Cliff Mass @ Cliff Mass Weather Blog:
This week, with great fanfare, NASA scientist James Hansen and associates released a paper “The Perception of Climate Change” in the journal PNAS that claims that recent heat waves and droughts were caused by human-induced climate change. To quote their abstract:
” It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small.”
This paper (found here) has been quoted in hundreds, if not thousands, of media outlets and newspapers and has garnered the praise of many environmental advocacy groups.
The problem?  Their conclusions are demonstrably false and their characterization of the science and statistics are deceptive at best.
And the problem goes beyond this unfortunate paper. It extends to the way the media has misunderstood and miscommunicated our current state of knowledge of climate change. No wonder the public is confused, skeptic/denier groups hold on to wacky/unscientific theories, and our leaders dither on climate change. And let me repeat something I have said several times….I believe that human-induced global warming is both observed, real, and a serious problem for mankind. So if anyone wants to call me a denier or some other ad hominem name, please refrain from such remarks.
Well, lets start with a little test.
The heat waves/droughts in the mid-section of the U.S. during past two years were caused by:
a. 90% natural variability and 10% human-induced global warming
b. 50% natural variability and 50% human-induced global warming
c. 10% natural variability and 90% human-induced global warmingTime is up! Write down your answer. As I will try to demonstrate, the correct answer is probably very close to (a).  90% of the temperature anomaly this and last summer is the result of natural variability with a minor assist from global warming.
Really different than the impression you are getting from Dr. Hansen and the media, right? But it is the truth.
Let me prove to you now that Dr. Hansen’s claims are deceptive. Consider the heat wave in Texas/Oklahoma last year. Below you will find the mean temperatures for July and August over the U.S. (top panels), while below are the differences (anomalies) from normal (or climatology). The anomalies were over 8F in July and over 7F in August.
The subject is global warming, but you notice no one mentioned that it snowed in South Africa last week. Statistics showing Global warming should be representative of all of the globe, not just selected areas. James Hanson is paid millions of dollars to champion global warming.
Usually, here in LB, we have over 40 days above 80′ F during the summer.
It is August 9th already and we are only having our 8th day!
The cool-down is set to begin this weekend, too.
Is THAT also ”global warming?”
I know it is usually all considered GW.
So, just thought I’d ask.
The test above is bogus. It assumes AGW in all three choices. Yet AGW theory has never been proven. If it hasn’t been proven how can you possibly claim how much of an effect it has had. You might as well ask:
We know that flatulence exits the body as warmed air. We also know that herbivores emit more flatulence than carnivores. How much of has the air temperature gone up as a result of vegetarian gas and belching?
(A) 70%
(B) 40%
(C) 10%
@Ditto: This is like the “when did you stop beating your wife” question! It assumes facts not in evidence.
@Randy:
Exactly. Bogus.
July 2012: The hottest month on record.
“In more than 117 years of records, July 2012 stands alone as not only the hottest July on record in the lower 48 United States, but also the hottest of any month on record in that time span. To put it another way, July 2012 was the hottest of more than 1,400 months that we’ve gone through since 1895.”
@Greg: And I suppose you are using James Hanson’s bogus data! He just happened to skip quite a few years. Wonder why? And I suppose that the snows in South Africa were caculated in the hottest July?