by Sean McMeekin
There has been much talk of historical analogies since Russia invaded Ukraine. Are we living through another Cuban missile crisis? Is it October 1973, when another endangered American ally—Israel—faced destruction and desperately needed arms, with the danger of Russian retaliation if escalation went too far? Or are we in 1939, on the brink of cataclysmic world war?
While history never repeats itself exactly, we should never rule out the worst-case scenario, precisely so that that we can avoid it. So it is worth revisiting the casus belli of 1939. Like Ukraine today, Poland then was a proud but overmatched buffer state with few natural barriers to stave off invasion by a more powerful neighbor from multiple directions, depending for its security on a precarious guarantee issued by distant powers in the West.
The usual story is that, after Hitler violated his pledges at Munich by moving into rump Czechoslovakia in March 1939, British opinion soured on Chamberlain’s appeasement policy, and Chamberlain woke up to the threat posed by Hitler, too late to secure the best outcome as a more forthright response to Hitler at Munich might have allowed – but still in time to resist German aggression and save the world from Nazi subjugation.
While there is truth in this, there is a more painful interpretation as well. Chamberlain, like many statesmen reacting to bad news, veered from one irrational extreme to the other in 1939, from abject appeasement of Hitler to mindless confrontation. Poland was his ostensible object of concern, but he did not really favor her cause. Chamberlain’s notorious guarantee of Poland’s “independence,” but not territorial “integrity,” reflected his ambivalence, as Poland had enlarged her territory in a series of wars since becoming independent in 1919—including at Munich, where she had seized Czechoslovak territory alongside Germany and Hungary.
Britain’s mixed messaging had devastating consequences. Despite having helped ensure that negotiations between Warsaw and Berlin over the “Polish corridor” would go nowhere by stiffening Polish resistance to Hitler, Chamberlain’s guarantee to Poland was not backed up by shipments of arms, warplanes or even loans. After the German invasion on September 1, all France offered Poland was a brief excursion across the German frontier; Britain dropped a few bombs on the Baltic coast. Shamefully, Poland was left alone on the battlefield as German armies invaded her from five different directions—until September 17, when Stalin’s armies invaded her from the east, completing her destruction.
Poland’s fate during the world war is almost too terrible for words. Her people endured horrendous repression under both Nazi and Soviet occupation, mass executions, forced labor and death camps, culminating in the Holocaust, and then Soviet occupation again, lasting for decades. Anyone who doubts what resistance meant for Poland should examine photographs of Warsaw upon its “liberation” in January 1945: a post-apocalyptic, depopulated pile of rubble, its population reduced from a prewar 1.3 million to perhaps 150,000 survivors.
The parallel to Ukraine today is not exact, but there are eerie similarities which urge caution. Putin is no Hitler, but he has certainly displayed irredentist designs on former Soviet Russian territory, from the war with Georgia over South Ossetia and Abkhazia in 2008 to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and her unofficial moves into Lugansk and the Donbass in 2014.
Like Britain and France with Poland in 1939, the U.S. has taken on Ukraine as a cause, dangling the prospect of NATO membership before her as early as 2008, supporting the “Euromaidan revolution” of 2014 which toppled a Russia-friendly government in Kyiv, and talking loudly of the need to defend Ukraine—Ukrainomania is bipartisan in Washington, one of the few issues which aligns and excites everyone who matters. When Putin finally struck this February, Russia invaded Ukraine from five directions, with Russia’s axis of advance bearing an unmistakable resemblance to the multi-pronged German invasion of Poland in 1939. Once again, despite promises of military support, Ukraine’s main sponsor has left her alone on the battlefield.
There are important differences, too. Poland also faced a Soviet invasion from the east in 1939—a sixth front on top of the first five—whereas Ukraine has nothing to fear from western NATO-member neighbors Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland. Britain and France never did get arms to Poland in 1939, whereas the U.S. has sold Ukraine Stinger and Javelin missiles.
[the_ad id=”157875″]
Putin, indeed, has a much stronger casus belli over western meddling in Ukraine than Hitler did in Poland. Britain and France had far less pull in the Warsaw of summer 1939 than the overweening influence U.S. has enjoyed in Kyiv since 2014. Putin’s claims about Ukraine committing “genocide” in the Donbass may be far-fetched. But his complaints are more credible that Western military and intelligence have turned Ukraine against the historic identity it long shared with Russia, making the country a lethally armed cat’s paw of the West – though not lethally armed enough to deter Russian aggression.
It is not as if no one knew about the dangers. From Henry Kissinger to Zbigniew Brzezinski to George Kennan, experienced American statesmen have warned that even talking about Westernizing Ukraine through NATO might be fatal to peace. As John Mearsheimer cautioned us in September 2015, “the West is leading Ukraine down the primrose path, and the end result is that Ukraine is going to get wrecked.” Mearsheimer’s prescient speech has received 21 million views on YouTube, almost half in the last few weeks, with Washington insiders and media poohbahs excoriating him as a Putin apologist, even as a petition campaign was launched to get Mearsheimer fired from the University of Chicago. We would have better off heeding his warning.
Compounding the damage, Washington’s loud championing of the Ukrainian cause has recently been accompanied by contrary signs of weakness and appeasement, from the humiliating botch of the NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer to President Biden’s hint that a “minor incursion” into Ukraine might not occasion a decisive response. Like Chamberlain veering between irrational extremes in 1938-1939, the West’s Ukraine policy has blatantly provoked Russian anxieties and offered Ukrainians the false promise of an American security umbrella, while doing nowhere near enough to actually deter Russia. Ukraine may not suffer as badly as Poland did from 1939 to 1945, but much of the country has already gotten wrecked.
The conflict in Ukraine is one of regional interests between wester Europe nd the eastern boundary of Ukraine and Russia. The is no vital National security interest for the US. Especially at a time when our own southern border threatens our very sovereignty and National security.
Kyiv – The Tragic History of Ukraine’s Capital
Your Tax Dollars at Work: Ukrainian Officials Keep Getting Caught Fleeing Country with Suitcases Full of Cash and Euros
14 billion + another 800-900 billion of our tax dollars. Who knew the Ukraine was anything but the 4th most corrupt country in the world. Looks like we just pissed away another 15 billion. At this point I say you fu€is are on your own.
Any bets on how much of this round of billions in aid to Ukraine is working it way back to the big guy and other corruptocrats in DC. This may have been their last rodeo.
That’s a lot of cash for the wife of Ukrainian politician…
It’s a mere pittance compared to Putin’s reported $20 billion, but it’s a good start.
The US is being used as a pawn for European interests.
biden is all too willing to go along as he sees it causing imminent damage to America
Another rogue CIA set up, how do these Ukrainian Nazis instantly become expert drone operators?
All the MSM lying mockingbird bastards using the same propaganda, often debunked on the internet in 2.5 seconds.
Recent history is much more telling on understanding the conflict. Look to our own State Dept.
Trump propagandists are being used as the pawns of Vladimir Putin’s propagandists.
Site some evidence
When you find those “Trump propagandists”, let us know. They must be hiding behind the “pee-tape”.
We’re holding our government accountable.
There’s nothing more Constitutional, democratic, or freedom-loving than that.
The US had a hand in this war and we demand to know how much of one, and how much money Biden got in that country.
FOX News, 03/21/22 – Holocaust survivor, 96, is killed in Ukraine –
There’s a ‘cheap historical parallel’ for possible consideration—in case anyone is actually having trouble seeing parallels between Vladimir Putin and Adolph Hitler.
It’s definitely Nazis fighting Russians, but not much more.
The old “Putin is Hilter” propaganda point is so two-years ago, buddy.
Let’s find a list of American law-makers and politicians who had “investments” in Ukraine. Let’s talk about why only two countries have social credit scores, the obvious one being China, and the one being ignored is Ukraine. Let’s talk about how the crisis allowed Zelensky to disband political parties in a democracy (always a good “reason” for you fascists to kill democracy, afterall).
Let’s talk about the fascistic move to require EVs in America rather than let capitalism do it’s thing. Let’s talk about how Musk, the god-father of working EV, is completely ignored by Biden’s “EV summit”
What are you assholes up to? I mean, really?
And if you haven’t watched the HUNDREDS of videos of Ukrainians plastic-wrapping other Ukrainians to poles and beating their bare asses with belts and chains, you really should.
You might stop propagandizing for satan, and instead find Jesus.
Putin’s propaganda videos tend to be seen for what they are. Cranking them out is the full-time occupation of a vast, state-funded Russian disinformation apparatus. How haven’t you figured that out yet?
The real question is what state is funding your full-time occupation? Either is Soros, or it’s actually Social Security.
Kind of the same thing, at this point.
And I haven’t seen any “Putin Propaganda Videos” since Russia is cut off from the internet.
The Democrat state-run propaganda videos seem to fill the space completely, with little room for anyone to use their brain.
Which is the plan, of course.
03/21/22 – As Mariupol hangs on, the extent of the horror not yet known
Ukraine in not our problem soy boy
A murderous lunatic rolling his tanks through a neighboring nation up to the edge of NATO is ‘not our problem’?
So how’s the weather today on Planet Trump?
Sunny…with zero chance of Putin invading anyone…because Trump has him handled.
Hope that New World Order is worth it to you and your masters.
The rest of us will all be dead.
Yup
Regional territorial dispute not in our vital National security interests
It has too be a terrible day if you are a democrat when the WaPo comes out and joins the NY slimes validating the laptop from hell in its entirety
Um, yes….Putin is invading Ukraine.
Remember when non-Leftists said Russia was a threat?
Bet you do now.
Mitt Romney was very clear on the point. You hate him. So was John McCain, whom you also hated. Obama tried being conciliatory, pulling missiles out of Poland, reducing NATO pressures on Putin. We saw how that worked out. Putin just became more aggressive and willing to act out.
Trump thinks Putin is making genius moves, grabbing some really great property.
I don’t know who you are talking to, boy. Try something else on that one.
Obama staging a coup and installing his own puppet in 2014 is not “conciliatory”. It’s an act of war.
Parse and distort Trump’s words all you want. It won’t change the truth. Putin didn’t invade during Trump’s watch. Trump handled him. No Colbert jokes can change that.
But Putin is invading now. That’s because of Biden. That’s because of our rigged election.
That’s partially because of you.
Have you decided how to apologize to the mothers of dead Ukrainian children yet?
How is It never would have happened with Trump consistent with What Putin is doing isn’t America’s problem?
I have trouble reconciling those two claims without considering the possibility of schizophrenia.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene Exposes Allegations of Torture, Crimes Against Humanity by Pro-Ukrainian Forces
Marjorie Taylor Greene is bat-shit crazy. People in her own party have made that observation.
Obviously you are threatened by strong women
Marjorie Taylor Greene is a right-wing, Q-anon-fueled loony tune.
Your opinion is meaningless. You can not handle a strong woman.
Unlike the brilliant AOC who couldn’t figure out how to use a garbage disposal although she grew up in a (high) middle income neighborhood.
MTG ran, and made a success out of, her own business. AOC went to college and learned how to run a blender.
But then, you do have San Fran Nan who can’t seem to get her dentures in straight and is always adjusting them.
Putin’s ‘Denazifying’ Troops Kill a 96-Year-Old Concentration Camp Survivor
Admission From Zelenskyy Highlights How Biden Administration Wanted To Provoke Russia To Invade Ukraine