I’m certainly no financial expert, and there’s plenty of opinions from such self-proclaimed, brilliant minds. But, I’m not sure they’re as important as what the average person is thinking about the economy. We are the people who matter the most when it comes to fueling the economy, and I wonder what other people are thinking 2010 is going to be like? Looking at the very clear charts in this post, it seems to me that unemployment is starting to level off at a bottom of about 11-12% in the next few months.
However, I don’t see how the economy as a whole can return to firing on all cylinders with consumer spending down. The wages to inflation ratio is all off, and people just aren’t spending like they did in the recovery phase of other recessions. I also don’t see what new boom is gonna be a driving factor: junk bonds, dot-com/internet, housing, these things came and went, but after each there was a recession, then a new boom to fuel the recovery. Does anyone see a new multi-trillion dollar boom or bubble on the horizon? I don’t. Lastly, I don’t see how the end of the Bush tax cuts, lots of tiny new Obama era taxes, and possibly more taxes on businesses ala cap-n-trade+healthcare will all make it MORE lucrative for businesses to hire and invest, and spend/buy? Put another way: why would a guy who runs a small machine shop buy new equipment and/or hire new machinists if he has less money because of new taxes?
Please, I am inviting/challenging all to post what they think 2010 will look like economically. Will things get better, stay static, or get worse? When? How? Why?
Author of “Reparations and America’s 2nd Civil War
Reparations and America’s 2nd Civil War: Malensek, Scott: 9798864028674: Amazon.com: Books
You hooked me when you used machine shops as an example: I’ve been in that business for over 30 years in various capacities, from machinist to CNC operator/programmer to QC Inspector to CAD Designer. I was lucky enough to find a trade (at age 15) that satified the urge to work with my hands as well as my head. I dedicated myself to learn everything I could to become as valuable as possible to my employers.
I was always employed. I stress “was” because recent government efforts have allowed and even hastened the outsourcing of these types of jobs. NAFTA was the beginning of my troubles. I (and everyone else) was laid off within one week of its pasage, right before Thanksgiving. The company I had worked for for 4 years relocated to Mexico.
Since then, work has become increasingly difficult to come by, until today, when my skills won’t even get me an interview. I always get the same reaction to my resume: “Gee, you seem to have an awful lot of experience, but I’m afraid you’ll want too much money.”
Really?
Well, Sparky, that’s why I put in all the hours to learn this stuff, so I could make good money.
Having managed a few shops, one as recently as two years ago, I’ve seen some changes, as you might expect. Between OSHA and environmental regulations, the cost of doing business has increased far more than wages which have remained fairly stagnant over the last ten years here in Florida. Profit margins are shrinking. Credit is difficult to obtain even if your business has good income and a decent cash flow.
American business is in a holding pattern. Owners are waiting to see just how much the new, anti-business legislation by Obama, Pelosi and Reid will negatively affect them. Notice, this isn’t about whether or not these bills are hostile to business, they are. The question is how much more they will add to the cost of doing business. Washington is trying their best to price America out of the marketplace. Add in exorbitant executive salaries and union demands for higher wages and less productivity and you have all the ingredients for a deep and prolonged recession. It’s no coincidence that our current economic woes began with the Democrat takeover of the House.
All that needs to happen to jump-start our economy is for Washington to get out of the way. The best way to do that is to vote for candidates that understand how capitalism works. That is, it works best when those in control are the consumers in the marketplace, not politicians.
No recovery this year. However, I have a solution. (NOTE: I sent this to The Republican National Committee, of which I am a member. Feel free to use it as an Op-Ed piece.): RNC:
We all know America is doomed unless we return to core values and we know the economy is in ruins. We know that IF any recovery takes place, hyper-inflation is sure to manifest itself. (Basic economics. Demand is now low. If demand increases, so too will prices). BUT THERE IS A SOLUTION, and only Conservatives can implement that solution. First, some FACTS on which I’m sure you’ll agree with: A)The jobs lost aren’t coming back, because the Industries that supported them are gone. B) To create new jobs, you need to create 1) A new Industry. 2) One vital to our economy. 3) One that will generate not just jobs, but tax revenue. 4) One that by it’s nature, can’t be shipped offshore. 5) One that by it’s nature, affects every corner of our Nation. 6) One that by it’s nature, will spin off other new Industries. 7) One that will reverse the flow of money outside of America to a flow of money INTO America,8) One that will result in manufacturing returning to America, 9) One that the people will support. 10) One that the Government will support, and finally, 11) ONE THAT WILL STRENGTHEN NOT JUST OUR ECONOMY, BUT OUR NATIONAL SECURITY AS WELL. Does such an Industry actually exist? Why YES! IT DOES! Now, another FACT: (Remember this): “Energy is what keeps us from living in Mud Huts making sharp sticks.” Keep repeating that to your viewers. Let’s see some info you can give them, shall we?
Since Oil was discovered in Pennsylvania in the mid- 1800’s, THE ENTIRE WORLD has used roughly 1-Trillion Barrels of oil. The “Green River Oil Shale Deposit” (Google that to learn more) contains an estimated 2-Trillion barrels of recoverable oil. And it sits on Federal Land. (We own it). Bush wouldn’t harvest it because of obvious ties to “BIG OIL.” (Royal Dutch Shell has the bid on it, not an American Company). One totally new Industry must be created to harvest and refine it. Using BIG AMERICAN COMPANIES like Grumman, Westinghouse, Caterpillar, GE, United Technologies, Kaman, Texrel, and big transportation, like Georgia Pacific Rail. SECONDLY, There are more BTU’S of energy underground in West Virginia in Coal than there is under the sands of Saudi Arabia in oil. All States combined, America has more BTU’s of energy in Coal Reserves than all the OPEC COUNTRIES POSSESS>
In the 1930’s Germany (Under WWI blockade and having no known oil reserves)perfected the Fischer–Tropsch process, a catalyzed chemical reaction in which synthesis gas (a mixture of carbon monoxide and hydrogen) is converted into liquid hydrocarbons of various forms.The principal purpose of this process is to produce a synthetic petroleum substitute, typically from coal, for use as synthetic lubrication oil or as synthetic fuel. This synthetic fuel runs trucks, cars, and aircraft engines. (Germany would later use this synthesized aircraft fuel and diesel to fuel their Panzer and Luftwaffe Divisions). Imagine this new Industry that takes 1/3 of our commercial vehicles off of Crude oil-based fuel. WE CAN DO THIS! We’re America!
I’ve not even mentioned Domestic Drilling, Nuclear or Natural Gas energy harvesting.
And what about another new indusrty created by doing this: Land Reclamation? Paid for by a small 50-cent per ton tax levied on mined coal or Oil Shale (To produce Shale Oil). Again – NEW INDUSTRY, with jobs that can never be outsourced. America could become the world’s leading energy exporter, instead of it’s leadig importer. Think of what that means for our National Security, and for Income and sales tax revenues. And the flow of money back into America instead of out.
And because this incredible economic recovery will be BECAUSE of a massive influx in Independent Energy Production, energy prices won’t inflate. They’ll actually decline, preventing hyper-inflation and allowing Americans more disposable income. The dominos of recovery will be all lined up. A President could do all this with a simple stroke of a pen, BY EXCECUTIVE ORDER, citing National Security and our National Economy. BOLD? Sure! But I would do it in a New York Minute. People are angry. They’re tired of wars (political or otherwise) over energy. They want to work, they want jobs. They don’t believe in man-made “Climate Change.” We Republicans can sell his, and do this. Real results. Real jobs. A Stronger and more secure America. I respectively request that you good folks consider and support this plan as THE MAJOR PLANK in our conservatives next Campaign Platforms. The resulting debate will forever diminish and expose “The Environmental Left” as the Anti-Americans they are. Their Domestic Energy Policies have crippled an brought America to it’s knees. We can not allow that to continue.
My view is that this nation is going to slip from a recession into a depression…
People can say the recession is over but there are millions of unemployed/under employed in this country who could argue that position…
The amount of debt that we are piling onto the backs of the people of this country will dictate huge increases in taxes just to keep even with the debt load we are letting our government force upon us…
I wish I saw it differently because I expect my job to become a casualty of what the last admin and this one have done to add to our national debt…Thomas Jefferson knew the dangers of debt and warned us against it yet we move forward ignoring the advice of this man because apparently those in control of the purse strings know better…
I still have a good paying job right now but somewhere during 2010 I expect to be looking for a new job and I expect myself and my family will have to drastical adjust our lifestyle to accomodate President HopenChanges vision for his new America…
I think we are boned….
I am not holding out much hope. I own a small retail business and I am struggling to make ends meet.
In 2004 (under the evil GWB and the Repub. controled Congress) I took in, gross, over $289,000. My numbers stayed in that general area, just slightly less in 2005 and 2006. In 2007, the first year of a Dem. controlled congress my numbers are almost $198,000; in 2008 just over $184,000 and in 2009 (since BHO took office and the Dems have gone on their spending spree) just under $133,000. And the beginnings of this year looks bleak to me.
I had to layoff my only employee…..which was not something I did not want to do, but I cannot meet all the payroll taxes, etc that having an employee requires.
I sgree with the above posts. We are going to slip into a Depression this year. Regardless of what the media is telling us.
I just wish it was mandatory for all members of Congress to have to work in the real world for several years before they go to Congress. Then maybe they would see the destructive nature of their policies
Speaking of machine shops, my friend owns one in the Los Angeles area. Recently he spent $50,000 on a new 5-axis, 30,000 RPM CNC milling center. He didn’t really need it for anything, but his accountant told him that if he didn’t spend 50 grand on _something_, he would be giving it to the IRS instead.
@ 5
John Cooper, I can remember pricing one of those machines at three times that price less than a decade ago.
I hope your friend has enough business to keep it humming.
It dawned on me that I ranted more than I prognosticated in my post above.
If real, true conservatism stages a comeback, then I see a robust rebound much sooner than would’ve normally happened in a typical cycle. Perhaps by year’s end.
If anti-business anti-Americans such as Obama, Reid, and Pelosi continue to be elected, then it will be a long while before we recover, if at all.
Well we are headed straight towards the double dipper. But first, let me question this figure of 10% unemployment which makes absolutely no sense. According to government figures it is more like 13.33% and with the ones who gave up looking for work and who are underemployed it is 21%. It is not 10%!
A few days ago I wrote a piece where I explained this.
According To Government Figures 50 million Workers Have Disappeared
We are going to do back of the envelope math and you tell us what this means.
According to The Bureau of Labor Statistics back in the early part of 2009 the unemployment rate was at 7.2%, which it stated was 11.1million people out of work. So divide 11.1/.072=154 million in the workforce. Source:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
As of April 2009, the specific number was 154,731,000 in the civilian workforce. There was also approximately 1,500,000 in the military workforce.
The current population of the US is 306,531,009, meaning that more than half of the US was working. Out of the whole population, 11.1 million were out of work, 43 million are elderly (65+), 48 million are stay-at-home moms/dads, and 73 million are children under 18.”
Now we have just learned from a December 31, 2009 article from the Associated Press that the government is now issuing 20 million unemployment checks. Source: http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9CUGAH80.htm
Finally yesterday in a Yahoo finance article it was revealed that the real unemployment figure is about 17.3%. The reality is that unemployment is under reported by about 50% of the government figures and it is noew not very hard to figure out with hard numbers.
source: http://debttalkwithpmg.blogspot.com/2010/01/real-unemployment-rate-at-173.html
We also know that the government is telling us that unemployment is 10%. If that is true and 20 million unemployed ( i.e. 20 million unemployment checks) represents that 10% doesn’t this mean that there are a total of 200 million in the workforce? But then according to the government’s very same statistics there are only roughly 150 million in the work force. Somehow we have lost 50 million people somewhere. And it cannot be argued in any way that those 50 million magically found work. 20 million unemployment checks means 20 million checks.
The other explanation is that the real figure of people in the workforce is 150 million because this figure has been quoted for several years not 200 million.
If we then use the 150 million figure representing the number in the workforce and we know that 20 million receive unemployment checks then the real unemployment figure is 13.33 % ( 20 million divided by 150 million) and if we add the people who have given up and no longer receiving unemployment and those underemployed the figure is more in the 21% range.
The government has so cooked the books that it cannot even keep track of the hardcore figures anymore and the truth is irritatingly clear. There is no guess work here. We are using their figures.
We can also conlcude that we are at the cusp of a double dipper not a bottom. The reason is that all you need do is study the treasury payroll reports and see that revenues are dropping like a fishing line. One can only conclude that more are becoming unemployed not less otherwise how could the payroll tax revenues continue to decline?
Another place to go to is fdic.gov where every Friday you can see what banks have gone bust ( we are averaging 6 per week) and what their assets are being bought for. On average bank assets are fetching 25-40% of value which means that all commercial paper that is not in trouble is only worth 25-40%.
I won’t go into the 500 trillion in derivative messes around the world.
Basically, where we are right now is that Obama is simply buying time for the inevitable conclusion that we are headed lower. The game with these people is just to con the average citizen one more day.
@Gil:
Welcome Gil.
Glad to you’ve found us here at FA.
Here are a couple of articles that I read yesterday that gave me one of those WTF kind of moments:
Now we all know that the Fed Gov’t, regardless of the letter of the party in control, is never completely honest with We the People….
We also know that the Feds routinely, and habitually, understate bad news )ie unemployment) and over state good news (ie GDP growth). Those understatements or overstatements are then routinely brushed away later with “revisions” to the numbers later on when less people are paying attention.
Is it really possible that the Gov’t is truly misleading us on unemployment by double digits? As much as 32%?
With this current batch of corrupt politicos, nothing would surprise me.
Washington, DC needs an infusion of sunshine and a clean sweep.
Rasmussen reported yesterday that 45% of respondents would trust randomly selected names from the phone book more than the currently elected and serving CongressCritters.
I would say that number is actually much higher.
Aye–
32%? How about 120%! The feds tell us the unemployment rate is 10.0%. John Williams of Shadow Stats calculated the correct figure is actually 22%, a whopping 120% increase.
See, I’m one of those missing 50 million people. When I lost my job 5 years ago, I never could find another one. So last year I gave up and took early Social Security instead.
Edit: Also, let’s not forget that the December Household Survey (an alternative measure of employment derived from surveys of households rather than firms) fell by 589k – almost 600% greater than the ‘official’ number.
Still not seeing a lot of responses that say, “In 2010 I expect to see XYZ because of ABC”
Great posts to be sure!!!!!
Still, I’m looking for the best descriptions of 2010 possible.
btw, I’ve seen a lot of reports about food lately. 50% of the world’s fish is grown in fish farms (aquaculture) and 70% of America’s (though, sadly I might have those number reversed). Also, this is 2010, by 2025 (15 short years) the world’s population is expected to be between 8-9 billion people, but there’s supposedly only enough food grown for 6-7billion.
We can also talk about fuel, and how there’s all kinds of predictions about peak oil being reached in the next 10-50yrs. I dunno, but I think we can all find common ground w the idea that gas, oil, petroleum products, heating, and energy ain’t gonna be getting cheaper. It’s gonna be getting more expensive.
2010-year of economic stagnation or downturn (no one seems to have an iota of faith in economic boom or even recovery this year)
2011-2025….hypothetically food and fuel get more expensive. Fewer jobs. What do people do?
…that is unless someone sees some sort of massive recovery or boom.
Anyone?
anyone?
Bueller?
To make good, resonable predictions, an overview of the landscape from my perspective:
Things are fairly tight. Several friends and some family have entered in debt consolidation, not because they lived extravagantly or excessively, but paying on time, payment the amount required … in essense, doing things right. The bills and prices just overran their incomes in a matter of 6-8 weeks in time. If the consolidation doesn’t work, they may be headed for Chapter 13 bankruptcy.
Also, the withhoulding taxes will be increasing. If you have a copy of a pay statement from last year, compare it with one you’ll receive with your first paycheck of the year (or one later this year). This is in advance of the Bush tax cuts sunsetting and new taxes being levied. And, no, you do not need to be earning a whole lot of money.
Personally, my 2009 income has been reduced by roughly 2/3 compared with 2008. Three of the five companies I did contract work for, are now out of business. Of the remaining two, they haven’t required my services as much – preferring to delay the work further down the road. My sister now works four jobs to roughly earn 65% of what she earned in 2008. Her husband works more hours to earn roughly 85% of income he earned in 2008. Their daughter, my niece, is living on a near-shoestring budget though working as an attorney (family and estate law).
My 2010 predictions:
The economy will continue to stagnate. Unemployment may increase, but don’t see it falling anytime soon. Small business, those that survive, will stay on the sidelines in everything they do for the economy.
Personal and household incomes will decrease due to new taxes imposed at all levels (fed, state, local). It will lead to a new round of bankruptcies. It may even lead to a partial run on the banking system.
Outlook:
Hope (not the Obama kind) that we all can hang in there.
Ok. Got it. Here are some 2010 predictions:
-Tishman Real Estate to miss payment on a commercial loan of over $5 billion on a massive New York apartment complex, the 2nd largest default in commercial real estate loans in history.
-California declares an economic emergency.
-Government Employment figures over 13%.
-Apartment vacancies hit record highs.
-Foreclosures are setting new records.
-Consumer credit in the US drops a record $17.5 billion.
-Scott Brown wins the Massachussetts special election for senate.
The next 60 months months are going to be a bloodbath. It does not matter who is in office. There is so much derivative dead weight that it has to purge. Afterwards things are going to start looking up.
Also forgot to add for 2010 gold at $1500+.
Nice job y’all!
I’m gonna go higher on gold, and I’ll say $3000. Crazy, but hear me out.
US holds gold, oil, and foreign currency as liquid reserves to back up its credit. Dems are gonna have to borrow more & that means one or all three of those will have to go up to cover the new debt. They don’t want foreign currency or oil to go up so the better choice is gold since-while all three raise inflation-it raises it the least of the three. Iran crisis will take care of the rise in oil.
Anyone wanna bet on how Dems will go deeper in debt:
-status quo/no new spending just keep on going in debt at current rate
-less/cut spending (c’mon, stop laughing! I had to put in that possibility)
-boost debt by another stimulus or something else?
The comments here are very sobering.
I currently work for the State of California (at the Unemployment office) so I deal with these people every day. One of the things I see is that people have virtually no hope of finding another job. Their Unemployment benefits are keeping some of them from being homeless and others are already homeless and their benefits are merely feeding them.
My own view is that 2010 is going to be worse than 2009, but I wish I knew just how much. The only glimmer of hope is that enough people are sick and tired of where this country is going and they start voting these Socialist DemocRats out of office. (There are many Republicans that need to go too.) Unfortunately, the Republicans are utterly bereft of ideas on how to fix anything and even if they did, they wouldn’t have the sack to carry them out.
While I hope I’m wrong, I can foresee our Economy completely collapsing (but not sure if it will be this year or not). It’s already holding on by a thread and one little (big) thing can push it over the edge, whether it be Debt, Homes or whatever.
I don’t think Republican gains in both Houses will be a significant game-changer in the larger scheme of things. This country is on a one-way trip to economic collapse, without a comprehensive plan for recovery (one like Nostradamus described above) and our country is way too divided for that to happen. Things are likely to sputter-along as it has been for the last year, until the other shoe drops.
Longer-term I can see some armed conflict on our streets when that other shoe does fall.
I hope I’m wrong, but I’m pretty well prepared for that eventuality and you’d all be well-advised to do the same.
@Scott Malensek (#15) –
After laughing non-stop for a few minutes, I don’t see the Dems cut spending/spending less this year. I do expect them to increase spending before the election in thinking it’ll salvage their election prospects in November.
@thebronze (#16) –
I truly hope it doesn’t come to some sort of armed conflict on the streets. It can really go downhill very fast if it reaches the point. AQ will be definitely pulling for that to happen, may be even help out.
Scott, you have to know that I’ve been warning in both comments and my posts about a fake “housing bubble” to sustain Obama “legacy” short term. Or, what the economists call kicking the can down the road. So you know I have no short term (meaning 2-5 or 6 years) rosy outlooks. Real estate makes the economic wheel go round, as therein lies most of the “piggy bank” of individual or small business wealth and collateral.
No more… and in fact the average individual piggy bank is looking Auschwitz anorexic.
I’ve also read other economists that say it’s virtually impossible for us to dig ourselves out of our currently obligated debt (forget what *hasn’t* passed the bozos hiding out in the dark of night in the WH backrooms…) and still maintain our economic superpower position in the world. Personally, I can’t fathom that far ahead, nor the zeros in interest it involves. But I do give those cautions some weight and credence in potential fact and outcomes.
But our economic crash in the world is subject to the US economy tanking while others are improving. Bad economic news all around for most nations is I don’t see any of those countries that headed down the high consumer debt to GDP road that are in any better position than we are. They are just faster to see the folly of the “spend to get us out of debt” policies. So I’ll leave the world gloom’n’doom forecasts outside of my personal crystal ball.
I can, however, see potential light at the end of the road *if*:
1: Congressional, and local government at every level, spending is stopped – and in some cases, reversed, on bad spending/policy decisions i.e.
a: ARRA, 2009 Omnibus, projected budgets,
b: health care “remaking” dumped and genuine “reform”/reducing the costs of drugs and services without adding a govt middle man, are accomplished,
c: and the EPA keeps it’s mitts off cap and trade regulations, bypassing Congress).
It’s a tough road uphill even without adding a penny spending more, and it’s more certainly not the time to pile on with more spending of any kind.
2: Deep cuts need to be made….at all levels of goverment, only the core of government services should be preserved, and welfare/social spending needs to be cut. Individual states need to decide how they will handle illegal immigrats putting the demand on these services. They can either keep absorbing the cost for treatment at their state denizens’ risk, or they can spend less money by deporting them back for services in their own country after their initial ailment is stabilized.
For needed social/welfares services lost, tax credits and incentives for private start ups to replace those services need to be implemented. This will be the beginning of many a private enterprise, as well as increase non-profits that subsist on local contributions (not federal subsidies). This brings charity back to the local/community levels, where it belongs.
Also what needs to be cut is the US funding of corrupt UN and int’l demands.
3: Govt attempts to reinflate the housing bubble are stopped NOW, and we take our lumps by letting home prices deflate as they should. Banks will take the hit, as they should. (yes… stocks and wall street will be unhappy losing the taxpayer safety net they’ve been enjoying their gains on, but they will have a solid base to build on once hitting bottom) After a few years, homes will again fit into the income to affordable category, and the free market of banking will weed out the risk takers, and spare the responsible ones.
4: Congress is filled with representatives who hold to the heart of the economic 101 adage: meaning you don’t spend more than you take in for anticipated revenue. And that the income revenue is revised down to a realistic level, and not based on past projections during different times.
You mentioned that consumer spending in the past always helped out. But this one is different. As I said in my “Perfect Storm” post, our biggest downfall was the overinflation of property values, that prohibited any sane recovery. In the past, home value equities were still somewhat preserved in contrast. Now, there is nothing to tap into for consumer spending save home values… (of which all remain, or will go toxic in the coming 24-48 months)…; or increasing personal income (you have to be a Congressional member to get a raise, since you vote it in yourself….).
That means neither exist except in billy bob’s mind, because no overall analysis of all contributing factors point to anything save a banking and Wall Street boom until the feds pull out the taxpayer money rug from underneath them
And I was sorely disappointed in the Dec unemployment numbers. When you see a December huge increase in job loss during seasonal times when even temporary jobs increase, it’s uglier than even I anticipated. As I pointed out to billy bob, when he was glowing about “adding” 4000 jobs in Nov, December damn sight better be more jobs added because of the usual hiring season. The numbers actually just confirm my general fears that employers are learning to function with minimal profit under skeleton crews, and have no intention of hiring prior to extending average hours from 33 to 40 and into overtime, and temps beyond that, until consumer demand warrants more jobs.
Speaking of billy bob… expecting his “you cons and your glass half empty” accusations in about 3……2………..1
@Mata (#18) –
The federal rule-making process is very tempting for an administration and Congress such as the ones we have now. Since the Federal Register is not generally read (or glanced at) by the public, many rules take effect with little or no comment. What cannot be enacted legislatively is done through this process.
Earlier this year, folding knives was added to the rules covering the federal ban on switchblades. The rule did not distinguish between a pen knife, a larger pocket knife, or any other foldable knife a sportsman, for example, would have in their possession. The addition of this rule on folding knives was to prevent the importation of these kind of knives, notably from China (where most folding knives are manufactured). States and local jurisdictions usually piggy-back their own regulations on the federal statute. As a consequence, folding knifes, from pen knife to switchblade is now banned under federal regulation.
While the “HC reform” bill is being written between Reid and Pelosi, whatever is not included in that legislation may become part of the “reform” through the rule-making process.
Like most things done by the feds, there’s an economic effect.
DR, you are certainly correct they do tons of crap via the Federal Register (witness Clinton/Rubin’s CRA regulation change in late 1995…). I did remember reading about the multi-tool customs ban, but thought that was only a customs/US border thing. You trying to tell me that Leatherman’s are illegal to manufacture and sell in the US as well?
I don’t see the health care bill as anything but a template for form a gazillion federal agencies and departments with as of yet unspecified rules and regs. So in essence, the entire thing is a “rule-making” process, and bad juju. You are 100% correct.
Stop the current health refrom bill as inadaquate. Kill Cap and Trade. Make Broad spending cuts. Tax relief to small business. Then hiring could start again.
A few weeks ago, Georgio Papandreou, new Prime Minister of Greece and PASOK(Socialist) gave an interesting speech mostly describing what he was planning to do with the Greek economic chaos. My surprise came when he began to say that he was going to cut spending and that each ministry was going to give him a budget with a 10% cut each year for the next four years. A European Socialist asking for budget cut and fiscal conservative policies ?
So, two socialist leaders cannot be correct at the same time. Is Obama the right Socialist insisting to spend and to increase the debt as a way out of this depression or is Papandreou the right Socialist, with the backing of the EU, to want to cut spending and to apply fiscal conservative policies? Who is wrong and who is right?
Eventhough WallStreet now belongs to Soros, Buffet and Gates and unemployment is not important to communists because the desire by workers to fulfill work must be limited(Classical Liberal economics) As an optimist, I want to see that the Capitalist free market will catapult an economic recovery in 2010 with the election of conservatives leaders to office.
To be honest…who knows? there “is” more money floating around, but its not translating into more employment. Employers are “squeezing” their employees to do more work…with expanded sales…to 1) make up for lost year, and 2) to hedge bets against this year.
That means…unemployment is going to continue to be around 10% for a while (and we all know that figure is not remotely accurate either). If you “have” a job….hang on to it…and you’ll ride out 2010.
If you don’t..the chances of getting hired are remote. They are all hedging bets in this way.
As far as health insurance goes….just exactly “what” would any health ins exec in their right mind have against having millions of people being “forced” by gov to buy their product??? It’s a windfall for them (ie., forced Gov compliance with buying health care). That’s considering that most health carriers have exclusive coverage agreements already with many states. They are going to make a fortune off Obama care!! (ie…those “evil” insurance companies lobbying to “stop” oboma care). It’s not true.
I’m no genius, I have no degrees, BUT, I’ve been wandering all over this internet thing for the past 2 years. I say that we’re on the knee of a slide down to something over 13% , in government released counting. It’s going to be called THE OBAMA DEPRESSION. People have been tightening their belts and and thinking, I can ride this out , I did it before, NO BIGGIE, but they are starting to look around and think, ” O CRAP , THIS TIME IT’S GOING TO HURT” . People are just now starting to realize, those that haven’t been much affected yet, “THIS IS GOING TO LAST YEARS”, so far this was being regarded as a SPORT. Major local and state layoffs are a few weeks away, they are going to snowball, CONFIDENCE is going to be gone. That’s what I see . Meanwhile ,I see O’BIDEN retires and Hillary steps in as VP, the event in Nashville goes off really well, a surprising number of major REPUBLICAN donors show up there , AND THEY LOVE PALIN IN A BIG WAY. That last part is just spitballing, I just give that better than even odds.
Scott,
My view of the economy in 2010 is antidotal, and really based upon my experiences over the last year or so.
Unemployment will increase in 2010, and I don’t see it getting better in the near future.
The stock market has had a bump, but it is going down again very soon.
Having been unemployed for 13 months, the only job opportunities I have seen are in Washington DC directly related to government work. Job opportunities outside of DC are very limited and there are so many applicants, well, you have to be lucky as hell to even get any response from your resume. Small business owners I have talked to are very quietly scared to death. Uncertainty over this coming years revenues, potentially massive increases in taxes, and the healthcare situation has them sitting on their hands and just praying that they survive. Hiring new employees is a major risk, and they are not taking risks.
Doing a lot of wondering around between NC and MD, there are a lot of empty store fronts. Companies are closing locations that are marginal to reduce overhead in expectation of reduced profits in the coming months.
Logistics companies, ya’ know, those 18 wheelers out there on the highway, are scrimping pennies because they don’t have enough loads to keep afloat. I have three different sources in the trucking industry, and all three are saying that they are surprised that more companies haven’t gone under like Arrow did just before Christmas.
Between Local, State, and Federal deficits, and the government’s refusal to reduce spending. States “temporarily” increasing sales, gasoline, property, and income taxes. The Feds not renewing tax cuts and planning massive increases in taxes. Fear in small business owners. Well…
I’m preparing for the worst. There is a chance that “the worst” won’t happen. But too many people that I know and talk with are like me, expecting the worst, and hoping for the best.
That hope thing isn’t working out too well for us…..
@Mata (#22) –
Whether the folding knife provision to the federal switchblade rule applies to Leathermans, made and sold in the USA, that I don’t know. The way I understood, and how the new provision was explained by David Kopel of the Independence Institute, was that the rule is broad enough that it could be applied to USA-made knives. Kopel’s advice: “If it folds, leave it at home.”
DR,
A point of clarification: Folding knives are NOT banned by the Fed’s.
Customs tried, but they didn’t get their way.
But your point is well taken.
@thebronze (#26) –
Thanks for the update/clarification.
If we don’t change course, and soon, I’m convinced the American dollar will become worthless. Mata great post; couldn’t agree more with all that you wrote.
One of our great hold outs for hope is if economist Peter Schiff can win the Republican senate seat out of CT. Schiff already has made it known that he’s going for the “one term; no BS, stop the spending.”
I’ve been following Schiff for years, and one of the few I’d trust to manage my money. For those who aren’t familiar with him, he was one of the lone rangers who predicted the mess we are now in. You tube has a great collection of his videos, proving how on target he was when the rest were laughing (and spending).
Schiff would truly be a breath of fresh air in Washington, and the last man standing, IMO, to sell out to anyone. He loves America, understands economics, and most of all, knows what we need to do, as painful as it will be, to get back on track.
Here’s a recent video, feel free to embed it Scott.
[Happy to do it for you, pdill… I like Schiff too. Mata]
In 2010:
Brown will win, but not be seated, causing riots.
The Dems will attempt give 25million (legal and illegal) immigrants amnesty.
Commercial real estate crashes.
At least 750 banks will go under. (Laws were just put in place last month by Prez-Decree to prohibit the closing/removal/transfers of funds if an “emergency” comes up.)
Because of the cold, (and idiot-liberal policies), energy companies will not have enough supplies to keep people warm. 10’s of thousands will die in Jan and Feb in Europe/Asia.
Foodstuffs at the present have only a 2-month cushion, the cold will eat this up, and starvation will increase exponentially in the world, and prices will jump for those who can buy food, because we grow so much of it for fuel.
Oil prices will triple because of the cold, war, the sinking dollar, and inflation.
Iran and Israel will go to war, with a world-war very likely. Russia will take back several of the old Soviet states by force. NATO will do nothing to stop them, because they need the fuel Russia supplies to Europe.
America will renege on it’s debt to China, China will take the side of Iran in the war, and will take over Taiwan. America will do nothing about it.
Real unemployment will go over 30% this year.
A “National Emergency” will be called, Martial law invoked, and elections “delayed”. (This is why the Dems now seem so blasé about losing so many seats next Nov.) Riots and death ensue, several politicians will be killed, along with hundreds of civilians. The military will not assist the government, and many police will refuse orders.
A 10+ year Great-Depression starts, with much worse ramifications than the first one, including a possible civil war within 3 years.
The fact that I now have all of my holdings in gold/silver coin will not make me feel good at all, no matter how many millions it grows into. It all will have been removed from institutions this week, and hidden. I have 6 months of food stashed, enough camping gear to supply a large squad, a good 4X4 truck, horses, and more ammo than I could ever need. (secondary currency)
Our family-members have pre-positioned our supplies/gear at my sisters place in the foothills of the Sierra’s, and we are ready for 30 or so of us to live/survive together indefinitely.
-Every night, I pray I’ve over-reacted, and that I will be more wrong than I’ve ever been about anything in my life.
Patvan,
I do agree with you about Taiwan. I am sure that it was already discounted on the loans that we got. The other countries to go, I am afraid, are Israel and Greece. Why? I know that many Israelis are ready to fight and die for the homeland but the support from the American Jews have diminished so much with the Obama Administration and many liberal Jewish groups in America are more supportive of Marxism than to save Israel. Even the Europeans have alredy divided Jerusalem. Greece will be invaded by Turkey and nobody is going to do anything just like when the Turks invaded Cyprus. Erdogan even mentioned of his intentions to re-live the Ottoman Empire.
With all these international crisis and our economy being administered by incompetent communists, how can America possibly avoid unpopular discontent due to the bad economy. Martial Law could be invoked and thus no elections will take place in 2012.
Again, there is a lot of talk and because of that, maybe none of these predictions will ever take place and Americans will be able to have a better 2010.
I work for many formerly wealthy people, a few days ago I worked for a lady who used to donate 10 to the University for a new building and bought horses that cost between a half million and over a million; those days are over, now she must sell her house and farm to survive.
Although this might seem insignificant, this type of person fueled a certain dimension of the economy. That part of the economy is now dead and will never be there again, despite what propaganda the moron in the White House and his ‘yes Obama, sir’ people tell us.
The horse industry, once a 60 billion dolaar a year business has early folded. That affects many spin-off industries and jobs.
I believe this thing has bottomed out and we are destined to enter into a depression: actually, I think we are in the initial stages of a great epression
My parents grew up on turnips and moose: I like moose and turnips, I will enjoy my life living on moose and elk. I think in a few ears a man who knows how to tend a garden, milk a cow, raise a few pigs, and kill a moose and an elk every year will live like a king.
And the whole world can listen to Obama’s promises about the Big Rock Candy Mountain, but I won’t.
@URI
I can assure you, Israel will survive…even if it means killing everyone else. They are dramatically more prepared then most know, even among the average Israeli.
G-d hear you Patvann! You are a good friend.
Patvann,
Get a hold of me, I may need to join your band. Wherever you’ll be, it isn’t that far from Sacto.
And I’ll bring all my own guns/ammo and most of my own food.
@The Bronze
Now why would you think I’d want an old 0331/cop hangin out with me and my family? 😉
I’ll be in touch.
LOL! I could take the shed!
The 0331 Marines take point, and live off dirt. Because they like it that way. (LOL!!)
Oh no sir. We also have several thousand linear feet of pre-cut lumber, (and growing more) a pressurized well, 5000gal-cap fuel tank, generators, RV’s, and an established growing area, along with rabbits, sheep, goats, chickens, 2 horses, and 3 cows. (I could go on.)
We have trucks, cranes, a wood-mill, a metal-shop, a kiln, and the people to use them. We have nurses, medics, engineers, mechanics, welders, vets, warriors, hunters, (and killers). All we really need is my man Skook to help us in proper skinning, and meat-preservation, and to help our vet. (Along with stories, and the proper education of the youngins.)
You will build your damn house, and pull your weight. 🙂 The acreage is enough for all of us.
As a man familiar with the mid-section of this state, I’m also sure you’ll know how to get to Sutter Creek. After that, I’ll get you to the site.
We are planning to be ready to support 50 people in 200 acres of defendable and self-sufficient land.