A Spate of Retirements

Richard Fernandez:

Janet Hook and Thomas Crittenden of the Wall Street Journal try to explain the rash of retirements on Capitol Hill.

A parade of retirements from Congress threatens to deplete Capitol Hill’s ranks of centrists, graybeards and legislative craftsmen—increasingly rare commodities in a political hothouse more prone to line-drawing than bridge-building in recent years.  Many of the House members who are leaving are centrist Republicans, which could leave the GOP caucus more dominated than ever by the party’s conservative wing. Democrats, meanwhile, are losing some of the last of their party’s conservative “Blue Dog” wing.

Yet the retirements are in some way an historical throwback. Until recently it was unusual for legislators to serve out multiple terms. Until the 20th century it was uncommon for legislators to be repeatedly re-elected. “The fact that ‘perpetuity in office’ was not approached until the 20th century is due in part to the influence of rotation in office as a popular 19th century concept … rotation of nominations was intertwined with the spoils system”.

While nobody is under the illusion that the permanent political class in Washington is disintegrating it is reasonable to ask whether its monolithic facade is cracking — if only every so slightly. The AP describes the retirment of one Congressman who has served 11 terms.

WASHINGTON — Joining an exodus from Congress by both Democrats and Republicans, veteran Rep. Howard “Buck” McKeon tearfully announced Thursday that he’s retiring after 21 years, stepping down as House Armed Services Committee chairman.

But now, perhaps by coincidence, a larger than usual number are heading for home. Nancy Pelosi denied there was anything unusual about the retirements saying “our Democratic retirements do not relate in any way to our prospects for winning”.

 

That’s as may be. But if the portents are to believed  2014 promises to bitterly fought election with a distinctly pronounced ideological streak running down its middle. Anecdotal evidence suggests that is exactly the kind of fight the administration is preparing for. According to Manu Raju and Carrie Brown of Politico, “Barack Obama has a plan to save the Senate’s tenuous Democratic majority: Sell a populist message, try to make Obamacare work better and raise lots of cash.” Translation: unlimited class warfare and machine politics.

The electoral map this year favors the GOP, which has to win a net of six seats to take back the majority, including in red states like Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota, Louisiana, Arkansas and North Carolina.

Democrats hope messy GOP primaries in North Carolina and Georgia and McConnell’s own difficult reelection will imperil the Republican drive to the majority. But the president’s sagging popularity will burden Senate Democrats, particularly in red states, something the White House and top Democrats will have to grapple with as they try to use the bully pulpit against the GOP. Republicans, meanwhile, are making clear their November strategy will be all about the president.

In this process Obama sees his task as raising money for the party and limiting the damage he anticipates will come from Obamacare. “Obama has called back Phil Schiliro, a former legislative director, to focus solely on smoothing the Affordable Care Act implementation. And Katie Beirne Fallon, a former senior aide to Schumer and confidante to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) who started last week as the legislative director, is part of the White House’s so-called early warning system to identify Obamacare problems before they become full-blown political crises.”

But the trouble flagship health plan is likely to create problems far in excess of anyone’s ability to spin. Obamacare has begun a three stage descent into disaster. The first phase was the catastrophic rollout of the website. This has cascaded into a situation where perhaps millions of Americans find themselves in the second phase of “limbo”, unsure they are covered, unable to pay, incapable of verifying their enrollment.

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