German Geologist: IPCC Models A Failure, “Have No Chance Of Success”…Sees Possible 0.2°C Of Cooling By 2020

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P Gosselin:

o-author of “The Neglected Sun“/geologist Dr. Sebastian Lüning made a presentation at the 7th International Conference for Climate and Energy in Mannheim, Germany, back in April. EIKE has now put it up. The presentation is in German and so I am providing below a round up of the main points made by Lüning.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9NRsB6TMlg&list=UUiiymOmMRMZV9GZSsfTX4qw&feature=share[/youtube]

Lüning starts by reminding the listeners that geology is key to understanding the past, which in turn can help us to better understand the present and provide valuable clues of what to expect in the future.

The German geologist is a specialist in the geology of Africa. The scientitific literature shows that the Sahara was green a mere 6000 years ago, and his slide at the 0:45 mark show remnants of that time.

Lü_1

Remnants of a green Sahara, 6000 years ago.

Back then, in the mid Holocene, it was 1 – 2°C warmer than it is today and the Sahara was teeming with wildlife.

At the 2:20 mark Lüning shows a slide of cave painting, in the middle of the Sahara, depicting wildlife seen at the time:

Lü_2

Cave paintings of wildlife in the middle of the Sahara.

The changes over the Holocener period clearly are greater than what we are seeing today and are due to natural flcutucations, primarily solar activity. Lüning adds at the 3:40 mark:

This is a geological context that unfortunately is lost on many people like physicists who believe their formulae more than they believe the true facts.”

Greenland is cooling

At the 4:10 mark Lüning brings up the Axforf paper of 2013, which shows Greenland was “2 – 3°C warmer 6000 to 4000 years ago than it is today” and that the ice survived.

At the 5:00 mark he presents a 2013 paper by Lecavalier et al showing that Greenland has cooled 2.5°C over the last 8000 years.

Lü_3

Greenland has cooled 2.5°C over the last 8000 years.

On his slide Lüning writes:

Despite the thousands of years of continuous warmth, the dramatic ice collapse never occurred.”

At the 6:00 mark Lüning shows a chart from Bob Carter, also showing nothing unusual is happening, Co2 playing only a minor role.

At the 7:30 mark Lüning brings up the IPCC 1990 millennium temperature chart that distinctly shows a warmer Medieval Warm Period and a little ice age. At the 8:30 various hockey sticks are shown, which Lüning describes as “incorrect”. “Even Michael Mann had to admit that he had exaggerated”.

Climate driven by solar activity

Starting at the 9:45 mark, his charts show that solar activity correlates well with temperature, which Lüning calls “a surprisingly good match”. He then presents the various solar cycles that the sun undergoes, going into the works of Gerard Bond, who made temperature reconstructions using layers of ice-rafted material in the North Atlantic. Lüning calls the synchronicity between solar activity and temperature found by Bond “stunning”. See chart 13:20 mark below)

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Curt,

As a geologist, I got to tell you this is old news. What appears to be different is Luning’s bold “this is the way it is” presentation. I will be eager to see the English translation in its entirely.

(Did I just write that it is bold to tell the truth?!)

It is old news, but is widely ignored and suppressed by chicken little!

@Randy: Oh is that what Al Gore and his BFF Barack Hussain Obama are calling themselves now? It would be appropriate.

I find that very interesting, the science of the ground , underground ,seem to me a good source of knowledge,
we see, i think more of the sink hole and ground mouvement now?
or is it that we pay more attention to it happening, because, in our own background,
NICE POST, P. Gosselin
thank you CURT,

Antarctic sea ice has hit its second all-time record maximum this week. The new record is 2.112 million square kilometers above normal. Until the weekend just past, the previous record had been 1.840 million square kilometers above normal, a mark hit on December 20, 2007, as I reported here, and also covered in my book.

NOAA Reinstates July 1936 As The Hottest Month On Record

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, criticized for manipulating temperature records to create a warming trend, has now been caught warming the past and cooling the present…(snip)

…“Two years ago during the scorching summer of 2012, July 1936 lost its place on the leaderboard and July 2012 became the hottest month on record in the United States,” Watts wrote. “Now, as if by magic, and according to NOAA’s own data, July 1936 is now the hottest month on record again. The past, present, and future all seems to be ‘adjustable’ in NOAA’s world.”

NASA Launches Satellite to Study Global Warming After Revelation of Faked Data

Five years after its previous satellite crashed right after lift off and during the same month that a NASA climate scientist was reported as having faked global warming data, the American space agency is spending nearly $500 million to launch a new satellite into space to monitor the effects of global warming.

In June, it was reported that scientists at NASA and NOAA were seemingly manipulating temperature data to overstate the extent of “global warming” in the 20th century.

As Breitbart News reported on June 23, raw data seems to show that there is little if any evidence of global warming and even some evidence of global cooling. “However, once the data has been adjusted—i.e. fabricated by computer models–20th century ‘global warming’ suddenly looks much more dramatic.”

Now the space agency is readying to launch a new satellite dedicated to monitoring global warming. But it is a replacement for one that went disastrously wrong three years ago, which is itself a replacement for one that went wrong five years ago.

Ditto
that is very good, i heard it on the news a few days ago,
but not as WELL DETAILED explained as you did,
thank you, BYE,

Ditto

Ain’t it just amazin’? Who’d a thunk those things?

CLIMAT DRIVEN BY SOLAR ACTIVITY HE SAID,
NOW WHAT IS DRIVING THE SUN TO HAVE THOSE ACTIVITIES ?
might it be a normal thing?

@ilovebeeswarzone:

It’s simple variations in the solar burn. The Sun has no temperature regulator.

Ditto
they say the solar variation cause the climat change,
I WOULD TAKE YOUR WORD BEFORE THEM,
IS THAT RIGHT?
I DON’T THINK THE SOLAR VARIATION ARE ALL THE SAME,
BYE

@ilovebeeswarzone:

Of course it is the solar variation that causes temperature variation. There is no burn regulator on the Sun. There are going to be periods of warmer and cooler solar radiation and there isn’t a damn thing humans can do to change that.

NASA and NOAA have admitted that some of their scientists improperly fudged their numbers by plugging them into climate models, rather than using the temperature data as gathered. What that means is that not only hasn’t there been a warming period, with the correct numbers used, it now seems that there has been a cooling trend since July 1936, (the hottest month on record -since they have been keeping records).

Ditto
they put it as if it”s anormality scaring the readers not learned on the subject.
and worse is they ask for support of moneys to maintain their research,
we should be suspicious of those researchers, they start to research and have fun doing it like a sport,
and as soon as they get known they use it to take other to pay to continue what is fort them a fun game,
thank you for info,
bye

It’s not an anomaly, it’s the perfectly normal cyclical divergence in solar output.

There’s no need to send money to folks who are just re-verifying what we’ve already known about the Sun for decades.

If you turn on your faucet, the temperature of the water is going to vary due to the current ground temperature. If everyone will send me donations to help me reach my goal of $20,000,000 dollars, I can continue my research into why ground temperatures have this effect on water lines.

See how it works?

Ditto
yes that much money is but a pitance,
you would find the secrets before spending a nickle,
i just found out the biggest matter is the black matter,
we make .03 of it in the universe and the DARK matter make 23/CENT OF IT, MOST OF UNIVERSE IS DARK,
i’m going back to the PROF TO CHECK IF I GOT IT RIGHT ON THAT ONE,
I JUST MADE A CHANGE,
bye

HAPPY 4rth JULY to ALL FLOPPING ACES PEOPLE, I LOVE YOU ALL,
hey check this one, BUDWIZER GAVE 2 MILLION FOR THE WARRIORS,
starting with CURT YOU ARE THE BEST AMERICA PRODUCE,

Bee

Same to you and all the usual suspects.

Happy Independence Day!

MAKAYA
THANK YOU,
HOPE YOU HAVE A GOOD DAY,
BYE,