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George Zimmerman: The Most Likely Scenario

As I’ve written previously, the changes in statements of W-6 (John), W-12 (wife of w-13) and W-2 (the sister without her contacts who saw, and then didn’t see, two figures chasing each other) are not a big deal.

Now that I’ve listened to all of the witness recordings, and most of them several times, I think the most important witnesses are W-11 and W-20, W-13, and W-6. They heard or saw the most, and were in the best position to discern what was happening. None has the whole story, but each of their accounts mesh and each fills in gaps in the accounts of the others, combining to make a coherent and consistent chronology. [More]

[Here is my latest map with the house numbers removed from witness locations as the parties are arguing that information should not be made public]

Listen to all John’s interviews: He’s positive that Trayvon, the darker complected man with the dark shirt, was on top during the physical struggle, and Zimmerman, the lighter complected man with the red and white shirt, was on the bottom, and that during the struggle, George Zimmerman was trying to get up.

Almost every neighbor verifies hearing John say, “Hey what’s going on” and/or “I’m going to call 911.” This includes W-3 who lives next door to him on one side, and W-11 and 20, who live next door to him on the other side, W-1, one of the two sisters across the way, and W-19, also across the way, who was getting ready to let her dog out.

Look at the daytime photos in the discovery taken the day after the shooting, by Crime Scene Tech Diana Smith. She chose what to photograph, most likely based on what she understood to be the key locations that would either corroborate or refute GZ’s version, as related to the officers who interviewed him the night before and the witness statements obtained the night before.

Her photos include the place GZ said his car was parked, the walk along the top of the T to Retreat View Circle and back, the front and back of 2861 Retreat View Circle, the back, side and front of 1211 Twin Trees Lane, the place the body was located behind 1221 Twin Trees Lane, and the view down “the T” towards the house Trayvon was staying.

The witnesses whose homes had shared backyards on the T between Retreat View Circle and Twin Trees Lane, and who lived at the top of the T, all first heard unidentifiable noises, then fighting type sounds, then yells for help, and then the shot. They all say the noises grew louder and fighting more apparent as they came down the T where they ended up behind 1221 Twin Trees Lane in John’s backyard.

No one saw the beginning of the confrontation or struggle. But witnesses heard the onset. W-11 and W-20, who live in the house at the corner of the T and Twin Trees Lane had windows on both the T side and the backyard side, as did W-13 and W-12. W-11 and 20 heard what sounded a scuffle coming from the Northwest, which would be right on the sidewalk leading back to GZ’s car, just west of the T. They then heard the sounds come around to the back, as if they turned a corner onto the T, behind their closed-in porch. The sounds grew louder and W-20 heard “help” — maybe 20 times. They called 911 and stayed upstairs. They heard their neighbor, W-6, call out ask what’s going on and saying he was calling 911.

Officer Serino says on page 5 of his 13 page report dated March 13, that he listened to W-11’s 911 call and heard “help” 14 times in 38 seconds before the shot.

[snip]

Why Zimmerman reported Trayvon to the non-emergency number is a red herring. It doesn’t matter if he profiled him or unfairly suspected him of criminal activity. It doesn’t matter that he was a crime warrior. He didn’t break the law. His neighborhood watch program, set up with the assistance of the police, instructed residents to report suspicious activity. That’s what he did. He wasn’t on watch that night, he had a concealed weapons permit, and it wasn’t a crime to get out of his car to see where Trayvon had run off to, so he could tell the police when they got there.

All that matters legally is whether Trayvon Martin’s physical attack on him caused him to reasonably fear serious bodily injury. Zimmerman’s testimony, which is supported by proof of his injuries and witnesses observing the struggle, is that Martin broke his nose and banged his head against cement. He tried to get up and couldn’t. Using an objective standard, a reasonable person in that situation would fear imminent serious bodily injury if he didn’t react with force.

The state is unlikely to prevail in arguing Zimmerman was the aggressor because to be the aggressor, Zimmerman had to contemporaneously provoke the force Martin used against him. Zimmerman’s profiling of Martin and call to the non-emergency number were not contemporaneous with Martin’s attack. Even if the state could convince a judge or jury that Zimmerman was following Martin, rather than walking back to his car, rendering his pursuit a contemporaneous act, it is not an act that provokes Martin’s use of force against him. Demanding someone account for their presence does not provoke the use of force. Even if it could be construed to be provocation for using force, all it means is Zimmerman had to attempt reasonable means to extricate himself before using deadly force in response. W-6’s steadfast insistence that Zimmerman was struggling to get up and out from under Trayvon, right before the shot went off, fulfills that requirement. Zimmerman will say the same. And no witnesses saw anything different.

Zimmerman should prevail on classic self-defense at trial regardless of stand your ground. Raising stand your ground before trial gives him the possibility of a quicker win, and the opportunity to preview the state’s strategy before it gets to a jury.

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