J.D. Durkin:
Let’s all consider taking one small step backwards and examining history as a determining factor over the ramble of endless cable news shouting matches.
Everyone today loves to look at, and obsess over, the Republican nomination polls as an indicator of the dire trouble that former Florida Governor and dynastic kin Jeb Bush is in. “Skittish” is the editorial word of choice used here to describe Bush supporters, who see his fifth place ranking as a sign of worry.
Real Clear Politics polling data as of today suggests that Bush falls behind Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, and Marco Rubio.
Stop it. None of these people will be President. Rubio, maybe, but still a stretch. Let’s look at the last two Presidential elections to see how the Bush of today is stacking up.
A Gallup Poll released October 23, 2007 gives the following description of the Republican nomination process (I’m willing to bet you don’t remember half of the names mentioned):
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has held a statistically significant lead in every Gallup national preference poll since February, averaging a 12-point lead over former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson the past three months. Arizona Sen. John McCain is third, but usually just a few points behind Thompson. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has not gained much traction in the national polls. In the most recent Gallup Poll, just 10% of Republicans chose him for the Republican presidential nomination. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee has seen his support pick up a little in the past few months, but he remains in single digits. Kansas Sen.Sam Brownback’s departure from the race — announced this past weekend — will almost certainly have little direct effect, as he consistently polled at only 1% or 2% of the vote.
Did you catch the part about Arizona Senator John McCain in there? You know, the guy who became the nominee in 2008? He was in third place behind Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson. In fact, Rasmussen and NBC News polls from September-October that year firmly placed McCain anywhere from a distant second to fourth; President Giuliani seemed like a done deal.
On to 2012, shall we? Let me remind you of the line from NBC News’ Mark Murray on October 13, 2011 when he wrote, “Fueled by Tea Party supporters, conservatives and high-interest GOP primary voters, former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain now leads the race for the Republican presidential nomination, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.”
That happened.
And even in polls when eventual nominee Mitt Romney was in first, he was deemed as the dominant candidate likely to unseat President Barack Obama.
My point is simply to keep in mind that as much fun as it is for us in this business to speculate (and man do we love to, it’s like fantasy football with zero control) October the year before an election is statistically meaningless.
This is the ultimate marathon, and Jeb Bush is built to win it with stability all around him. Sure, Rubio’s fundraising efforts have yielded positive results, but no one is built like the ultra-establishment Bush name.