Is Ukraine Steamrolling Russia?

by Larry Johnson

At last. After six months of surrendering territory, Ukraine is on the move and Russia is retreating. Right? Not so fast. Ukraine tried and failed to penetrate the Russian lines around Kherson. That fizzled and Ukraine suffered enormous casualties. Russia did not.
 
But wait. Ukraine has now unleashed a new offensive in the north around Kharkov and has made some gains. Gee, what a coincidence. The same week that the United States with NATO convened a Ramstein Conference to assess Ukraine’s progress in the war, a gigantic triumph is being trumpeted on the internet. Russia, finally, is really, really on its heels and on the verge of surrendering the Donbas to the marauding Ukrainian troops. At least that is what Ukraine and its NATO allies are saying and the press is happily pushing that meme.
 
Now, back to reality. The Russian allied forces that faced the brunt of the Ukrainian attack are not the Russian army’s front line troops. It is a mixture of Donbas militia and Russian national guard. When faced with a Ukrainian force that has more troops it should not be a surprise that the outgunned militia and police would retreat and surrender territory. A tactical retreat is sound military strategy.
 
But what kind of territory? We are talking rural villages and small cities. These are not critical industrial centers. Rather than reinvent the wheel, I encourage you to read the analysis from Andrei Martyanov, The Saker:

 … once real information, not from telegram channels’ ignoramuses and defeatists, not to mention IPSO trolls,  started to trickle down from Kharkov a much different picture began to emerge. For starters, the main “fix” of Kiev regime’s propagandists–Balakleya (which is operationally not that important to start with)–is still not taken by VSU completely and, as was stated yesterday, Russian reserves are pouring in. Most importantly, VSU is now in the open and this may come as a surprise to Pentagon planners and commanders in charge of this “cascade” of the “offensives” which are blocked as I type it. The new “direction” could be Liman, but it seems that Pentagon will have to deal with the numbers of KIAs of VSU, which already yesterday were reported in excess of 5,000 KIAs and many more thousands of wounded, which any NATO army, including the US Army simply cannot sustain. In general, NATO’s “planning” is unprofessional and is having huge issues with understanding of the “echeloning” offensive operations and the use of reserves.
 
So, let’s leave it at that and continue to observe the whole thing as it unfolds, I am sure we will have second and third waves of IPSO and Western media campaign in promoting “successes” of VSU. I will only reiterate my point–those who really want to follow events, forget about all those “reporters” and telegram channels’, 99% of them are utter unprofessional BSers. In fact, many allegedly “pro-Russian” or “patriotic” channels play INTO the hands of Western and Ukie propaganda without even understanding it. I personally view Yuri Podolyaka as an IPSO asset and increasingly open enemy of SMO.
 
Meanwhile, EU continues to parade itself as a freak-show.

More:

In Russian there is an expression “this is unpleasant/upsetting but not dangerous” (это обидно, но не опасно).  I think that this fully applies here: nobody in Russia is particularly happy about what is taking place (except maybe the Russian General Staff IF we assume that this is all a big trap the Russians deliberately created, and there is some evidence for that as the force concentrations prior to this attack were reported by numerous observers, so it was hardly a secret that the Ukronazis were about to attack somewhere in the northeast).  But we need to really keep aware of the proportions of what is happening: after six months of warfare, this is the first and only Ukrainian attack which shows some real capabilities, and it is all limited to a rather narrow corridor within the Russian tactical defenses only!  As I said, these are strong tactical attacks and clashes, but the size of them does not even amount to a real “battle” or “offensive”, at least not in the military sense of the word.
 
Now if the Russians do not take back the initiative over this week-end, then things might seriously become alarming and we could speak of the first operational success of the Ukronazis and their Neocon masters.
 
Could that happen?  Yes, absolutely.
 
Should we assume it will?  No, this is too soon to come to such a conclusion.
 
So wait and see is the best I can suggest at this point in time.
 
One more thing: it appears that the Ukronazis have, yet again, attempted an amphibious landing near the ZNPP and, yet again, their fast attack craft were destroyed before they could reach land.  Yet another attempt to get a desperately needed “peremoga” which ended up in disaster.

Moon Of Alabama:

Here is the latest from the Izium front where a Ukrainian counterattack made a deep push into Russian held lines.
 

Source: Militaryland.net – bigger
 
The map shows 5 Ukrainian brigades within the bulge the Ukrainian forces have formed to the north of Izium. Several more brigades are pushing up from the south of Izium. With about 3,000 men per brigade this is a major force of some 30,000+ soldiers plus likely reserves.
 

Source: Rybar – bigger
 
After the light Luhanks Peoples’ Republic forces who had held that area were overrun by the ISIS style attack of the Ukrainian forces, the Russian army has pulled up its heavy reserves. Mi-26 helicopters brought in armored vehicles and soldiers to stop the attacks wherever possible.
 
The Ukrainians are also pulling in heavy weapons for a new push along their front lines.
 
Armored land bound Russian forces are coming in from the east and north. The Russian air force and army aviation have air superiority and pound the Ukrainian lines.
 
We can expect a lot of attacks on the quite thin and long supply lines of the Ukrainian spearhead. The town of Shevchenkove, where several big roads and train lines cross, may be a weak point of the Ukrainian offensive. Retaking it would cut the main Ukrainian supply lines in the area.
 
…This operation is THE big push by the Ukrainian military. Most of the heavier armored vehicles on the front seem to be from foreign countries.
 
If the Ukrainian army is willing to throw all heavy reserves into this operation, as it seem to do, the Russian army will have a chance to give it a decisive blow.
 
The alternative is to retreat to later fight elsewhere.

This entire operation has one point–persuade Washington and NATO that Ukraine still has a chance to succeed. But this means ignoring the fact that Kherson, Mariupol, Luhansk and most of Donetsk is still controlled by Russia and Russian allied forces. It also ignores the fact that Ukraine’s concentration of forces in this narrow area (see the maps highlighted by The Saker) creates a ripe target for Russian air, rocket, missile and artillery forces to hit.
 

 
My suggestion–hold your water and go lay down on the fainting couch. This is not the German Army at the outskirts of Moscow. This is not Von Paulus rolling into Stalingrad for certain victory. If calling this a tactical defeat makes you feel warm and fuzzy, shout away and cheer Ukraine. What is not being shown, yet, are the horrendous casualties the Ukrainians are suffering.
 
If this really was a decisive triumph why are foreign journalists being kept from the front line of the attack to record the impressive Ukrainian victory? It is one thing to spin propaganda out from the safe confines of Kiev. It is a whole different ballgame to go to where the battle is taking place and recording what is actually taking place. The dog ain’t barking:

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