Chris Stirewalt @ FoxNews:
Here’s a scary story for any pollster or political strategist on Halloween: a dead-heat presidential election with considerable flux in several swing states just six days before Election Day.
But here’s the really chilling part: A massive East Coast storm has worsened the most complicated, confusing polling environment since the invention of the telephone.
(Little known fact: The second sentence Alexander Graham Bell spoke into the telephone was “Mr. Watson, if the election were being held today, would you vote for Republican Rutherford Hayes or Democrat Samuel Tilden?”)
As if this closing week wasn’t enough of a phantasmagoria, there is the terrifying thought that Ohio isn’t aligning with the national polls.
The current Real Clear Politics averages of polls continue to show a national lead of about 1 point for Republican Mitt Romney but also a consistent Ohio advantage for President Obama of 2.4 points.In the past three elections, the result in Ohio has been within two points of the national popular vote, and, as Power Play readers know well, the Buckeye State has been on the winning side in every presidential election but two in the past century.
Certainly it’s possible that the polls could be predictive and Romney could suffer the same fate as Al Gore in 2000 and win the national popular vote, but fall just short in Ohio and lose the election.
And it is also possible that and Ohio could deviate from its history go for Obama even as Romney won the election. The current spread in Ohio would be within 2 points of the national average and this might be the time that after 52 years, Ohio went with the losing team.
Given his recent rise in traditionally Democratic states, Romney might be the first Republican in the 40 presidential elections in which his party has competed to win the presidency without Ohio.
But one of the reasons Ohio is so good at picking winners is that its decision has so often turned the outcome of elections. Ohio is often decisive, no mere bellwether.
