I often think that conservatives make too big a deal out of strategic clarity. Sometimes (sometimes) clarity isn’t such a great thing.
That said, clarity is often the best policy.
Obama has presented himself to the world for three years as a weak man embarrassed and ashamed of America’s might, chiefly obsessed with making apologies and insulting old (colonialist) allies, and who flinches from the hard way.
He’s been clear on his policy of appeasement towards Iran, which emboldens Iran, and which may cause them to think they really can block traffic in the Strait with impunity.
There is one snag in that chain of reasoning: It’s an election year, and Obama is as a weak in the polls as he is in world leadership.
We may wind up exchanging shots precisely because Obama has presented himself as so craven, and now reaches for the military option out of a different sort of craveneness.
This could all just be saber-rattling, and Obama’s own rattled saber might induce the Iranians to but their own saber away.
Iran will not be successful in closing Hormuz if it tries. Oh, they can spike oil temporarily and cause some other problems, but we have the power to keep the Strait open. The question is: How stupid is Iran, and will they harrass shipping in desperation?
I think they fold, luckily for Sir Golfs-a-lot who is irrevelant in this discussion. American policy has long been set on this subject, and even though Obama loves to coddle Shia, the West will keep the Strait open.
Operation Praying Mantis…look it up