5 reasons Republicans really, really want Marco Rubio to run for reelection

Amber Phillips:

https://twitter.com/rickklein/status/737625851009851393

That was none other than the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, urging his colleague Sen. Marco Rubio in an interview with MSBNC’s “Morning Joe” to change his mind and run for reelection in Florida.

Don’t count on it, Rubio has said. He recently said it’s “unlikely” he’ll change his mind to step down.It’s easy to see why: His friend is currently in the race, he’d have to build a campaign up from scratch for an election six months away, and his stock was arguably lowered during the presidential race.

But that won’t stop powerful Republicans like McConnell from trying to convince Rubio otherwise before the June 24 filing deadline. As compelling as Rubio’s reasons for not running are, Republicans say they have even more compelling reasons to persuade him to stay: Rubio’s candidacy is their best chance to keep the seat Republican. And if Rubio’s seat stays Republican, there’s a better chance the Senate can stay Republican, too. And a Republican Senate could help protect the Supreme Court from tilting from conservative to liberal. And on it goes.

In other words, Senate Republicans believe there’s more than just Rubio’s reputation and friendships on the line. Here are five reasons they really, really want him to change his mind and run for reelection:

1. Florida’s Republican field is so-so: Of the five or so major candidates running to be Rubio’s successor on the Republican side, not one has managed to distinguish himself. There are two members of Congress, a lieutenant governor, a former CIA officer and a wealthy home builder all with a shot. Rubio’s entrance into the race would certainly clear a lot of that field, if not all of it. But most importantly, it would probably bring in some much-needed cash by giving wary donors who had been holding their checks until the race shaped up a clear reason to start giving.

“In a state where it’s likely to cost $5 million a week down the stretch, none of the current candidates have been able to raise that kind of money,” said Josh Holmes, the former chief of staff to McConnell.

BUT: A very important caveat here. The lieutenant governor in the race, Carlos López-Cantera, happens to be one of Rubio’s good friends. They’ve been working together since the ’96 Bob Dole campaign, Rubio told CNN’s Jake Tapper in a recent interview.”I think he’s put in time and energy to it and he deserves the chance to see where he can take it,” Rubio said.

(Republican optimists will point out that in the next sentence in that interview, Rubio kinda sorta left the door open for a run, circumstances notwithstanding):

TAPPER: If you didn’t have a friend running, might you reconsider?

RUBIO: Maybe.

2. Rubio could win: There are some polls circulating in Washington GOP circles that suggest that not only would Rubio dominate the Republican primary, he’d dominate the general election, including the likeliest Democratic candidates, Reps. Patrick Murphy and/or Alan Grayson. We at The Post haven’t substantiated those polls, but I mention them to give you a sense of the kind of information Republicans are receiving — and using — to pressure Rubio into running. They think he can win and in the process Florida off the competitive Senate map. Which brings me to my next point.

3. Florida’s Senate race is a headache Republicans would rather not have: Senate Republicans know they’ve got their work cut out for them defending 24 of the 34 seats up for reelection this cycle. Seven of those seats are in states that voted for President Obama twice. They think they’ve put in the work to keep the majority, even in the year of Donald Trump.

But the one hangup is Florida, which is currently third on our list of top 10 Senate races most likely to flip parties this election — behind only some very vulnerable Republican incumbents in Illinois and Wisconsin.

Republicans think Florida would become much less competitive if Rubio were in it. Without Rubio, Florida is a pure toss-up. Whether they’re right, it’s true that every little boost you can get in Florida helps: It tends to be more Democratic in a presidential year, but it’s still a swing state where the past two governors’ races and the 2012 presidential race were all decided by one point, said Florida political analyst Susan MacManus.

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