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Is The US Economy Really Bulgaria in Disguise? Evidence from Housing, GDP and Employment

Anthony B. Sanders @ Confounded Interest:

US News had this cheerleading article for President Obama’s second inauguration called “Obama’s Inauguration Present: The Economic Recovery Is Finally Here

“When Congress pumped billions of dollars of stimulus spending into the economy, it sputtered and wheezed like a patient having a heart attack. Now that Congress is raising taxes and cutting back on stimulus measures, the economy seems more resilient than expected. For President Barack Obama, it could mean a much more durable economy over the next four years than he enjoyed in his first term.”

The Great Recession, according to the NBER, ended in June 2009, less than six months after President Obama took office. Real GDP growth remains very “European” (sub 2%). It is now January 2013 and we are still stuck in the economic doldrums.

In fact, US economic growth is not much better than the EU poverty leader Bulgaria at 0.9% (although Bulgaria has had considerably higher real GDP growth prior to 2009).

Bulgarian unemployment is rising and is wedged between US unemployment and U6 unemployment/partial employment.

Even Bulgarian house prices suffered during the Great Recession and have stabilized.

Much like US house prices.

According to The Heritage Institute, Bulgaria is ranked 60th in the world for Economic Freedom whilethe US is ranked 10th (and falling). Within the USA, according to The Mercatus Center, Massachusetts –0.393, Hawaii –0.445, California –0.487, New Jersey –0.505 and New York rank lowest on the US State Freedom Index. Why am I not surprised?

Given the USA’s massive (and growing) government debt, we are more like the larger Japan in many ways.

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