Jordan Schachtel @ Medium:
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the longtime director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), appeared on PBS television Friday to endorse the state of New York’s methods in fighting the novel coronavirus.
“We know that, when you do it properly, you bring down those cases. We have done it. We have done it in New York,” Fauci told interviewer Judy Woodruff.
It seems that Dr. Fauci plainly suggested that government policy and its resulting human behavior, and not the natural curve of the spread of the virus, is the reason why the COVID-19 case surge problem in New York appears to be under control.
Is Dr. Fauci and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo correct? Is New York indeed the model for the nation?
When we look at the data coming out of New York, statistical questions arise about the underreported, but potentially powerful role Mother Nature may have played in curbing the pandemic.
A new study out of the renowned Oxford University found that the Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) for COVID-19, or the percentage of the population necessary to slow the spread of the virus, sits at somewhere between 10 to 20 percent.
Dr. Suneptra Gupta, a renowned professor of theoretical epidemiology at the University of Oxford, and her team explained in their groundbreaking paper:
“Seropositivity measures of 10–20% are entirely compatible with local levels of immunity having approached or even exceeded the HIT (herd immunity threshold), in which case the risk and scale of resurgence is lower than currently perceived.”
So, did the people and politicians of New York really play an active role to “bring down the cases,” as Dr. Fauci claimed. Or instead, did the state simply run into the benefits of herd immunity?
Let’s take a look at the numbers:
According to the State of New York, there have now been over 400,000 positive cases of the novel coronavirus statewide.
Now, according to the CDC, the real estimated case count is likely ten times higher.
“Our best estimate right now is for every case reported there were actually 10 other infections,” CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield said during a June press conference.
That would put New York, with a population at around 20 million people, at over 4 million estimated cases. That’s 20 percent of the state population.