As protests become even larger it appears that Egyptian President Mubarak has asked his government to resign:
Embattled President Hosni Mubarak says he has asked his Cabinet to resign in his first appearance on television since protests erupted demanding his ouster.
He says he will press ahead with social, economic and political reforms. He calls anti-government protests part of plot to destabilize Egypt and destroy the legitimacy of his regime.
He may be right according to the BBC:
The American Embassy in Cairo helped a young dissident attend a US-sponsored summit for activists in New York, while working to keep his identity secret from Egyptian state police.
On his return to Cairo in December 2008, the activist told US diplomats that an alliance of opposition groups had drawn up a plan to overthrow President Hosni Mubarak and install a democratic government in 2011.
~~~The US government has previously been a supporter of Mr Mubarak’s regime. But the leaked documents show the extent to which America was offering support to pro-democracy activists in Egypt while publicly praising Mr Mubarak as an important ally in the Middle East.
In a secret diplomatic dispatch, sent on December 30 2008, Margaret Scobey, the US Ambassador to Cairo, recorded that opposition groups had allegedly drawn up secret plans for “regime change” to take place before elections, scheduled for September this year.
The memo, which Ambassador Scobey sent to the US Secretary of State in Washington DC, was marked “confidential” and headed: “April 6 activist on his US visit and regime change in Egypt.”
It said the activist claimed “several opposition forces” had “agreed to support an unwritten plan for a transition to a parliamentary democracy, involving a weakened presidency and an empowered prime minister and parliament, before the scheduled 2011 presidential elections”. The embassy’s source said the plan was “so sensitive it cannot be written down”.
Ambassador Scobey questioned whether such an “unrealistic” plot could work, or ever even existed. However, the documents showed that the activist had been approached by US diplomats and received extensive support for his pro-democracy campaign from officials in Washington. The embassy helped the campaigner attend a “summit” for youth activists in New York, which was organised by the US State Department.
~~~The protests in Egypt are being driven by the April 6 youth movement, a group on Facebook that has attracted mainly young and educated members opposed to Mr Mubarak. The group has about 70,000 members and uses social networking sites to orchestrate protests and report on their activities.
Now, the question is, if the protests succeed in toppling Mubarak….is that a good thing? Was that a good thing in 1979? Will fanatic islamists take advantage of this vacuum in power? Lots of questions.
A senior retired CIA agent says this revolution may not be a good thing for the US (not sure of the validity of this person so take this information for what’s its worth):
His assessment (in shorthand:)
1. If Egypt falls, disaster for US. Put succinctly; “the horse we bet all our life savings on may be about to drop dead in the backstretch.”
2. If Egypt gmvt falls, radical Muslim Brotherhood will be the new power, totally.
3. If Egypt falls, Jordan and Saudi are in trouble, but not necessarily gone. Even Syria is not safe.
4. Although Muslim Brotherhood would take over, the cause of revolt is not religion but the lack of jobs, horrible standard of living. Saudi and Jordan citizens have somewhat better conditions, so might be saved.
5. Egyptian Army is the absolute key. If Army stays local, Mubarak may be safe. If they falter, he is absolute toast.
6. Problem is, Army does not like Mubarak. They loved Sadat, he was one of them, but they do not like Hosni.
7. If Egypt falls, biggest winners are Iran and Russia. Iran becomes big kid on block. Russia desperately needs crude oil prices to go up to help economy. They prosper at $90 barrel crude. This could create $220, $250 a barrel crude oil prices
8. Big loser? Surprisingly not Israel. Just more enemies… who all know Israel will take war nuc if necessary to save self…. but due to US aid, Egyptian Army has great American equipment.
9. Biggest loser #2; Western Europe
10. Biggest loser #1; USA. Oil prices cripple economy. Even worse, word in every diplomatic circle becomes “See what happens to America’s friends.”
Bottom line; possible/probable disaster for US
But….if we can back this revolution with REAL backing, and prevent the fanatic islamists, like the Muslim Brotherhood, from interjecting themselves into this new government then this could be a great thing for the Egyptian people and the world but WHO has the organization and power to take control? And is this just a coincidence that Tunisia, Yemen, Jordan and now Egypt just happen to have protests break out within days of each other?
Lots of questions.
UPDATE
President to speak in a few minutes
UPDATE
U.S. crude oil futures settled more than 4 percent higher on Friday on concerns that protests in Egypt may widen and threaten stability in the Middle East.
UPDATE
@ChuckTodd: Pres. Obama just got off the phone with Mubarak, spoke for approx 30 mins. POTUS will share highlights in minutes w/public.
UPDATE
Pretty much nothing of a speech from the President except the usual platitudes of hoping for reform and “turn the internet back on.”
UPDATE
“Mubarak became president only after the assassination of his predecessor, Anwar El Sadat (Sadat was hated for making peace with Israel). Osama bin Laden’s lieutenant, Ayman al-Zawahiri, had worked to overthrow Sadat, and was arrested following the assassination.
~~~Egypt has resisted Sharia law — so far — primarily because the terrain allows secular leaders like Mubarak to fend off Islamist insurgents — unlike in Afghanistan or Pakistan. But make no mistake, Egypt was always the most desired goal for conquest.”
UPDATE
Have to say that I agree with Rep. Thaddeus McCotter here:
The Egyptian demonstrations are not the equivalent of Iran’s 2009 Green Revolution. The Egyptian demonstrations are the reprise of Iran’s 1979 radical revolution.
Thus, America must stand with her ally Egypt to preserve an imperfect government capable of reform; and prevent a tyrranical government capable of harm.
For if Egypt is radicalized, all of the reforms sought by the Egyptian people and supported by the United States with them – including consensual and constitutional government; free elections; open and unbridled media; and Egyptian control of their natural resources – will be lost. Nascent democratic movements in the region will be co-opted and radicalized. The world’s free and open access to the Suez Canal’s vital commercial shipping lanes will be choked. And the Sinai Accord between Egypt and Israel – which must be protected as the foundation and principal example for Mideast peace – will be shredded.
Though many will be tempted to superficially interpret the Egyptian demonstrations as an uprising for populist democracy, they must recall how such similar initial views of the 1979 Iranian Revolution were belied by the mullahs’ radical jackbooted murderers, who remain bent upon grasping regional hegemony and nuclear weaponry.
In this crisis, the American people deserve candor and action from President Obama, and President Hosni Mubarak and General Tantwai.
This is not a nostalgic “anti-colonial uprising” from within, of all places, the land of Nassar. Right now, freedom’s radicalized enemies are subverting Egypt and other our allies.
Inexcusably, this crisis has been hastened and exacerbated by the U.S. Administration’s refusal to whole-heartedly embrace Iran’s truly democratic 2009 Green Revolution. Make no mistake: strategically and cynically, freedom’s radicalized enemy is exploiting a real religion to undermine liberty and true reform just as Soviet communism posed as a secular creed to obtain the same illegitimate ends.
If we fail to meet today’s enemy on the same determined, principled terms, we will too late awake in a nightmare world. But, if today’s enemy is steadfastly met and bested, liberty and the rule of law will be unleashed for millions throughout the world.
This is the crisis; such are the stakes; and I stand ready to assist President Obama in the pursuit of of a policy that defends our invaluable ally; and advances Eyptians’ inalienable, peaceful aspirations
See author page
Some relevant facts about Egypt.
Egypt is home to over 80 Million people.
Only 26 Million of them are in the labor force.
10% unemployment rate. (TV says closer to 25% but where’d they got that?)
(Compare that with the USA, 306 Million people with 154 Million of them, more than 1/2, in the labor force.)
20% of the 80 Million live in poverty.
The median age in Egypt is only 24.
(Compare that to 38 for the USA)
Although 83% of men can read, only 60% of females can.
Tourism is Egypt’s main source of income. (Kiss that goodbye)
The Suez Canal is also a good source of income. (But if Islamists take over its use will be a bargaining chip.)
As Nan knows, I’ve posted this on another post on this site. Now more than ever, I am in fact worried about the outcome here.
Could all the turmoil we are seeing in Muslim countries be an offshoot of perceived weakness on the part of the United States and her allies! I for one have always felt this President is firmly on the side of the Muslim world as a whole. Certainly he is the most antagonistic President as in his stance on Israel I have ever seen. As we now are at the point in which we have elected officials telling the Muslim world this country is full of racist hate and an administration that in almost every stance is extremely ” Anti-American ideals” why should one be surprised that these radical Muslim Fundamentalists are taking their shots now? After all, the administration only yesterday as an example declared the Egyptian government was stable. No surprise from the blind mice running the show in D.C. now is it?
It is my understanding Iran is ecstatic about the coming regime change in Egypt. If so, what does this do to the region? It in fact puts another knife at Israel’s throat along with another one aimed squarely at the U.S. which we know for sure will threaten oil supplies and therefore raise oil prices thus causing more economic problems.
What bothers me is the involvment of the Muslim Brotherhood which has strong backing from Iran. The Muslim Brotherhood are Islamists, and remember, it was the claim that the outing of the Shah in Iran would bring more freedom to Iranians, only to have the Islamists step in an take over. If the Muslim Brotherhood take control of the rioting and protests, we are virtually looking at another Iran. And we know how well that is working.
Mubarak may be a dictator, but he is OUR dictator and has been a close ally on the war against radical Islamist terrorists. If he falls, and the Muslim Brotherhood take over, kiss that goodby. And watch to see the same movements in Jordan and other ME nations, because none of them have a decent employment rate or a low poverty rate. And don’t kid yourself; Iran is standing by with the gas can to pour on the Egyptian fire.
Yemen might fold to Muslim Fundamentalism, but I don’t believe for one minute that this will happen to Egypt.
Too many in Egypt have enjoyed the advantages of the Internet and interaction with the rest of the world. They are educated, and have an understanding of what it means to have influence on government through democratic means. A great many are also very cosmopolitan.
Poverty in Egypt wants a piece of the wealth that the country has enjoyed over the past quarter century, but too many know that religious fundamentalism governing the country isn’t the answer for a replay of the Iranian revolution to occur. Many Iranians feel the same way, thanks in large part to the Internet.
I notice the MSM is claiming that the protests demanding democracy are an outcome of Obama’s speech in Cairo June 2009. What a pathetic bit of thinking, and insult to intelligent Arabs. The Arab world across the top of the African continent – Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt – is moving into the 21st century, while we’re preoccupied with watching Muslim Fundamentalist take the headlines with terrorism. It takes more than some silly pablum from Obama to ignite a revolution. For now he should demonstrate emphatic support for democratic reform and support of the crowds who appear to represent the majority of the population.
As for President Hosni Mubarak, who has been at or near the top of the Egyptian food chain for about a third of a century, he is done – finished.
James…most of that was the case in Iran. They were well educated, westerninized and and also had an understanding of what Democracy means. I’ll give Obama credit here, he didn’t pull a Jimmy Carter…people inside his Administration must of remembered how well that worked out. Instead of backing one side or another they are insisting Mubarak change. Not a bad play at all.
I wish I shared your attitude toward Egypt, James Raider.
Did you know that no more than 25% of those eligible to vote even bother to in Egypt?
And election before last when only 150 of the 508 seats in the Egyptian gov’t were up the Muslim Brotherhood (under various independent party names) won the majority of the seats?
They had 88 seats.
Out of 508.
And that in a dishonest election.
Were you one of those folks surprised that the people in Gaza voted in Hamas?
Given the chance to have a fair election I bet the Muslim Brotherhood wins it all.
@Curt:
Youtube is full of videos of the days before the Shah was ousted. I wonder what our current crop of university idiots would think if they saw Iranian women in positions of scientific research; men and women attending university together and no one complaining about how the women were dressed (western mini-skirts); cheer leaders for the Iranian soccer team. But the Iranians complained about how the Shah was stealing their money. Now they have none, and the Iranian youth has dire prospects for their future because Islam is everything there.
It was the intent of the Shah to drag Iran into the 20th century. Now they are in the 7th century. This is exactly what lies on the horizon for Egypt if the protesters take over (backed by the Muslim Brotherhood).
@ Nan G.,
The current system in Egypt is not a democracy. People don’t vote because there is no vote that counts other than to rubber stamp. Mubarak’s opposition doesn’t exist. He’s done a good job of getting rid of it.
@ Curt,
The Iranian revolution and the constitution which resulted, are now about 32 years old. The highest authority in the country was invested in their supreme (religious) leader. When those foundations were set, the Internet as we know it now was less than a vague concept.
The real power of the Internet to affect broad awareness and sweeping positive social change is probably about a decade old. It’s difficult to assess the real support for the “supreme leader” concept in Iran, beside the total number of government employees who are paid to demonstrate support. Nevertheless, Iranians I have had discussions with, place that real support in the single digit percentages of the population.
It’s unclear who’s ideas Biden is promoting, but his pronouncements supportive of Mubarak are misguided. On the other hand, I find it helpful that Obama has supposedly asked Mubarak to reinstate the Internet, cell phones and social media, if in fact he did so.
It’s entirely possible that fundamentalists in Egypt, with Iranian government help, could push to a position of control, but I feel the current democratic winds are too strong to be stopped and turned into yet another religious kleptocracy.
Whose side is Obama on?
Obama Administration Lifts US Ban
on Muslim Brotherhood Leader
@Nan G:
And liberals wonder why some people think obama is a muslim. Yeesh.
Not exactly inspiring to those who live in Egypt basically that despite the US and the west proud advocacy for democracy to cure the ills of the world, that Egypt should accept and continue to live under the deeply corrupt dictatorship of Mubarak because alternative would likely be much worst and besides it would damage US interests and put oil prices up! I suspect the same argument could have been made before the US revolution – if we kick out the unfair and unpopular George III – the Colonies might fall under a European nation worst than Britain. Fortunately Washington wasn’t so timid.
Let’s hope Mubarak does fall – the people have ever reason to want to see the back of him. It would be terrible if the Islamists did get in but even the chance of freedom it is worth the risk. At least the US wouldn’t have to pay the billions it currently spends propping up the undemocratic and corrupt current regime.
Apparently thousands are protesting today only because Mubarak turned off their Internet and texting ability.
I wonder how many options Obama could have had ae off the table because our own country’s economic woes are so bad.
We see groceries, gas and oil prices rising, home prices dropping and unemployment rising.
Some pundit (I’ve been on every channel, so, I don’t remember who or where) said Egypt’s food prices and shortages were one of the instigating issues of all of the riots.
We had just seen food rioting in a few other countries the week before those riots broke out.
Egypt, like most Sharia states, is a very paternalistic state.
People are dependent on the government handing things out to them after a systematic, almost symbolic begging arrangement.
This reinforces the relationship between the rulers and the ruled.
Apparently, in Egypt as well as in other places, the ruled felt they could leave more and more folks out of the loop.
But that’s a recipe for disaster, these folks have no where else to go.
We would call this corruption, but for a Sharia state it is business-as-usual.
Look at it this way – when Egypt falls, presumably there will be a way for us to stop making the huge payments that were part of Carter’s Camp David Accords. So, we have deficit reduction as an upside.
@joetote: You are definitely on the problem…Obama has spent over two years showing the world how weak we have become and that he does not have the will to play in world politics…so when the rest of the world saw this they said hey..now we can play with no fear! He makes Jimmy look strong…..oh well 2012 is coming if we don’t weaken further and screw up again.
@Nan G: Hey Nan don’t you find it funny that Mubahuk has no problem with closing off all communication (net etc.) and Mr. Obama is asking for that ability from Congress and so far the subcomittee is so stupid as to go along with it…ye cats dumber and dumber