Kamala’s Last Hurrah: A Month of Missteps Incoming

by CAPT. SETH KESHEL

It was clear late last week that Democrats were foaming at the mouth to un-ass Joe Biden from behind the Resolute Desk.  I wrote about the hidden impact of the failed assassination attempt against Donald Trump and the data that likely drove them insane by analyzing voter registration data from Maricopa County in the wake of that shooting, and lo and behold, Joe Biden has (apparently) announced he won’t be running for reelection in November.

While the senile political retread who somehow received 81 million ballots in the last election may be on the outs, there is no guarantee Kamala Harris is going to be the nominee – although I would highly advise against putting your money on anyone else.  Biden and the Clintons, along with other top Democrats, have backed her for the top billing, but the Obamas are notoriously absent in joining them.  That means we could be setting up for a bait-and-switch at the Democrat National Convention in late August, with a Clinton-Obama power struggle on full display.

For now, let’s go with the chalk pick and wargame as if it will be Harris atop the ticket as we pontificate today, 106 days from Election Day.  Here are four immediate impacts of her becoming the likely Democrat presidential nominee this late in the game:

I.                             Immediate Stumbling Blocks

The ability of the Democrat Party to switch out Harris is immediately hindered by what will likely be their own unwillingness to make the change.  Now that Biden is toast, she must remain as presidential nominee if the ticket is to keep all Biden-Harris funds, which are already in the toilet since the debate that brought us to where we are today.  If anyone else is nominated in the top slot, that candidate will be starting from scratch on fundraising with many of the top Democrat donors already bailing and Harris not known for her ability to establish meaningful rapport with other people with her abrasive, condescending personality.

 
Emerging this late in the game presents other issues for her with several states on extremely tight timelines pertaining to switching out the nominee, particularly Nevada, Georgia, and Wisconsin.  I know of a few lawsuits that are going to be flying to prevent the change, although given who runs these states, I am hesitant to say I expect them to be effective, let alone accepted for consideration.  Harris is going to have to spend the first third of the time remaining between now and the election simply trying to clinch the party nomination, and in the meantime…

II.                         Left-Wing Likability Problem

Matt Goodwin points out that Harris is the most disliked among Vice Presidents in political history, especially in modern times:

 
She seemed like a formidable Democrat opponent when she announced her candidacy in 2019 because she is the DEI dream come to life – brown-skinned, woman, leftist, and a condescending feminist.  Then came Tulsi Gabbard and the unfortunate circumstances that required Harris to engage voters, and a very quick exit after the Iowa caucus.  Oddly enough, for a radical leftist, she has a very tattered record with minority voters because of her reign of terror as California’s Attorney General that resulted in a massive wave of lockups for miniscule offenses.  Gabbard’s bloodying of Harris is one for the ages and still worth a few chuckles today.

I’ve mentioned a few times that I think, without entrenched election rigging, Trump would be assembling a 1972 Nixon coalition – one that not only pulled in the GOP base, but got “once in a lifetime” voters that still account for the only GOP presidential wins of all-time in some counties, simply because he was running against a radical leftist named George McGovern, who wound up carrying only the electoral votes of Massachusetts and Washington, D.C.  Since then, Democrats have taken great care not to nominate open radicals:

·      Carter, 1976 and 1980 – Southerner from a family of farmers

·      Mondale, 1984 – Carter V.P. and member of Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party

·      Dukakis, 1988 – three-term governor of Massachusetts viewed as a moderate

·      B. Clinton, 1992 and 1996 – Southern governor with more conservative reforms than suggested by ideologies of many of today’s GOP members

·      Gore, 2000 – Clinton V.P. and former U.S. Senator from Tennessee, a little bit on the left when it comes to environmental issues

·      Kerry, 2004 – elite from Massachusetts who tried to run on his service in the Vietnam War

·      Obama, 2008 and 2012 – exception noted below

·      H. Clinton, 2016 – former First Lady of the U.S. and of a southern state, tried to run on her “Goldwater girl” past and her long list of positions held

·      Biden, 2020 – “Scranton Joe” did all he could to appeal to working-class voters and appear to sever ties with the “elite”

Obama was a radical from the beginning but was a novelty candidate viewed as “hope and change” for getting Americans out of the economic decline viewed as being the fault of Republicans, who held the White House for two terms and both federal legislative chambers for the first six years of the Bush presidency.  He ran in a perfect storm in 2008 that pushed all but two of today’s so-called swing states over 10% margins with records shares and record turnouts of the minority vote, a big share of suburban women and moderates, and in a time in which the Democrats still held power with the white working-class and unions in the Industrial and Upper Midwest.  Several states flipped to Democrats that year that have not come back to this day for a GOP presidential nominee.  Even so, the press expended great effort to highlight his support for traditional marriage and the fact that he was a U.S. Senator from a midwestern state.

This campaign, should Harris be nominated, will be the first one in 52 years in which the Democrats are fronting an open leftist radical.  From her own mouth, early in her Vice Presidency:

I am Kamala Harris, my pronouns are she and her, and I am a woman sitting at the table wearing a blue suit.

Fundamentally, this should alienate almost all religious groups and send the lost Bush-McCain-Romney suburban coalition back to their standard Republican tendencies now that they will no longer be able to look good in front of their families at Thanksgiving by supporting this rot.  I can think of no voting group, minorities included, that Harris should be stronger with than Joe Biden would have been.

III.                      Impact to the Map

While we need a few weeks to confirm what is likely, I do not anticipate any outcome changes to my working Electoral College analysis, although I think her presence atop the ticket fundamentally makes everything stronger for President Trump.  Safe red states (margins over 10%) will be even redder, and some safe blue states will potentially park within that 10% – states like New Jersey, Colorado, or Delaware.

 
Those 370 electoral votes, barring a sudden and unexpected change, are almost certainly going as I’ve indicated (reflective of law, election fraud, and reality), although like I’ve outlined above, I will probably downgrade a few of the blue electoral votes to “likely” (within 10%).

 
We may get some action on the ones I’ve identified as “leaners,” those that are predictable and likely to either side but within 10%.  I think Harris’s nomination, along with the existing Latino rightward shift, pushes Texas back into the “safe” category, and RFK, Jr., making any of the other ballots may create true tossups or even Trump leaners out of the rest.  I have written recently how I think Trump’s only hope of carrying Minnesota, given the corruption of the Twin Cities, is to have RFK, Jr., consume disaffected Democrat votes.

 
Early polling also indicates Harris performing worse in every decisive state (swing state), which is unsurprising given that almost all of them are working-class states that have been devastated by open borders and the impacts of ridiculous global trade agreements.  That can mean only one of two things, that she is being sent in to serve as a sacrificial lamb, or she is going to need to…

IV.                     Craft a Narrative

After the requisite 24-hour panic period has passed, in which every conspiracy theory is plotted out, the consensus is that Harris is a miserable candidate incapable of winning.  In fact, I’ve seen more than a few pontificators, Sundance at The Conservative Treehouse included, suggest Harris could be serving as cannon fodder for a Trump win that can be shrugged off as “Oh, the expected nominee had to bow out so close to the election, what did you expect?”

If, however, the goal is to deny Trump the White House at all costs, more fortification is necessary.  Recent statements, logic, and posturing seem to rule out Newsom (same state as Harris), Gretchen Whitmer (no appetite for a woman-woman ticket), Hillary Clinton (like she would ever take second place), and Michelle Obama (fairy tale).

Enter Josh Shapiro.

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