrats there’s a pervasive sense of fear. Mind you there’s two kind of bureaucrats in Europe, the politically aligned ones & the career bureaucrats. Curiously despite some of their public posturing, they agree the sanctions have gone too far. Too far not in terms of self harm, but in terms of having little to no leverage to now elicit good behaviour from Russia.
 
The political ones tell me they’ve not opposed these sanctions with their political bosses because their job is to do what the boss wants. The career ones OTOH uniformly seem to be scared to voice any dissenting opinion, because there will be career consequences. For any policy to be made there needs to be a healthy exchange of opposing views. Policies made in an atmosphere of coercion & conformity are plain bad policies. Clearly Europe is going down a rabbit hole, and the ones who see it are feeling too unsafe to verbalise their objections.
 
But this brings me to America. Here my conversations have been much more interesting and a lot less uniform. There is an acknowledgment that Europe seems to be getting carried away. Specifically the only people thinking about the nuclear angle are the Americans. Equally curious here is that neither the US nor EU seem to have thought through what the end result will be. What exactly do they want to achieve? Is regime change in Russia realistic? What if Russia with nothing to lose starts acting like North Korea? What if they station nuclear missiles in Cuba?
 
What if they decide to torpedo any Iran deal or a host of other issues where Russian help is needed? How will the issue of CAATSA sanctions on india be dealt with? Literally no thought given to it. It mostly confirms my suspicion that nobody’s given much thought to knockdown political issues related to sanctions and have tunnel visioned into economic effects only. The underlying assumptions have been both dangerous & ahistorical “they’ll get rid of Putin”.
 
Really? In my understanding of Russian history they’ve only ever gotten rid of leaders who seemed pusillanimous & weak – for example Tsar Peter III (for the disastrous “miracle of the house of Brandenburg”), Tsar Paul (weak policies against napoleon), Tsar Nicholas II (disastrous WW1 showing), Khrushchev (Folding over the Cuban Missile Crisis), Gorbachev (Cold War) Medvedev (repeating Gorbachev’s mistake of trusting the west over Libya). I’m yet to see a Russian leader deposed for being too brutal or too strong even if murderous (Ivan IV, Stalin).
 
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Therein lies the problem – even those in the west who disagree with these sanctions but are too scared to speak out about it, are basing their calculus on flawed, untested assumptions that the hawks also share. Nothing good can come from this. I’d suggest you all read some WW1 history
 
• Barbara Tuchman “Guns of August”
• Douglas Newton “Darkest Days: Britain’s
13/13 …. Rush to War”
• TG Otte “July Crisis: The World’s Descent to War”
• Lawrence Sondhaus “The Great War at Sea”
 
All these books acknowledged some level of “stumbling” but also a significant level of “premeditation”. I think you’ll find the parallels quite disturbing

 

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There will always be unintended consequences. But Putin has to be stopped and unless and until we reopen our production and cut off Putin’s oil revenues, he can withstand it all. Only if the Russian people rise up will the sanctions be effective.

Indeed. If Biden does not re-open the Keystone, he should be removed for Treason.

If enough Republicans with balls are elected in 2022, idiot Biden’s assault on our energy independence would be about third on the list of high crimes and misdemeanors worthy of impeachment. This anti-American tool has been an unmitigated disaster, which is why the majority voted for Trump.

What exactly do they want to achieve?

Russian withdrawal from Ukraine, and the removal of Vladimir Putin–the latter by the Russians themselves. Putin’s war has been a total disaster for everyone concerned. He’s risking an even greater one.

Last edited 2 years ago by Greg

The US was energy independent. Biden made us dependent…AGAIN…on countries who do not wish us well.

Now OPEC is back in business, and Putin can leverage the dependency the US and NATO has on Russian Oil.

It’s like Biden was trying to lower our standing and allow for this crisis to happen.

The largest nuclear power plant in Europe is now burning, after being shelled by Putin’s forces.

Live updates: Russian troops shelling nuclear power station

Last edited 2 years ago by Greg

Nuclear plants don’t explode. How can the plant have been “shelled” but not damaged.

MAR 3 202210:37 PM EST – Ukrainian officials say nuclear power plant secure after Russian attack
The State Emergency Service of Ukraine said Friday that following an attack by Russian forces on Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, the facility is currently secure.

The emergency service said that there was a fire behind the nuclear power plant in an area that is used for training. The service said that initially, firefighters were unable to extinguish the fire due to the ongoing armed conflict.

The director of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant said in a statement posted Friday on Facebook that at the moment the plant is secure.

For the moment the parking lot and admin building fires are out. Perhaps they should take Putin a bit more seriously, not walk out on the russian spokesman at the UN. Zelensky is in way over his head and taking many innocent people under with him.

He deserved to be walked out on. What he said was an insult to the intelligence of everyone present.

Ukraine was in possession of 1,700 nuclear warheads—1/3 of the entire Soviet Union’s nuclear arsenal. Ukraine voluntarily gave the weapons up when it became an independent nation. It destroyed all of its warheads, and joined in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

World turns its back on Russia: Astonishing moment diplomats WALK OUT as Kremlin minister tells disarmament conference Russia was forced to invade Ukraine to ‘stop them getting nuclear weapons’

Ukraine voluntarily gave the weapons up when it became an independent nation.

Voluntary as in Russia required it.

Diplomats are now “protesting?”

They obviously wanted this war, and it’s all theater for them.

There obviously was not attack an the plant itself, but perhaps on the grounds adjacent.

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Democrat Policies: Keystone Pipeline Would Have Delivered 830,000 Barrels of Oil a Day to US — More than Current Daily Russian Imports of 670,000 Barrels a Day

biden is complicit in the deaths of the Ukrainian people as he continues to buy oil from Putin fueling pitons war machine.