Nick (aka Bytor) @ Third Base Politics:
One of the keys to Barack Obama’s victory in Ohio in 2008 was the early voting game. Ohio Democrats tapped into the enthusiasm advantage they had and got their voters to vote early in overwhelming numbers. On election day itself, John McCain actually won. But Obama had such a large lead with votes already banked, that he won Ohio and put the nail in McCain’s coffin.
We have analyzed some polls this year that used ridiculous samples with Democrats outnumbering Republicans by 8 points or more. For example, a recent NBC/WSJ/Marist used a Dem +10 sample, and the latest Ohio poll used a preposterous sample with 48% Democrats.
We have argued that these polls are not accurate because in 2008, which was the height of the blue Obama wave, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 8 points on election day. One of our trolls countered that since every single voter got an absentee ballot application in the mail this year, that Democrat turnout would further increase.
Some early numbers are in on absentee ballot requests, so how is that working our for the Democrats so far? Not so good.In 2008, total early votes cast in Ohio totaled 1,023,330. 34% of those were Democrats, 20% were Republicans, and the rest were independents or other parties. Democrats had a 14-point advantage.
So far this year, there have been 528,197 applications sent in for absentee ballots. The party break down at this point is 29% Democrats and 23% Repulicans. The difference is down to 6 points. For the Ohio Democratic Party who was counting on matching their early voting performance from 4 years ago, that’s very bad news.
Let’s look at the three largest counties.
Red State has a more easily understandable executive summary: the process is ongoing, and what’s being tracked are absentee/early ballot REQUESTS, not turned-in ballots.
The voter enthusiasm in Ohio, as expressed by which party’s members are asking for ballots is clearer.
@Nan G: One of the commentors on the link you posted pointed out that Obama carried Ohio in 2008 with roughly the same number of votes Kerry had in 2004 meaning had the Republican turn out been what it was in 2004, McCain would have won Ohio. This is the major point the pollsters are missing. In addition to oversampling Dems, they are probably underestimating what the Republican turn out is going to be. In 2008, over 17 million Evangelicals sat out the election. If they and other conservatives turn out in large numbers, there will be a huge shift in the electorate from 2008. This election will boil down to turn out which is why they are skewing the polls so much and are going so negative against Romney while not bringing up negatives on Obama- to discourage people from turning out to vote against Obama. We’ll see see how successful they are on election day.
another vet
and the MILITARY FROM WAR ZONE votes are not there at this time,
AM I RIGHT?
I’m counting on them to close the MITT ROMNEY AND PAUL RYAN DEAL.
@ilovebeeswarzone:
Bees, the votes from the war zones may not be in yet (if ever), but nearly every vet that I know is voting RR. In fact, every career vet (retired) is going Republican, no matter what their skin color. Remember, our soldiers are taught to think and solve problems for themselves. Which is what I see happening in this election.
Petercat
thank you for affirming what I believe, and they will come in like lions on the sand
at the end of the circus from the MEDIAS, exposing their lies and incite of the crowds to believe
those lies,
yes that’s what I’m confident on the bravest to make the right thing happen.
we’ll have a party for them and be grateful for what they are doing, some have died today yesterday and 2000 time one,while the nuts are voting for OBAMA,
bye
@ilovebeeswarzone: I don’t know the answer to that one but rest assured, they will go heavily against Obama as will most of the Vets and people still in the military. Most everyone I served with has a different view from the current occupant of the WH as far as what America is supposed to be.
another vet
yes and that make me happy for AMERICA’S CHANCE TO SURVIVE AND GET BACK AS SHE IS SUPPOSE TO BE, UNIFIED FOR AMERICA ONE VOICE, TO DEFEAT THE ENEMIES WITHIN AND FOREIGN WHO ARE SO ENVIOUS OF HER REAL MENTALITY, THEY WANT TO BREAK HER IN PIECES, AND REPLACE THE ROOTS WITH MORE HATERS, TO INVADE AND DESTROY.
BYE
Petercat
another vet
I SAW ONE GUESS AT FOX SAYING HOW LATE SOME ARE TO WAIT FOR THEIR PAPER TO VOTE
IN AFGHANISTAN, HE ASK THE PENTAGON , THEY SAID THEY WHERE BUSY,
AND THEY SAID THEY DID NOT RECEIVE THE MONEY FROM THE WHITE HOUSE,
THE GUESS WAS VERY ANGRY SAYING THAT IS POOR EXCUSE, AND THAT WILL MESSED UP THE MILITARY VOTES,
CAN YOU BELIEVE THAT IS INCREDIBLE, I THINK THE PENTAGON IS FULL OF DEMOCRATS,
MESSING UP THE MILITARY VOTES