On July 4th 254 people died of the coronavirus nationwide, a 92.4% decline from the peak daily death total of 2,749 set on April 21st. These 254 deaths were the lowest number of deaths in the country from the coronavirus since March 23rd. (Yes, it’s a holiday weekend, but the overall trend lines have been straightforward for months, deaths decline on Saturday, Sunday and Monday every weekend, so there’s nothing that abnormal about these numbers. Deaths generally peak every Tuesday so if you enjoy reading fear porn, there will likely be a series of fear porn laden articles come Tuesday and Wednesday when deaths climb back up after a weekend decline).
As if that were not enough, yesterday also marked the tenth straight week of declining deaths from the coronavirus in this country, we have gone from 14,813 deaths in the week of April 20-26, an average of 2116 a day to 3611, an average of just 516 a day from June 28th to July 4th. That’s a decline of 76% in the death rate over the past ten weeks.
While I’d prefer no one ever died at all — no one hates death more than me, I wish we were all immortal — at 516 deaths a day we’re talking about roughly 7000 people dying every day in this country of something other than the coronavirus. That is, over the past week coronavirus deaths represented roughly 6% of all deaths in this country. Meaning 94% of all people in this country are dying of something other than the coronavirus. (It’s also important to note that there’s a difference between dying WITH the coronavirus and dying OF the coronavirus. Virtually every person is dying with the coronavirus in this country. Meaning those that are dying today have comorbidities, generally multiple comorbidities. So if you’re dying with, say, stage four lung cancer and you also have the coronavirus you are counted as a coronavirus death.)
Put simply, 7500 people die in the United States every day, 2.8 million every year. Even assuming the coronavirus death tallies in this country are accurate, which they clearly are not, right now the coronavirus would represent around 4.6% of all deaths in this country in a year. Again, no one hates death more than me, but can you really justify shutting down the entire country for something that increases the national mortality rate by under 5% in a year? (And this is assuming the national mortality rate in the country is even increasing at all, which might not be the case as I’ll discuss below.)
Remember we won’t truly know how many people actually died of the coronavirus until all the CDC data for the year 2020 is compiled and we can compare the overall national death rate for 2020 with 2019, 2018 and 2017, for instance. That data probably won’t arrive until several months into 2021, but in the mean time it’s worth noting weekly CDC death tallies are now below average in this country. That means less people nationwide are now dying in a week than would have been predicted based on past year’s mortality tables.
Furthermore, and I can’t believe this isn’t getting more attention, the average age of those dying of the coronavirus is older than the average age of those dying from all causes of death in this country, at least if Florida, which has some of the best public data out there, is a reliable indicator of our national trends.
Amazing graph. Look at data here. https://t.co/JGITkl0OZf
— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) July 4, 2020
Which is why there’s even an argument to be made that our death rate won’t be much different at all in 2020 than in past years. What would that argument look like? You could argue the coronavirus accelerated the death of the very ill by a month or two. If that’s true then we’ll likely see less deaths in the remainder of the year, since the very ill, who might have died in the summer, died in the late spring instead. If that thesis were true then death rates for the remainder of the year would be lower, producing final year death tallies are virtually indistinguishable from past years.
Again, we won’t know for sure until we get all this data in 2021, but in the meantime, regardless of your politics, if the media was doing an honest job, shouldn’t the lead story on Monday morning be that daily coronavirus deaths have declined by over 90% since the peak and that we’ve now gone ten straight weeks with declining death totals in this country?
Of course it should.
But instead the media will feed you fear porn.
No one on the left wants good news about the virus. They want masks; masks are a billboard for FEAR and they want the public to fear going out… and voting. They want the economy to crash again. They want misery and fear.
the slime would disagree with these numbers. notice the increase on slime fake new on how Trump is tanking-the silent majority is waiting
I checked the math on the first statistic, and I am not getting 92.4%. I am getting 90.76%…. the rest look right, but consistency is important. Wear your mask 🙂
If the daily fatality count still remains low a month from now, we might have cause for celebration.
Bear in mind that a new cases surge begins 2-3 weeks following the point of increased exposures; the resultant hospitalization surge follows 2-3 weeks after the new cases surge; and any increase in the daily death count begins 2-3 weeks after that. The exception will be those who are in the highest risk category, such as immune-compromised nursing home patients. They sometime succumb within a week of contracting the infection.
Don’t let anyone convince you that it’s already safe to throw caution to the winds. The current decline is a result of serious precautions taken weeks ago.
@Greg: What is happening greggie the rock is that as more cases are identified through testing is that the death rate goes lower. The death rate is calculated by dividing the total number of cases by the number of deaths. As the number of non-symptomatic cases increase and the number of people who are not susceptible to the virus due to their level of health, the death rate continues to lower. If the efforts to combat death due to the virus were to protect susceptible people instead of lock down the whole population, the death rate would have been much lower to begin with. That is why the death rate is comparable to the annual flu.
By the way greggie the rock, have you seen the results of real scientific studies of using hydroxychloroquine clinical trial? It shows that the death rates could have been cut in half if the Trump resisters and liberals along with the MSN had used hydroxychloroquine in the dosages and during the critical phases of the virus. So, should you and your ilk be sued for contributing to those deaths?
@Greg: The only ones that seem to be throwing caution to the wind I saw were in California, compared to Florida beaches where people were social distancing. I didnt see any older folks in either shot nor masks but they were outdoors. Older people know the drill, as long as they stay out of NY and NJ where there are serial killers elected to high offices the old and frail will live a little while longer. The younger will get herd immunity with very little death.
They seem to have you convinced that coming up positive is certain death ease up there watching the fear porn and the Karen talking heads on cable.
If you examine the graph, you see that people under 45 have a near ZERO chance of dying if they get covid19.
Perhaps it is time to put the children back in school and get the younger workers back on the job.
Let older people beware based on their own sense of responsibility and desire to live (or not.)
We all know how to wash our hands and wear masks.
But no, here, in Utah, masks became mandatory since July 1st!
July 7, 2020 – Live updates: Coronavirus hospitalizations skyrocket across Sun Belt as Fauci warns nation is ‘still knee deep in the first wave’
Mass murder in democrat cities, Chicago, New York & Philadelphia up over 100+ percent. What is bidens plan to curb the black mass murderers in democrat cities? Does biden know how many blm people have been summarily murdered? blm lives do not matter to blacks. Those who are not murdered by abortion live to be murdered by mass murder in democrat run cities and states.
@July 4th American: Did you notice that when they talk about ICUs being occupied at 89% they never tell us how many of those beds are occupied by Corona virus! A viable hospital routinely operates at 85 to 90% for them to be financially sound. That is how they are designed to support the community.
@Randy: All the COVID data is skewed. We can’t know anything about any trends or histories. The data is ruined by input to make it seem far worse than what it is.
@Greg: Fauchi has been wrong or lied his ass off this entire time, next time quote a real scientist not a big pharma bot.
Mar 9, 2020 – Fauci then said, “If you are a healthy young person, there is no reason if you want to go on a cruise ship, go on a cruise ship.
I guess he didnt know there were bars and restaurants on the ships.
He actually was playing games about mask recommendations not trusting the American peoples able to make our own face coverings, he is as guilty of murder as the NY governor who lied about CDC recommendations.
Here is is wearing a home made mask
Idiots shut down JoAnn fabricsand hobby lobby who were teaching customers how easy and cheap it was to make masks, hosting mask making classes where the masks were then donated to hospitals, non essential businesses?
Their data garbage in garbage out.
@kitt: To the extent young, healthy Americans went on cruises (or out to do other things without masks) then came over to visit sick or even chronically slightly ill or elderly relatives because of Fauci’s blithe recommendations he is guilty of many excess deaths.
Diabetes is an invisible illness in that many people with it live very normal lives.
So are many other disorders that medication controls well.
But those people are at risk of death from coronavirus even if younger.
The graph (from a different post at FA) shows how few under 45 die from getting it, but Fauci encouraged weeks of unmasked socializing then had the nerve to make the bump in cases OUR fault!
@Nan G: They widen the memory hole daily.
From Web MD The coronavirus is not ‘airborne
From NY times The W.H.O. has resisted mounting evidence that viral particles floating indoors are infectious, some scientists say. The agency maintains the research is still inconclusive.( I guess they cant figure that out since January useless bastids.) They have forgot how to preform scientific experiments, must be waiting for a consensus. In the meantime just make shit up making it as fearful as possible.
Where is the actual study in done in a lab that clearly shows masks are effective?
@Greg: This article is from the Washington Post and easily dismissed. It’s not a reliable news source, and will not be recognized as one.
@Nathan Blue: Great news according to the definition of Pandemic and epidemic the death count is too low to qualify, Trump did it he beat the Kung flu.
The difference between an outbreak and an epidemic is the percenatge of overall deaths caused by the disease. Every week, the CDC gathers morbidity data from hospitals in 122 cities nationwide and figures out what percentage of the decedents died of pneumonia, cancer, and other prolific killers. If the number of flu-caused deaths exceeds 7.7 percent of the total, then the United States officially has an epidemic on its hands.
@kitt, #12:
Dr. Fauci has always been truthful, and his warnings have been increasingly accurate. Thousands of Americans are going to die because so many of our leaders chose to ignore him, and encouraged the public to do so as well. The consequences will be undeniable in a matter of weeks. They’ll be held accountable at the nation’s ballot boxes.
@Greg: I linked to his lying. Now Our governor thinks he is going to lock us down again 0 deaths in the last 4 days less than 7% positive in a 7 day average no hospital bed shortage. Even the 4th of July did not fill the diners and bars.(they say 50% down in traffic) How can he possibly justify closing this state down again, we shall see, maybe in court again.
Fauchi is beady eyed a lying fraud.