Some Things To Ponder On The Financial Crisis

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Something to ponder in this email from a bank president sent to The Corner:

I can only offer the perspective of someone who manages money for a living, rather than someone who follows politics closely.

The failure of the House to pass the bill – combined with the resulting bickering – will likely lead to a substantial market sell-off. We’re seeing part of that occur right now, but we may well see much worse over the coming days as the inevitable sell-off hits overseas markets, followed up by another collapse at home as forced selling really kicks in and many institutional investors are required to liquidate their leveraged positions. While it would be nice if all this was confined to a few select Wall Street bad apples, the reality is ordinary people will be hurt very badly as their investments deteriorate and the economic environment turns even more negative. Unemployment will likely spike sharply from here, and the lack of available credit will impair many small businesses that rely on credit lines to finance their operations.

How any of this could possibly be construed as a positive for either McCain or the Republican Party is beyond me (and I say this as a life-long Republican)? In fact, it would seem much more likely to me that the House Republicans just handed the election to Obama on a silver platter. Blaming the vote on Pelosi’s antagonistic remarks seems especially dumb, and I expect to see Barney Frank-type comments all over the MSM tonight and throughout the week.

No doubt this was a lousy bill – everyone agrees on that. But the consequences of not passing it, or something like it, are going to be far reaching. Clinging to the “small government” mantra as things collapse around us will probably not resonate well with most voters in November.

Even worse:

A number of Republican House members and staff, along with others who are plugged in, are telling me that Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats will come back with a new bill that includes all the left-wing stuff that was scrubbed from the bill that was defeated today in the House.

As this scenario goes, the House Democrats need 218 votes, and they have to pick up a number of black and Hispanic House members who jumped ship because the Wall Street provisions, in their view, were too benign. So things like the bankruptcy judges setting mortgage terms and rates, the ACORN slush-fund spending, the union proxy for corporate boards, stricter limits on executive compensation, and much larger equity ownership of selling banks through warrants will all find itself back in the new bill. Of course, this scenario will lose more Republican votes. But insiders tell me President Bush will take Secretary Paulson’s advice and sign that kind of legislation.

Personally, if this scenario plays out, I would probably withdraw my support for the rescue mission and switch to plan B, which would center on the FDIC and its bank-recapitalization powers. The bank-ownership issue, in particular, could lead to heavy nationalization of America’s financial system with a three-house Democratic sweep in November.

I’m not forecasting, because I don’t know the next bill’s content. And while McCain’s polls are heading south, he could still win. But a three-house Dem sweep to implement some off the very onerous provisions being talked about could set up the end of the U.S. financial system as we know it.

In the end this economic crisis could very well give Obama the Presidency because the average joe would believe its the fault of the current party inhabiting the White House. They would be utterly and completely wrong, but since when did that matter in politics?

And just imagine how bad this economy will become when Jimmy Carter II gets in….

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The problem here is that the WH, the DNC and the media are presenting this bail out as a “it’s this, or nothing” solution. That is not true.

And until Congress gets serious about speaking with other economists, they are being irresponsible. The US voter should hold them all responsible for their inflexibility, and lack of research on such a serious problem. I’d just love a massive recall movement.