Abstract: The title question has been baffling political pundits for months now with good reason, Trump has been a fountain of gaffes, lies, missteps and frauds that would have long sunk any kind of normal campaign and yet his polling has actual risen from theses occurrences. Thus there needs to be a close examination of these events and their causal relationships. The phenomena can be explained as a combination 3 factors of modern political realty: Chaos operations by democrats, bandwagon (with bleed over) effects and society’s Culture of celebrity.
Dissertation: The Trump Phenomena has been one of baffling contradictions and manifestations. Each gaffe, lie, fraud allegation and incident of violence was met with predictions that said events would be the end of the Trump candidacy. And yet each gaffe, lie, fraud allegation and incident of violence only served to energize the phenomena. The result of the news cycle would be seemingly even more acolytes clamoring to support the Trump cult of personality.
Such is the complete opposite what has been the case in the recent past. The record is replete with cases of aspirants stumbling with a minor gaffe or allegation and having to drop out of the contest. Not so with the present Trump Phenomena so the question becomes one of attempting to explain the phenomena to fit within the boundaries of the empirical data points that have become manifest above the background noise of the news cycle.
We must make the proviso that the current discussion is about population groups that at times display decidedly non-lineal beliefs and actions such that there will be individual variations that do not fit within the ascribed theoretical behavior model.
In order to properly analyze the Phenomena we must first stipulate that there are several subsets of those who profess to support Donald J. Trump. This critically important in validating our hypothesis in answering the title question on the Trump Phenomena. It is the actions of each supporter subset and their unique reaction to the phenomena that best explain the situation. And while there may be some overlapping of the subsets each is distinct in their rationale for supporting Trump in the primary process.
Subset 1: Left leaning Trump supporters
The first subset of supporters are primarily left leaning and it is this subset that is of the most interest in our study here. This subset is the primary reason gaffes, lies and allegations of fraud are cause for an increase in support.
Simply put, the worse a candidate Trump became, they more they supported him as the best way for the Democratic party to defeat the Republican party in the general election. Each new revelation or gaffe would show them he would be the easier to be vanquished by their party in the general election and thus they would throw their support behind for the time period of the primary process.
Many have tried to ponder the phenomena and determine the cause for these occurrences, but one only has put in place the precepts of Occam’s razor to fit a theory to the empirical events. In many ways this could easily be a case where the explanation was so obvious that it was simply overlooked.
This part of the theory is easily confirmed by examining a few empirical events. One is the many instances where vast numbers of Democrats have switched to vote for the least general election favored candidate1 2. This is sometimes colloquially referred to a Ditch and Switch. The theory is also confirmed by the fact that closed primaries favor candidates other than the subject while open primaries favor Trump3. Taking these factors into account it should be clearly evident how the Trump Phenomena deifies political gravity.
Subset 2: Right leaning Trump supporters.
This second set of Trump supporters are primarily right leaning as opposed to the first group. This mostly consists of those identifying with ideals of Conservatism or Libertarianism . The ideology of this subset would seem to present a problem for the proposed theory given that they should have the opposite reaction to the gaffes, lies and fraud allegations. And in some cases this is the correct assumption, but to a certain extent this effect is drowned out in the statistical noise of the reactions of the other subset. And in many cases we see the bandwagon hold sway over the rest of this subset when they see the support increase instead of decrease.
In many way this becomes a self fulfilling prophecy in that people have come to expect an increase in support and the addition of left leaning Trump supporters has reinforced this expectation in most cases. We can also attribute the lack of precision in measuring these phenomena given most are over a span of a few days and any negative perturbations are easily lost in the statistical noise. In short, people expect support to increase and when it does we see a positive feedback loop that only reinforces the prophecy for the next news cycle. Thus the bandwagon has a secondary effect in this regard in that people support the Trump Phenomena because he can win. As a result this positive feedback loop only accentuates the feedback still further.
In addition there is the celebrity factor of the of the Trump Phenomena. In the lead up to the primary process a fair amount of support can simply be attributed to celebrity recognition and the desire to be part of the limelight. Thus support could be more correctly attributed to name recognition rather than support of the celebrity candidate’s policy positions. And in many cases there was distinct paucity of these positions to forestall negative reactions.
The Trump Phenomena has distinct advantage with those who are what is colloquially termed as Low information and who haven’t put the time in to studying the issues and learning who is the best candidate. The celebrity culture advantage also plays into the band wagon effects such that those who know little of the issues at least know one of the candidates and is reinforced by every uplift in the polls.
Conclusion
Thus we have seen that with two distinct subsets of groups supporting the Trump Phenomena has skewed the traditional political calculus to the polar opposite inverting the process to it’s detriment. Issues that would have doomed candidates and campaigns of the past only serve to advance the phenomena. Mutually reinforcing factors of Democratic chaos operations coupled with bandwagon and celebrity effects caused the inversion of the standard political calculus of the past, resulting in ongoing consternation of certain political parties.
Footnotes:
1. Amid Trump surge, nearly 20,000 Mass. voters quit Democratic party – Boston Herald, February 29, 2016
2. 60,000 Democrats Voted in Virginia Republican Primary – The Gateway Pundit, March 2, 2016
3. Trump doing better in ‘open’ primaries; Cruz sees success in GOP-only contests – Fox News, March 07, 2016
Sorry, but where do those Republicans who’ve been buying the promises of the Party that, ”if we get the House, no, wait, IF we get the Senate, too, No Wait, IF we also get the White House…..,” but who are now totally disillusioned by the GOPe?
They are going to Trump.
Are they Left-leaners?
No.
Are they Low-Info’s?
No.
Are they Celebrity groupies?
No.
But there are a whole lot of them.
And, when Trump’s main opponent is having real issues with the way he’s dealt with other people’s money, there’s yet another reason to chose Trump.
So, instead of getting it over with via the FEC’s the compliance division, Cruz is going to drag it out via the FEC’s Enforcement Division.
This keeps a cloud over his head for the rest of this year!
WHY????
Here’s the paperwork:
Really? A fountain?
This right here is the PROBLEM that Americans are tired of, sick of…MEDIA (liberal Media).. and ‘others’ making Broad Sweeping Statements
Just. Like. The. One. Quoted. Above.
Without “specifics” just throw it out and see what sticks…just like Mr Anon Scientist did with this article…
Then Mr Scientist goes on and on “trying to figure out” just why people are drawn to Mr. Trump…
Mr Trump is telling it like it is…he is not beholden to “Donators” to PC, to Public Relations Corps (hired to ‘tell’ him what to say and what not to say) and adhere to which way the political winds are blowing on a particular day…
We are also Tired of Republicans stumping themselves at Town Halls and the like, “Promising” to do this or that “just to get into the office” then abandoning the issues and the very people who put them in Office!!
And, the White working Class People who prop this country up is Tired of Being Ignored, treated as if THEY
don’t exist, and treated as their long held American Beliefs don’t matter to the Politicians and Washington DC, that somehow THEY are Wrong for wanting to Make their Country Great Again….
….to have a Job, maybe become very successful, be able to financially take care of their Family, pay their bills, take a well deserved vacation, enjoy their family and their friends…to live life…safely, freely, with our liberties in tact, and with security…in Our America…
Mr. Trump and his success with the American people is not really all that complicated…people keep looking for really bad things with Mr. Trump that just aren’t there…
I also think the supporters see that there are two trumps, the candidate Trump and the President Trump. After all, haven’t politicians mostly been two people, the one running for office and the one holding office.
@FAITH7:
And yet, time after time, low information voters, like yourself, continue to vote back into office the very people you claim sold you out while you ignore that Donald Trump donated $60,000.00 to Mitch McConnell to help McConnell defeat true conservative, Matt Bevin. The very players you disparage includes Donald Trump.
No, the attraction Donald Trump holds is not really all that complicated. We saw the very same thing in 2008 when millions of Democrats were mesmerized by a little known, do nothing, promise everything candidate named Barack Hussein Obama, Jr. Trump, as Obama before him, plays on people’s anger. He spouts 30 second sound bites with no real solutions. Build a wall that Mexico will pay for? How does that work? Will Trump usurp the Congress’s fiduciary authority (aka, Obama) or impose illegal tariffs? Why doesn’t Trump put his money where his mouth is and make his signature ties and shirts in a plant in the U.S? Or do you excuse his off-shoring for personal gain that costs Americans jobs?
People like you, Johnny-Come-Latelys, blather on about the GOPe, not realizing that the GOP you rail on is hundreds of thousands, no millions, of grassroots conservatives who have been ringing the bell for decades while you seek the shiny object.
Understand this; millions of hard working and dedicated conservatives will not vote for a nasty, foulmouthed, narcissist named Donald Trump. His unfavorable ratings show that, and he will lose to Hillary, or in the event there is still justice in this land and she is indicted, Trump will lose to Sanders.
Ask yourself this question: in a time where we watch the morals of our society sink to unfathomable lows, what kind of man encourages his girl friend, now his wife, to pose nude for a magazine shoot even allowing the use of his own private plane for that photo shoot? Is that what you want, a Godless man in the Oval Office? Have you not had enough of that after 8 years of Obama?
And all those Democrats crossing the aisle to vote for Trump? I suggest you research Operation Chaos.
@FAITH7: The Donald–only his 3 wives call him Mr.Trump has really snowed you Faith–should be blind Faith.
Randy You as well Randy–Two Trumps?-Good luck with that prayer Col.–for such a practical man you gotta really have faith to believe that one.
Another pseudo-intellectual hit piece attempting to explain something based on a flawed initial assumption:
“even more acolytes clamoring to support the Trump cult of personality.”
When you begin an analysis from a flawed premise, you will get a flawed analysis. Garbage in, garbage out.
“given that they should have the opposite reaction to the gaffes, lies and fraud allegations.”
Because the people who are making those claims have told so many lies and distortions about Mr. Trump that they have lost all credibility. Mr. Trump’s supporters are not listening.
Mr. Trump is human, and prone to errors and mistakes. That just makes him more real, more like us. Basically a good man.
I had to laugh at his conclusion: There are only two types of people supporting Mr. Trump: The evil, and the stupid.
Go ahead and insult us, call us names. We don’t care. All you’re doing is stroking your own ego, mentally masturbating if you will.
It won’t change a thing.
@Richard Wheeler: I am living in the reality of the lies and Pi** poor ‘leadership’ of the last 8 years…along with millions of other Americans…”we” decided we don’t like it much…nor do “we” like Lying do nothing politicians…
…the people who should be mocked (or pitied) are the people who voted for Barry the lying American hating communist – twice….
…AND those who support I once lived in a shack Commie Bernie and….
…Hilliary because?…lady parts?…seriously? is all the substance I can think of for her…her accomplishments include creative swindling and getting good decent people murdered…easy stuff to ‘over look’ I suppose….
Say what you will Mr Wheeler…say what you want…
@Richard Wheeler: If you had the capability to understand what you read Rich, you would understand that I was commenting on the post, not what I personally believe. I know it is a reach for you to comprehend, but you should try some time it is liberating!
It is really not difficult to fathom. Firstly, let’s acknowledge that every prediction about Trump has been wrong. (Yet these same people are still making predictions with no hint of irony – go figute.) Trump’s success comes from two groups: those who like what he says, and those who don’t care what he says but like the way he says it. It all comes down to the fact that he is – up until now – running a self-funded campaign. He doesn’t have to face a meet-n-greet with big donors who will demand that he dance to their tune or their money will go elsewhere. And isn’t that what we all say we want? To get the corrupting money out of politics? Well here he is. If he loses I never want to hear another Trump Hater complain about the corrupting of politics by Big Money.
PS, this all may change if the GOP goons are not successful in kneecapping Trump’s campaign and he wins the nomination. He will not be able to self-fund a general election against the Clinton Machine. Oops – there I go with another prediction.
Randy—If you are not a Trump supporter you have my apologies. If you are a supporter –my condolences.
When Mr. Williamson pens an article for The National Review, Mr. Trump becomes more likeable.
Mr. Wheeler who is Mr. Webb endorsing?
I have posted negative items about this candidate. He isn’t my choice. I personally, IMO, think he is a shape shifter, he has changed his mind on yuge issues. My Governor was running for president the leader in the polls, Trump was my second choice at that time, then Trump went on the attack, I thought Mary Burke wrote his talking points for him, it was every lie from the left, and believe me, we heard them all, over and over damn our lying eyes. Walker defeated the recall and was re-elected. That left such foul impression of Trump I swore I would only vote for him if he made it to the general election. Dirty politics we have seen it here in Wisconsin the John Doe investigations still not settled.
To me if it walks like a Democrat..bankrupt with OPM never his own, and it talks like a democrat ,example above, its a Democrat. Others Back him, vote for him, cheer for him. that is your right, I’d agree with you but then we would both be wrong.
How he defies gravity, its like the question from a 5 year old where the answer too complex for them to grasp the answer, as a mom, just because, ok, now would you like a cookie?
His followers not dumb, not evil, not all low information, every single candidate has clueless followers. They are just Americans struggling through life as everyone does, ok want a cookie?
(last comment to the author of another WTF Trump article)
@Petercat:
No, there are two types of people who are supporting Trump (well, three types actually): the angry; the Dems who are holding their own Operation Chaos and the low information voter. Which one are you?
Go ahead and insult us, call us names. We don’t care. All you’re doing is stroking your own ego, mentally masturbating if you will.
You want name calling? Take a look at Amanda Carpenter’s Twitter page. Trump supporters call her names that are not allowed on this blog. That’s your classic example of the kind of people who support Trump.
I am a Christian core Constitutionalist conservative and if I am chosen to go to Cleveland, I will support Kacich before I ever cast a vote for Trump.
@FAITH7:
Nothing has really changed since 2008. You had 8 years to get out the vote for a true conservative that would stand up against the “pi**poor” leadership. What did you do? Block walk? Make hundreds of phone calls supporting a conservative candidate? Donate time, energy and money to getting those conservative candidates elected? Now you support a guy who gave Mitch McConnell $60,000.00 to defeat conservative Matt Bevin and you’re whining about the “pi**poor” leadership?
One thing you Trumpeteers do well; deal in hypocrisy.
40% of a party that is 30% of the USA votes for the Trump the GOP Congress has approval rating in the teens, Obama’s approval ratings are 3 times as high
The GOP has been hijacked by extremists
Cruz is like a 30-1 shot by foreign bookies
Americans might elect right wing extremists if there are gerrymandered electoral districts or in midterm elections but 2016 is going to be an ugly year for the GOP
Try to face the reality
Mr. Wheeler have a Happy Easter. On this special day I do not want to be snarky.Please accept my apology on whom Mr. Webb has endorsed for President.
An interesting proposition to put someone in there who can unite rather than further divide the country like Obama has.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/03/26/this-man-can-save-us-from-trump-and-clinton.html
Trump is fully exploiting a political environment created by various media and propaganda outlets that was actually intended for someone else’s use. He hijacked the little bulldozer they built, and now he’s running over everything in sight. They unintentionally provided him with a powerful piece of equipment.
@another vet #17 –
GEN Mattis would be an interesting option. If Trump falls short of the delegates he needs to win the nomination, the GOP should consider GEN Mattis as a possibility. He knows how lead, how to make decisions, how to inspire, etc. You’ll know Mattis would be fair in his decision-making. At this point, intangibles matter more than policy. Both Trump and Hillary fall woefully short in all of the intangible categories. The VP slot could be a contentious fight, but if you want someone of a similar bent, you would go with someone like retired Adm William McRaven, former CINC of SOCOM and Navy SEAL. I met McRaven once, mostly a “Hi, how are you sir?” kind of meeting. He asked about a tactical matter at the meeting. No one seemed to know the answer, but I did. I briefed my boss on that the matter the day before.
And with these two, no one on joint staff (and elsewhere) would be able to bullshit them about options.
@David:It’s probably a good time to put a military type in there given the mess the next President will inherit. The two front runners are both dividers and not leaders just like what we have now. Even IF we had a real DOJ and Hillary were to be indicted, we’d end up with Sanders or Biden on the dem side and neither of them are up to the task either.
This whole situation is quite a mess and a shame given how deep the Republican pool was this year.
@retire05:
I did get involved. What I received in return was candidates lying to my face…what a farce…then what do these ‘conservative’ candidates ‘do’ once in office…nada…their Constituents ‘disappear’….but, ‘l’ somehow am a bad guy because I’ve had enough…of these lying asshats..and am as Angry as I was in 2009…
I go down to my states county Republican offices in the midst of an important election and these people cannot be open late even one evenung to accommodate those Constituents who actually work for a living? They ‘arrogantly’ think we are ‘just’ going to continue to voting for these people…
But, I’m a hypocrite because we did a house cleaning in the Senate and Congress and some lying hypocrites instead got elected ….
By the way, Your Guy Matt Bevin wasn’t so ‘pure’, who is really, however, he was 10 times better than that POS McConnell. Trump donated to a lot of people…’they’ solicit him for donations…
By the way Retire05, you sound as ‘angry’ as you say the Trumpeteers are.
@mike191: Webb has not endorsed anyone for POTUS.
Trump stands in the way of “business as usual” for the uniparty, so the “faithful” party before country crowd are against him. Personally, I”m glad I’m not on the same side as BLM, Harry Reid, Turtle McConnel and Mylee Cyrus.
@FAITH7:
Are you trying to pretend those items do not exist?
Seriously?
[Don’t bother with ad hominem attacks and cherry picking a couple of items – You will have to refute every one of them in order to be valid]
Trump’s Yuuge Lies http://natl.re/UKuyI7 via @NRO
Coburn: Trump-circulated quote attacking Cruz ‘absolute fabrication’
http://washex.am/1opmbjr
Donald Trump Is a Scam. Evangelical Voters Should Back Away (CP Editorial)
http://www.christianpost.com/news/donald-trump-scam-evangelical-voters-back-away-cp-editorial-158813/
Donald Trump (NY-R-I-D-R-NP-R) Has Twice Dumped The GOP, But Remains A Republican At Press Time
http://www.thesmokinggun.com/buster/donald-trump/donald-trump-voter-history-567920
@FAITH7:
Who Said It: Donald Trump Or Hillary Clinton? – http://thefederalist.com/2015/08/11/who-said-it-donald-trump-or-hillary-clinton/ via @FDRLST
Donald Trump Lied About His Support Of The Second Amendment
http://bearingarms.com/donald-trump-lied-support-second-amendment/
Donald Trump Is No Revolutionary, He’s Just a Democrat
http://natl.re/LF7orM
Is Donald Trump A ‘Common Sense Conservative,’ Or Just Mostly Liberal?
@FAITH7:
Trump negatives Failed Businesses:
@FAITH7:
Trump Lies
How does a guy get sooo rich with so many failures, me thinks he is an OPM addict. Investors lose their money he uses OTHER PEOPLES MONEY. He can certainly take profits from any successful ventures but wont lose a dime on his failures. I wouldn’t personally invest a penny in anything he is involved in.
@Nanny G:
Did you actually Read that those people were mentioned as part of the second subset?
Of those are they informed about all of Trumps ‘gaffes, lies and allegations of fraud’?
Because that begs the followup question of why in tarnation are they still supporting him?
@Petercat:
What exactly is wrong about that presumption?
Are you aware that you actually have to prove the statements you are making?
They are not worth anything if you cannot substantiate them.
Those allegations have been made many different sources, are you trying to claim every last one of them has lost their credibility?
So is that a case where their minds have been made up so don’t confuse them with the facts?
So which is it?
In one instance you allege that those accusation aren’t true, are you now admitting they are?
And of course, these kinds of comments are not complete without the use of a strawman fallacy. The kind of fallacy being where the original words are distorted to make what was supposedly stated easier to knock down.
Could you be so kind as to point out where the author used those terms?
Actually you did that with your strawman fallacy and of course you finish up your fallacy festival with spurious juvenile terms.
@FAITH7:
What candidates lied to your face? Speak in particulars, not generalities. Have you ever requested to meet with those “candidates” one on one? So you were angry in 2009. So what? Many of us were angry in November, 2008 because we understood the nation had just elected its first Socialist president.
And you did what? Did you run for office in your local Republican Party? Volunteer to be an office (Secretary, Treasurer, Precinct Chair)? Or did you volunteer to open the local office when you were not working? Seems you’re criticizing others for your own failures.
And look at the House of Representatives; time after time they voted the way you would have them do only to be thwarted by Harry Reid, or Mitch McConnell, the very man Trump donated $60,000.00 to. And still, you support the very man who helped reelect McConnell. Therein lies your hypocrisy.
Yes, Trump donated to lots of people. Up until recently most were Democrats. But the chameleon has changed colors, right?
Yes, I’m angry that our nation has taken a Socialist turn. But, unlike you, my anger has been productive, working to make sure that Christian conservatives are elected in my state. Your anger is just irrational, hanging on to the empty promises made by the very man that helped foment the reasons for your anger.
Hey:
@Petercat:
@FAITH7:
@Nanny G:
I’m still eagerly awaiting your remarks to what I’ve posted in reply to your comments.
You spent a great deal of time writing your criticisms and yet you cannot seem to be able to stand up for what you have said.
@Warrot94: Trumpists have gone understandably silent as The Donald continues to stumble and blunder.
Tues Cruz beats him by 7%+ in Wisconsin
Later in April Kasich beats him in Pa
6/7 Trump finishes 3rd in Ca
Cleveland–Trump–approx 1075 Cruz–900 Kasich 450-
Rubio 100+
Kasich gets nom on 4th ballot
Kasich/ Rubio beat HRC in Nov.
@Richard Wheeler: Kasich, a man that eats pizza with a fork? HA, His obama care acceptance Medicaid expansion of 33 % in his first big government answers year. Steal from the Nations elderly and disabled, thats what AHCA does and continues to do as it swirls to a not fast enough flush.
Republicans in the Ohio House and Ohio Senate passed a ban on Medicaid expansion in 2013. Kasich vetoed the ban and expanded Medicaid unilaterally. He is the Adult in the room and we children are not taking that credit card from him even if he means to stick us with the bill.
@kitt: Sounds like you may be writing future Trumpist anti -Kasich talking points. lol
Kasich /Rubio ticket will beat HRC. Trump not a chance–Cruz vs HRC–I think he loses.
I don’t want HRC–I’ll support the sure winner–think he’s a good man with a great overall resume.
@Richard Wheeler: And for a conservative what would that resume contain?
He wants to expand the government and its control.
Trumps a flop in Wisc.
Polls before primary showed him ahead time came close here he WAS ahead, but then imagine inviting someone to your apt after the landlord has done a few needed renovations and he says “Hey what a crapshack you have, the landlord is a dummy and should raise your rent.”
The last land lord kept raising the rent, let the roof leak and told you to buy the buckets.
Back to your fav.
Do you know he sold a prison in his state to a private firm now they have to crap into plastic bags.
After working for Murdoch and prior to being elected, Kasich spent his time hawking junk assets for the now-defunct Lehman Brothers investment bankers. He helped sell these worthless assets to the tune of $500 million into Ohio’s public retirement system, particularly the State Teacher’s pension funds. He made untold millions, which he refused to disclose, while looting the pensions of school teachers and public employees.
These and a few more skeletons he will be raked over the coals by the democrats.