It probably felt a bit like this in the months before the Six-Day War of 1967, when Israellaunched its hugely successful preemptive strike against Egypt and its allies. Forty-five years later, the little country that is the most easterly outpost of Western civilization has Iran in its sights.
There are five reasons (I am told) why Israel should not attack Iran:
1. The Iranians would retaliate with great fury, closing the Strait of Hormuz and unleashing the dogs of terror in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iraq.
2. The entire region would be set ablaze by irate Muslims; the Arab Spring would turn into a frigid Islamist winter.
3. The world economy would be dealt a death blow in the form of higher oil prices.
4. The Iranian regime would be strengthened, having been attacked by the Zionists its propaganda so regularly vilifies.
5. A nuclear-armed Iranis nothing to worry about. States actually become more risk-averse once they acquire nuclear weapons.
I am here to tell you that these arguments are wrong.
Let’s take them one by one.
The threat of Iranian retaliation. The Iranians will very likely be facing not one, not two, but three U.S. aircraft carriers. Two are already in the Persian Gulf: CVN 72 Abraham Lincoln and CVN 70 Carl Vinson. A third, CVN 77 George H.W. Bush, is said to be on its way from Norfolk, Va.
Yes, I know President Obama is a noble and saintly man of peace who uses unmanned drones only to assassinate America’s foes in unprecedented numbers after wrestling with his conscience for anything up to … 10 seconds. But picture the scene once described to me by a four-star general. It is not the proverbial 3 a.m. but 11 p.m. in the White House (7 a.m. in Israel). The phone rings.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: Mr. President, we have reliable intelligence that the Israeli Air Force is in the air and within an hour of striking suspected nuclear facilities in Iran.
POTUS: Damn. What should I do?
CJCS: Mr. President, I want to recommend that you provide the Israelis with all necessary support to limit the effectiveness of Iranian retaliation.
POTUS: But those [expletives deleted] never ran this past me. They went behind my back, goddammit.
CJCS: Yes, sir.
POTUS: Why the hell should I lift a finger to help them?
CJCS: Because if the Iranians close the Strait of Hormuz, we will see oil above $200 a barrel.
POTUS [after a pause]: Just a moment. [Whispers] How am I doing in Florida?
David Axelrod [also whispering]: Your numbers suck.
POTUS: OK, General, line up those bunker busters.
The eruption of the entire Muslim world. All the crocodiles of Africa could not equal the fake tears that will be shed by the Sunni powers of the region if Iran’s nuclear ambitions are checked.
The double-dip recession. Oil prices are on the way down thanks to concerted efforts of Europe’s leaders to reenact the Great Depression. An Israel-Iran war would push them up, but the Saudis stand ready to pump out additional supplies to limit the size of the spike.
The writer here, Niall Ferguson, is a good guy but he either runs out of room or doesn’t want to trouble us with the nasty details of some of the sects beliefs inside Islam.
On point #5, A nuclear-armed Iran is nothing to worry about. States actually become more risk-averse once they acquire nuclear weapons. Mr. Ferguson only says he has “no doubt that they would take full advantage of such a lethal lever.”
Yes, but why is he so sure when Obama can gather many to HIS side who say Iran would act like Germany or the old USSR in their loving their children, too?
Because, if we know history, we know the Mahdists do NOT love their children!
Remember when Iran’s Mahdists were warring with Saddam’s Iraq?
They used little children as human mine sweepers!
They actually bought hundreds of thousands of plastic keys from China.
They put those keys on necklaces for the children to wear.
They told those children that being blown up would send them to paradise where their key would open the door.
The Mahdists do not love their subjects, man, woman OR child.
Remember when the Mahdists first began building their nuclear research facilities?
They forced massive numbers of their civilian population to live on the outskirts of each facility.
Mahdists hope for and try to instigate chaos because only worldwide chaos brings back the 12th Imam.
What better ploy to get chaos on earth than a nuclear bomb or two?
Any retaliation that kills their own civilian population means nothing to the Mahdists.
According to their teaching these are ”inadvertent martyrs.”
They just don’t care.
I think Mr. Ferguson knows all this.
Is he afraid to scare us?