So much for the 50 State Strategy, announced just one week ago. The Obama camp spins this as outlining several different paths to victory, but it sure looks like they are already on Plan B.
In a private pitch late last week to donors and former supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe outlined several alternatives to reaching the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House that runs counter to the conventional wisdom of recent elections.
At a fundraiser held at a Washington brewery Friday, Plouffe told a largely young crowd that the electoral map would be fundamentally different from the one in 2004. Wins in Ohio and Florida would guarantee Obama the presidency if he holds onto the states won by Democrat John Kerry, Plouffe said, but those two battlegrounds aren’t required for victory.
Florida, which has 27 electoral votes this year, gave the presidency to George W. Bush in the disputed election of 2000. Ohio, with its 20 electoral votes, ensured Bush of re-election in 2004 in his race against Kerry. Neither state was hospitable to Obama this year. Clinton handily won in Ohio and she prevailed in Florida although the national party had punished the state and the candidates didn’t campaign there.
Have the bitter clingers in Ohio and the Israel-loving Jews in Florida found something to dislike about Obama?
But George W. Bush won Florida and Ohio in 2000 and in 2004, so Obama starts by looking at the states Kerry won in 2004 and looks for pick-ups. But Obama’s guys see trouble even with those states, with McCain looking tough to beat in three of them.
The presumed Democratic nominee’s electoral math counts on holding onto the states Kerry won, among them Michigan (17 electoral votes), where Obama campaigns on Monday and Tuesday. Plouffe said most of the Kerry states should be reliable for Obama, but three currently look relatively competitive with Republican rival John McCain — Pennsylvania, Michigan and particularly New Hampshire.
Plouffe’s assessment isn’t exactly oozing confidence. Most Kerry states should be reliable? Sounds like they are trying to make it back to Kerry’s states and they are having trouble with the math.
So they will have to go after the Leaning-Republican states.
Plouffe and his aides are weighing where to contest, and where chances are too slim to marshal a large effort. A win in Virginia (13 electoral votes) or Georgia (15 votes) could give Obama a shot if he, like Kerry, loses Ohio or Florida.
Plouffe also has been touting Obama’s appeal in once Republican-leaning states where Democrats have made gains in recent gubernatorial and congressional races, such as Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Montana, Alaska and North Dakota.
Even if Obama were to win Virginia’s 13 electoral votes, a feat not achieved by a Democrat since 1964, if he loses Pennsylvania (21), they still under the gun. Add to McCain’s column Michigan (17) and New Hampshire (4), and Obama is in deep trouble.
One could argue Obama is lowering expectations, but frankly Plouffe is conceding that Obama may be the underdog in this Year of the Democrat.