
Unemployment “dropped” according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
For a second month, the American jobs report provided a confusing picture of the state of the labor market. Many economists are blaming the heavy snow in some parts of the country for the diverging statistics.
The government said that the unemployment rate in January dropped to 9 percent from 9.4 percent in December. Economists had expected the unemployment rate to rise to 9.5 percent. The government said that 36,000 jobs were created last month, the fewest in four months.
The slow job growth left some analysts skeptical that the economic recovery was picking up pace.
Confusing ain’t the word for it….pure baloney is better. Suitably Flip tore into the numbers and can’t make them compute…did the BLS fudge the numbers?
On the 504,000 decline – as you may have seen, that’s due to a Census adjustment:
“The adjustment decreased the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional population in December by 347,000, the civilian labor force by 504,000, and employment by 472,000; the new population estimates had a negligible impact on unemployment rates and most other percentage estimates.”
The same adjustment decreased payrolls by 472,000 (i.e. the “disappeared” people had an unemployment rate of just 6.3%, so the remaining population should’ve ticked up). Excluding the Census data, the labor force was unchanged, so I’m still trying to crunch these numbers and get them to agree with the decline in the headline unemployment rate.
The only thing that seems to reconcile the numbers is to (improperly) fail to back out the 472,000, which doesn’t have a “neligible” impact. It lowers the rate from 9.3% to 9.0%. With the seasonal and population adjustments, I’m having a hard time making complete sense of it. If that’s what they did, it was a huge mistake. Seems quite unlikely, but I don’t see how they get 9.0% otherwise.
And notably, the same estimates that were looking for 148,000 new jobs also expected an increase in the unemployment rate to 9.5%. That wild disparity (huge underperformance with a significant improvement in the rate) doesn’t make sense, absent a methodology adjustment that’s not accounted for by the Census tweak.
Ch-ch-change baby! 26 year low!

He also notes that the lame excuse by the MSM for the lack of job growth, namely the weather, is pure bulls**t.
Exit video….Rick Santelli rips most of the CNBC panel today about this jobs report. Most of the guests were gushing about it, Rick was having none of it:
“[W]e have overwhelming evidence the jobs market is disappointing, and all of you are trying to look for that one half of spaghetti in a 50 lb. spaghetti bowl. This is not great data,” Santelli claimed. “We know that the U6 probably gives you a better indication of the true unemployment rate …”
CNBC’s Steve Liesman interjected: “It went down, Rick. It went down – ”
“Yeah, what is it?” asked Santelli.
“It went down Rick, to 16.1 [percent],” Liesman said.
“Oh boy, guys! 16.1 [percent] is probably the unemployment rate. That’s cause celebre,” Rick sarcastically shouted on the trading floor of the Chicago mercantile exchange.
“But it fell from 16.7,” Liesman insisted.
Santelli continued to criticize the spin: “You know what Steve? You and I both know that the unemployment rate, the labor force moving in and out, those giving up, is really probably your best statistical reason for the drop to 9.0 (percent). And in terms of jobs, you, Mr. Steve Liesman, said if you work just one day. If you stay home but you get paid you’re counted in the data …”
“Right – it shouldn’t be weather,” Liesman acknowledged.

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Geoff, over at Ace of Spades Headquarters was the creator of ”the chart.”
Geoff weighs in on why his own creation is now meaningless.
They moved almost ALL of the Establishment survey data for last year DOWN… thus lowering the bar for now.
Cute.
They used 11 year old census data to “adjust” the Household survey based on “Census Data”. Note, not NEW Census data… based on the Census data from 11 years ago.
Now, how many baby boomers are retiring every day?
How many wanted to?
How many simply had no other choice?
@Nan G, #1:
The fact that the leading edge of the baby boomer generation has now reached retirement age probably has a significant bearing on the increased number leaving the work force. That is especially true of 2011. As this chart shows, 1949 was close to the peak baby boomer birthrate. A similar retirement peak would be expected beginning around 62 years later–right about now.
There’s little doubt that many who would have delayed their retirement well beyond age 62 have changed their plans owing to the dismal job market.
99 weeks worth of unemployment is having a huge effect on people staying out of the workforce.
Here’s an illustrious graph:
(BTW, it was from ME, from here, before it was linked here.)
I used to be a nuclear power plant engineer, among other auspicious professions. When I couldn’t find any more engineering jobs, I took a job wiring houses here in NC. After several years doing that, I got laid off when the housing bubble popped. After sending out literally hundreds of resumes with nary a single response, I just gave up and went on social security. So I’m one of the “uncounted”. Yeah, I could go back to work at some stupid, meaningless, job at low wages but to tell the truth, I don’t much care to.
It turns out that I’m quite happy being “poor” and “unemployed”. No debts, no stress, medical insurance through my wife’s job. Life is good.
Mark Twain? Statistics don’t lie, only
governmentstatisticians lie.Not Seasonally Adjusted in graph form:
Table B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail
http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cesbtab1.htm
Just check only the box with Non farm Not Seasonal Adjusted. The picture tells the story, total employment hasn’t been this low since 2003 when we were digging out of a recession. Here’s a sobering observation from the peak employment in November 2007 there were 139,090,000 employed compare this to November 2010 with 131,371,000, that a drop of over 7 million (7.719) jobs in 3 years it would be even worse if we compare that with November 2009. Then consider in 2001 there were 131,880,000 jobs, we literally had less jobs in 2010 than 9 years ago when you compare the month of November stats. We have lost an entire decade of job growth.
btw- Nan G the ace link doesn’t work. The graphic was orginally modified from the government illustration by this blogsite:
Correction to the May Unemployment Chart
The lastest version:
The Census Shores Up the Employment Rate
(most recent update) but they haven’t updated theirs yet to 2011. However, back in May 2010 they were already noting the Census changes manipulating the trend.
@dscott:
Thank, sdscott.
Use the link I provided at the top of my post.
The one here:
Geoff weighs in on why his own creation is now meaningless.
It includes the very latest version of ”the Chart.”
And it also includes the other graph I wanted people to see.
The newer one that measures the Size of the Civilian Labor Force.
The Geoff at Innocent Bystanders is the same Geoff who posts at Ace of Spades.
The economy turned around in mid-2010. The recovery has been steadily gaining strength since then. By mid-2011 this will have become too obvious to deny, although I’m sure some will continue to try. I doubt that will be an effective approach, going into the 2012 elections. People are growing very weary of pessimism. It’s not a good match for the American character and never has been.
Greg–
I’ve experienced “good economies” in my life. You can tell it’s a good economy because prospective employers are calling YOU, not the other way around. How many calls have you had in the last twelve months?
Obama even predicted that WITHOUT the so-called ”Stimulus” the economy would have turned around during 2010.
See the chart Geoff created.
I linked to it above.
So, no surprise there.
It is just such an anemic recovery that 1 out of every 7 Americans is now on Food Stamps,
almost 50% of all Americans get cash back when they send in their Income Tax Forms, and, for us to ever get back to the level of employment we had before Obama will take, at this rate, ten or more years!
Americans have lost between 30 and 50% of the value in their homes.
Americans are seeing inflation where it counts, in food and gas/energy prices.
But things are INCHING upwards.
That is an improvement IF it is not on the back of a FEDERAL RESERVE BUBBLE.
But it looks like that’s what it is.
An interesting fact: The largest processor of food stamps in the United States is J P Morgan.
I find it interesting that 40% of all foodstamp recipients are currently working. Apparently one can work in America and still be too poor to buy enough to eat.
Although we probably won’t agree on the reasons for it, we probably will agree that something is wrong with that picture.
Greg, you don’t have a clue about food stamps. Hell, the wife and I would qualify for food stamps based upon our income, but since we have more than $3,000 in our retirement fund, we’re not eligible. But we’re doing quite nicely without them, thankyouvery much.
You don’t understand a lot of things, but I notice that doesn’t stop you from posting your ignorant BS.
Admittedly I’ve never received food stamps, unemployment compensation, or any other sort of public assistance. Still, I believe I’m entitled to hold opinions about such things. I’ve spent the past 35 years helping to pay for them and continue to do so.
Greg–
Sure, you’re entitled to hold opinions, but let me give you a piece of advice: Try and base your opinions on facts, not the other way around.
I’m just waiting for the numbers when this Un Sustainably Huge Government gets whittled down
to a FUNCTIONAL Size and these Appointed Czars and other Fools get sent back to their Academic
Castles in the Sand when the Current Regime is replaced.
http://dougpowers.com/2011/02/05/obama-businesses-have-reponsibility-to-help-economy-grow/
( Now this nugget from the Most Economically Illiterate POTUS Evah! )
There is another demographic that isn’t counted, the small business man who has never filled out a job application. They qualify for sweet bugger all; to the Socialist, small business men are an embarrassment to the cause of Socialism and need to be figuratively liquidated as soon as possible. If they don’t qualify for a government or union job, they should disappear, the sooner the better.
How many millions of them are sitting around wondering how long it will be before their personal house of cards will collapse. There are only so many places to cut back on your lifestyle in order to just survive and be able to pay your bills without even considering the possibility of paying yourself the first dollar. When that demographic crashes and burns, there are no safety nets, they go down and they will take a significant portion of the economy with them. Obama can make all the silly comments about the health of the economy he wants, but this is a huge group of quiet people who once represented a huge piece of the economy and hired many people, they are now just barely hanging on, as the economy continues to worsen, they get ever closer to the abyss: when they go, there will be no turning anything around for decades. Obama can have his silly fantasies about increasing taxes, increasing energy costs, and increasing greenhouse gas regulations to help the economy and put Americans to work in non-existent green jobs; the truth is, they are all economy killers that only hasten the end of prosperity and the economic vitality of our country.
In the name of increased profits, corporate America has engaged in the wholesale outsourcing of American jobs for well over a decade. This began with the outsourcing of low-skill jobs and the production of low-tech consumer goods; it has evolved to include high-skill technical jobs and the outsourcing of cutting edge product manufacturing. So, when you extrapolate that trend to its logical conclusion, who’s left here with enough income to buy your high-end consumer products? And who’s left to pay taxes?
Business should be thinking about more than making profits. Thought must also be given to maintenance of the marketplace where you intend to sell your products. Otherwise there will be no profits to be made.
Is there some flaw in my logic?
@Greg: Yes, Your Logic is 1+1=3 Again.
Those who could not run a Lemonade stand and break even and use Your logic are the Folks that You want to hold Office and Tax and Over Regulate the Republic into Extinction?
Thats called MEDDLING and OVERREACH.
OK? You would understand if it was YOUR Capital at risk. Your Money…The Fruits of YOUR Labor and Your Individual Productivity that YOU earned by producing a Product and selling it to meet Costs and a Payroll if You have ever done that….
Here Ya go…
Lemonade Stand Economics – Penalizing Productivity
You are just Hopeless if this does not make my point…
OT, that was an excellent link. The kid is cute and the situation would be funny if it were not so accurate in portraying the plight of the small business man. If they put a few extra zeros on everything, it would be very accurate; although, the need to keep things simple is logical, since there is no need to explain things to the real business men who are being affected, the target audience is the Liberal.
Didn’t I hear recently that Government Moters moved almost 1000 jobs to Mexico? Who runs government motors? Now, who are these greedy corporations? I would bet that if you look in your 401K, you own stock in one or more of these greedy corporations. That means that you, Greg, have voted for current management and that you by your vote have condoned the direction the corporation is going. (failing to not vote in a corporate election also supports the dierction of the corporation.)
There are no greedy corporations, there are just stock holders trying to keep maintain a return on their investments. When government burdens those corporations, they do what is in the best interest of their stock holders. Taxes on corporations is a double tax. Stock holders are again taxed on the corporate income as it is diestributed to stock holders after the corporate tax. Tax avoidance is legal. Corporate leaders owe it to their stock holders to conserve their investment. What do you think will happen as Obamacare is fully operational. Corporations do not have to pay for health insurance for out of country employees. It is very easy to sit down and dash off a few lines in a post. It is much harder to think before you do it!
From Old Trooper’s #16.
I think key to Obama’s words was the qualifier…..
Well….Obama has done quite the opposite, thank you very much.
America business is becoming mired in Red Tape, Uncertainty, and Expensive New Socialistic Programs.
Not only did ObamaCare pass, with all its special hoops for business owners, but now Obama wants to demand that business owners support – for free with no productivity – ”workers” while they do Obama-volunteer stuff!
So, look at what our parsing, just words, lawyer of a president actually said.
He very well knows he has not and will never, “make America the best place to do business.”
But, by using those words in a sentence he thinks he’s fooling some of us.
Skookum, I could not resist posting that You Tube clip for the Economic Illiterates like our Friend Greg.
Randy, the Current Regime made sure that Chrysler/Benz Stockholders got Stiffed on the buyout/bailouts and Gummint Motors concessions to the Unions set the example of how Team Obama has made doing business in the US a punitive endeavor. Folks that could not run a Lemonade stand and break even are running the show now and folks like Greg just don’t get it because they have never taken any risk to build a damn thing.
Nan, I hear you. Dolts that wonder why Investors are nervous in the US Economic Climate that Team Obama created are just clueless. Bread & Circus took down the Roman Empire faster than the Huns. Redistribution of Wealth will be the Death of the Republic as much as Team Obama’s failed Foreign policies are killing Alliances that took decades to build. Small Businesses, as Skookum described are on the ropes, the actual back bone of the economy and the employer of tens of Millions of Americans.
Team Obama is the perfect Storm that WILL destroy the Republic faster than any Foreign Invader if allowed to do so. The American Electorate placed the Lunatics in charge of the Asylum. That 53% that bought off on the BS and now are wondering how this happened.
Any Doubters need to check on the value of their property and the drop of their 401Ks or the Tax Increases that are coming sure as sunrise. Americans that are VESTED in Social Security and MEDICARE need to take off their rose colored glasses. We are headed for a new Era in the History of the Republic that will make the Great Depression look like a Church Picnic if the irresponsible Policies and Gummint Meddling is not curtailed. You cannot borrow & spend a Nation into prosperity. But You can make a Train Wreck out of what once was the greatest Nation on the planet…just through letting the Lunatics continue to run the Asylum down the wrong path.
@Old Trooper 2, #23: “Dolts that wonder why Investors are nervous in the US Economic Climate that Team Obama created are just clueless.”
Perhaps a few of us remember what the economic climate was like and where it all appeared to be headed shortly before Obama arrived in the White House. I doubt if any American president since FDR has found a more precarious state of affairs already there waiting for him, or an engraged political opposition so totally committed to bringing about his failure.
@Greg: You still don’t get it. It is 100% about Competency and Economic Literacy. You are still as Clueless as the Fools that You Support and missed the Point.
When running a Business is beyond Your Skill level, You have no Business trying to Run an Economy.
Ever run a Business, Produce a Product or Meet a Payroll out of YOUR Pocket and not using OPM?
That’s Other Peoples Money. Get it? If You use Other Peoples Money they have a REASONABLE Expectation of a RETURN on THEIR Investment. OK?
FDR prolonged the depression by the HIS failed Policies. You failed Econ 101 and have Failed History as well. Obama never held a job in his Life that produced a Product that was sold to meet a Payroll, meet the Cost of Production and yield anything of any Use for Anyone but Himself.
Yup, You qualify as a Dolt and there is No Free Ice Cream. Someone pays for it. Penalizing those that Produce is Class Warfare and Your understanding of How a Successful Economy works is just beyond Your Grasp.
@Greg:
Greg, Obama brought it on himself.
Look when the bottom dropped out.
As soon as Hillary was NOT the Dem candidate.
Heck, I’d have been OK with her.
Everyone pretty much knew McCain was going to lose.
But to whom?
When we all realized it was Obama (spread the wealth around) our financial advisers and economic pundits did all they could to show us business owners the best way to weather the Obama years.
At our business we let people who retired not be replaced so we could drop below the 50 employee cut-off that would have made us liable to all sorts of extra woes from Obama.
Many doctors retired early or went into other parts of the medical field.
Older people who were laid off and could not get work took early retirements.
But them Obama added to his own planned uncertainties with many more.
He made it seem OK to simply rent F***.
He made it seem OK to simply mortgage F***.
He added up to 99 weeks of unemployment.
He put more people on Food Stamps than EVER, 1 out of 7 Americans.
He screwed the stockholders of the auto companies to reward his union cronies.
He phonied up car sales with rebates.
He phonied up home sales with rebates.
He phonied up green energy sales with rebates.
All on the taxpayers’ dime.
All bubbles that burst.
He encouraged the printing of huge amounts of cash.
Another bubble, this one with inflation added.
Now he is hit from the side by Egypt and oil prices.
He has NO RESERVES.
He has run through all of it.
Instead of trying to really help the economy, Obama kept nationalizing one part of it after another: medicine, auto industry, housing, banking, maybe next even food and farming.
When Obama says a few good words about wanting to look at all the federal regulations to see where we can help make things easier on businesses, he is skipping all of his own red tape, all his own going around the Legislature by regulating through federal agencies, all of his own fees and taxes.
So, don’t say ”he inherited it.”
It would not be the worst recession in post WWII history had he taken a business-friendly approach at the start.
@Old Trooper 2: OT2, please could you quit dancing around the May pole and tell us what you really think! LOL