Pennsylvania Primary Predictions (?)
Pennsylvania’s primary election is fast approaching, with one of the nation’s hottest special election occurring, the spotlight is on Pennsylvania on Tuesday. As a lifelong resident of Philadelphia, let me share some insights on some of the races in Pennsylvania.
Pat Toomey vs Peg Lusik: In a nutshell, this is Toomey’s race and I predict he will carry this primary election easily.
Sestak vs Specter: Rasmussen has Sestak moving slightly ahead of Specter in polling last week. Not surprising as Specter has the same dismal appeal to Democrats in PA as McCain had to Republicans in 2008. As Democrat voters take a closer look at Specter, the more favorable the polling numbers look for Sestak. Personally, I would like to see Specter carry this primary election. As the Democrat candidate, Specter will energize the Republican vote in the general election and carry Toomey to a clear victory. Incidentally, Rasmussen shows dead even polling with a Sestak/Toomey matchup in November.
National news and bloggers have the Toomey/Specter/Sestack vote-a-trois covered. Robert Stacey McCain is hyperventilating over the CD-12 race, but there are a few key CD races that bear a closer look in Pennsylvania:
CD-12 John Murtha’s district. Houston, we’ve got a problem. Tim Burns is PA GOP Chairman Rob Gleason’s golden boy. Rob Gleason an integral part of the GOP party machine who was a close friend and business partner with John Murtha. Despite rallying calls of Burns being the next Scott Brown, the race is polling dead even. The district is gerrymandered in favor of the Democrats with a 2:1 Dem voter registration lead. If Burns wins, don’t cry to me when he turn RINO. RS McCain, love you but we will have to agree to disagree on Tim Burns
CD-13 3 candidates vying for retiring Allyson Schwartz. Haughton vs Adcock vs Quinter. This is my congressional district, which has suffered under the fiscal mismanagement of the current Democrat Congresswoman, Allyson Schwartz. If the endorsed Republican candidate, Dee Adcock, wins the primary election, he will lose badly in a general election against Allyson Schwartz. All is not lost in my home district, constituents have a chance to unseat this entrenched party incumbent by electing Josh Quinter on Tuesday. Oh, there is one other race that has captured my attention – my own race for a GOP committee seat in the 13th district. I predict a stunning win for the blogger turned committee woman.
CD-6 – Jim Gerlach is the endorsed Republican running and will win the primary. However, I am paying close attention to who will win the Dem primary: Doug Pike, a former staffer with the Philadelphia Inquirer, who is more popular with young women in southeast asia than among the constituents in CD6 or Manan Trivedi, a staunch anti-war candidate. Will the wave of anti-incumbent sentiment hurt Jim Gerlach in the general election? We will have to wait and see.
CD-7 – Republican Pat Meehan will collect his reward for being a faithful party insider by winning the primary vote. The general election will not be as easy for him against Brian Lentz.
CD-8 – Former Republican Congressman, Mike Fitzpatrick, will clinch the primary vote and oust the moveon.org sponsored Patrick Murphy (D) in the general election come November.
Any questions?