He can afford to lose 23 Republicans, I believe. Number of Republicans leaning or confirmed no as of 2 p.m.: 22.
As much as the left hates having to make token concessions on spending, a GOP meltdown on the House floor tonight would be be a mighty fine consolation prize.
House Speaker John Boehner continued to lobby fellow Republicans to back his debt bill Thursday, telling members at a closed-door meeting, “We don’t have the votes yet,” according to a Republican in the room. But he added, “Today is the day we’re going to get it passed.”
As part of that lobbying effort, House GOP leaders agreed to add a last minute sweetener for conservatives who have been pushing for a balanced budget amendment to ensure future spending cuts actually happen.
House Republicans plan to have a pair of votes Friday on two versions of a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution. One version, if adopted by the states, would require that the government maintain a balanced budget. The other version, one that conservatives have long been pushing, would also require a supermajority vote in both chambers to approve any tax increases.
The supermajority requirement on tax hikes cinched it for Mike Pence, who’s now a yes. Nearly 30 of the GOP’s 87 freshmen also announced today that they’re backing Boehner, so momentum is with the leadership. Just one question: Er, what happens if Reid makes good on his threat to kill Boehner’s bill in its crib tonight?
“We’re going to put all this at the doorstep of Harry Reid,” Rep. John Fleming (R-FL) told reporters Thursday. I asked whether Boehner had prepared caucus members for the possibility that they’ll have to grapple with yet another compromise — this one between Boehner’s bill and a similar plan Reid wrote himself.
“No, no discussion about that at all,” Fleming said.
Rep. Allen West (R-FL) — a conservative supporter of Boehner plan — says Republicans are looking no farther than Thursday’s vote. “The bottom line is this: What happens after this really depends on Harry Reid, and hopefully they get beyond the do-nothing aspect that they have shown in my time since I’ve been up here, and they move on this.”
So Boehner’s strategy, I take it, is to win this vote by the skin of his teeth, then be forced into some sort of compromise with Reid after the bill dies in the Senate, and then sell the new, even more watered-down bill to House conservatives who are already groaning about having to line up behind Boehner? Unless there’s a market panic tomorrow, how does he win that vote? And Reid’s strategy, as I understand it, is to convince Boehner not to waste precious time by moving ahead with this vote since the bill’s doomed anyway — even though that sort of public ultimatum is guaranteed to force Boehner’s hand and nudge House Republicans into rallying behind him, with the GOP then sure to blame Reid’s rejectionism as the true stumbling block to an economy-saving deal. Huh.
Update: National Journal still counts just 22 GOP no’s. And even better for Boehner, because of Democratic absences, he only needs to get to 216 for a majority, which means he can lose 24 Republicans and still win.
