The following two comments were made on my recent thread about Romney’s campaign working the RNC summer confab in Florida this week. They bring up a point that I think deserves front page attention.
The first is from “wateredseeds”, a long-time Huckabee supporter:
Super smart. Romney has the edge…and is going to win out of iowa no matter what. The question comes down to momentum…and holding the line. Romney is playing it SMART rather than SAFE as many people assume. He had nothing to win at the straw poll…he’s a top 3 finisher in iowa no matter what. He wins new hampshire almost no matter what. And he has nevada pretty much in the bag as well. Romney is running for the general election…and if he tap dances a miracle victory off in iowa…it’s over. People don’t understand…romney doesn’t HAVE to win iowa…but he very well may do it. I’ll bet romney lays low and makes a small push in iowa until right before the caucus. He can win it….and if he does it’s over.
The second is from “Still Hurting”, a Romney supporter:
Wateredseeds,
To add to your commentary, the rest of the early calendar also favors Romney, almost as if he could have drawn it up himself. (Conspiracy nuts, knock yourself out with that one.)
The RNC voted today to not levy harsh penalties against AZ, MI, and FL if they jump the gun on the first Tuesday in March. They have tabled the discussion until their January meeting, meaning that everything will be irrevocably calendared by then.
FL is solid Romney territory (not unchangeble, though). He’s a favorite son in MI. And Romney did very well in AZ in ’08.
It looks like he will have lots of opportunity to build momentum in teh 1st quarter of 2012.
There is little doubt that the odds right now are in Mitt’s favor. Things are shaping up well for him. Will anyone be able to beat the odds and take the nomination from him? They might. Will they? Not likely.
I am reminded of that old saying, “The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that is the way to bet.”
Now don’t get me wrong. Mitt should not be writing his nomination acceptance speech just yet. By the same token none of his opponents should be slitting their wrists, either. There is still time for someone other than Mitt to catch fire. Time is growing short, however.
If things remained the same, Mitt’s path to the nomination is clear. Everyone else’s path, however, depends upon Mitt imploding. In other words, Mitt controls his own destiny. Nobody else can say that.