Ace:
Warning- wide margins.
At top, the forecast from December as published over at The Federalist. At bottom, the picture as things stand today.
The news out of Colorado just piled onto the Democrats’ existing problems. Everyone expected that the Republicans would target the seats in the seven states that voted for Romney: Montana, South Dakota, Arkansas, West Virginia, North Carolina, Louisiana and Alaska. They are, and they outright lead in 6 out of the 7 (Alaska, the sole exception, is likely the artifact of sparse polling). Democrats’ chances of retaining the chamber remained over 50/50 when the map was limited to just that- Republicans would need to sweep 6 out of 7 targets, and their recent track record of actual wins versus contested races didn’t inspire much confidence in that.
But now, not only is the GOP favored in the initial round of states, they are (at least for now) in the driver’s seat in Michigan, making a big, serious play for Colorado, and depending on how they sort things out, are at least semi-serious about New Hampshire and Iowa. The larger the map grows, the tougher it is for the Democrats to keep the Senate.
There comes a point, really, where triage will begin if this map holds or even worsens. It would begin in the states even the Democrats admit are becoming tough holds: West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota. They will try to protect as many incumbents as possible, but if any start approaching Blanche Lincoln territory, it is doubtful the Democrats will pour good money in after bad.
When Rep Cory Gardner announced for US Senate here in CO, suddenly prospects of taking the seat is much brighter. Udall is having his share of Obamacare problems, which includes trying to influence the insurance commissioner to backtrack on the number of insurance cancellations. Most attempts to influence officials promptly lands you in jail. Now, if we can get a quality gubernatorial candidate, we’d be set.
@David: “Now, if we can get a quality gubernatorial candidate, we’d be set.”
That’s the real problem, isn’t it?
Will the primaries give us fresh new conservatives?
Or more establishment RINOs.
Is it too early to prepare my evacuation plans for, I don’t know, 10 November, 2016?
@Petercat:
The problem here in Colorado is that the Republicans, and conservatives, in general, are in a constant state of dysfunction and not who’s RINO or not. They rip each other apart during the primary/caucus season then expect to win the general. All a Dem has to do is repeat the GOP primary/caucus ads.