Moonbeam’s Prop 30 Passed, Now For A Lesson In Reality

Moonbeam’s Prop 30 Passed, Now For A Lesson In Reality

Proposition #30 was a desperate move by the ubiquitous Governor of California to fund teacher’s pensions while droning on endlessly during commercials on why we can’t desert our children. It is always to save the children; at least we are led to believe if teachers are paid more and receive greater pensions, some of the lowest achieving teachers and students in the country will miraculously improve the educational levels of California.

Moonbeam came by his nickname honestly.

The measure passed and now greater taxes will be paid by a few wealthy people who can’t leave California. New York was caught in this dilemma when they raised taxes on the rich and revenue decreased after the inevitable exodus. France just increased income taxes on the wealthy to 75%, but they are finding far fewer wealthy people so enamored of France that they are willing to give up 75% of their income. Although Socialist Liberalism rarely computes on the balance sheet for the Conservative, the Liberals of France are about to have a rude awakening, for not only do the wealthy leave, they take a substantial portion of the money supply and a good portion of the country’s entrepreneurial expertise with them. Thus the stagnant economy that suffered from government profligacy, but intends to bail itself out for its irresponsible behavior with the money of others, finds itself at an insurmountable obstacle: a population clinging to a sense of entitlement, especially when it concerns the money of others, but without the tax base to support itself.

Standby California, the facts don’t lie, but it is obvious Proposition 30 will be a multiplying factor in this denial of reality by the voters of California and their rather simple minded leaders. But Californians should not stress over the trend; other states will thrive from the benefits of those who will contribute so much to their economies.

THE GREAT CALIFORNIA EXODUS:

For decades after World War II, California was a destination for Americans in search of a better life. In many people’s minds, it was the state with more jobs, more space, more sunlight, and more opportunity. They voted with their feet, and California grew spectacularly (its population increased by 137 percent between 1960 and 2010). However, this golden age of migration into the state is over. For the past two decades, California has been sending more people to other American states than it receives from them. Since 1990, the state has lost nearly 3.4 million residents through this migration.

This study describes the great ongoing California exodus, using data from the Census, the Internal Revenue Service, the state’s Department of Finance, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, and other sources. We map in detail where in California the migrants come from, and where they go when they leave the state. We then analyze the data to determine the likely causes of California’s decline and the lessons that its decline holds for other states.

The data show a pattern of movement over the past decade from California mainly to states in the western and southern U.S.: Texas, Nevada, and Arizona, in that order, are the top magnet states. Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Idaho, and Utah follow. Rounding out the top ten are two southern states: Georgia and South Carolina.

A finer-grained regional analysis reveals that the main current of migration out of California in the past decade has flowed eastward across the Colorado River, reversing the storied passages of the Dust Bowl era. Southern California had about 55 percent of the state’s population in 2000 but accounted for about 65 percent of the net out-migration in the decade that followed. More than 70 percent of the state’s net migration to Texas came from California’s south.

What has caused California’s transformation from a “pull in” to a “push out” state? The data have revealed several crucial drivers. One is chronic economic adversity (in most years, California unemployment is above the national average). Another is density: the Los Angeles and Orange County region now has a population density of 6,999.3 per square mile—well ahead of New York or Chicago. Dense coastal areas are a source of internal migration, as people seek more space in California’s interior, as well as migration to other states. A third factor is state and local governments’ constant fiscal instability, which sends at least two discouraging messages to businesses and individuals. One is that they cannot count on state and local governments to provide essential services—much less, tax breaks or other incentives. Second, chronically out-of-balance budgets can be seen as tax hikes waiting to happen.