Bombing Iran in August? Feinstein/Lugar briefed?? [Reader Post]

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Truly a bizarre article in yesterday’s Asia Times. Again the usual headline catches my eye – “Bush ‘plans Iran air strike by August’.

But this article provides startling details… rather like predicting rain drops to the minute, journalist, Muhammad Cohen says to watch for a NYTs op-ed in the next few days by Senators Feinstein and Lugar, protesting the proposed plan.

Even more startling… if it does happen to be factual… is the amount of detail laid out to the awaiting targets. Like Saddam’s warning months in advance, again the target has ample time to move the palace patio furniture, so to speak.

The source, a retired US career diplomat and former assistant secretary of state still active in the foreign affairs community, speaking anonymously, said last week that the US plans an air strike against the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The air strike would target the headquarters of the IRGC’s elite Quds force. With an estimated strength of up to 90,000 fighters, the Quds’ stated mission is to spread Iran’s revolution of 1979 throughout the region.

Targets could include IRGC garrisons in southern and southwestern Iran, near the border with Iraq. US officials have repeatedly claimed Iran is aiding Iraqi insurgents.

Cohen points to the Senate’s majority vote resolution to declare the IRGC a terrorist organization as a precursor to the military action – used as part of defense of Iraq and the Quds Forces persistent interference.

One thing is for sure. If this has any fact to it, the NYTs should be running an article quite soon. If they don’t, August isn’t that far away to see the proof in the pudding.

I’ve long held this is a DNC pipedream. Short of this being some sort of a power play to force int’l action in the wake of the IAEA’s unusually stern report this week, – ala good cop/bad cop – I still would find this highly surprising. With the int’l chess pieces of power on the political ME board morphing daily, it is a risky move indeed.

I guess we’ll find out if my crystal ball is not only dusty, but made of cheap plexiglass.

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It doesn’t have to be a massive Shock & Awe bombing campaign. All the US needs to do in order to get Iran to the negotiating table is to help create an “accident” at their gasoline refineries and/or their nuclear facilities. That’s it. It’s the antithesis of a major bombing campaign and is the pinnacle of pinpoint strategic, surgical operations. Just my armchair generalin’ again though. We’ll see what happens. I wouldn’t be surprised though. Pretty sure that with or without a newspaper report, the Iranians won’t be surprised either. Sat pics of their Natanz facility show a brigade of troops surrounding it and 2 rings of impressive, new, fresh from Russia air defenses. The facility was also built deep underground, under dozens of feet of steel reinforced concrete. These features are not the norm for a peaceful nuclear facility (as is the lack of a power grid upgrade), but are more indicative of an expectation for air attack. Hence the words AIR DEFENSE.

Understandable about not a “shock and awe”, Scott. We’ve been doing air strikes on Iranian convoys in and on Iranian soil in the Basra area for some time, without repercussions.

However taking out Qud headquarters? That’s a bit more major than the sorties on smaller militant operations mentioned above. It’s the response from Iran on a direct assault on his Revolutionary Guard that is risky. If you’ll remember, Ahmadinejad addressed this concept just last month.

Ahmadinejad said all the branches of the armed forces would react forcefully in response to any attack against Iran’s soil and boasted that no-one would dare to launch a strike on the country.

“The army, the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij (militia) will resist with force and coordination and respond strongly to the slightest aggression.”

I suspect the UN/int’l community would back Iran in their indignation at the “intrusion”.

According to another Asia Times article yesterday, discussing progress of the Iraqi-US relations in the coming future, the US has established a base near the Iranian border.

The explicitly aggressive tone of the Bush-Maliki agreement on protecting Iraq against foreign intervention has set off alarms in Washington that the administration may seek to use it as a cover to attack Iran, which has been repeatedly accused by US civilian and military officials of destabilizing Iraq.

In an unexpected move that could further increase tensions, the US military has established a station near the Iranian border without the consent of Iraqi authorities, and which sparked Iranian protests, Iran’s English-language Press TV reported in late April.

Just where did the ‘patio furniture’ wind up anyway?

Ebay?

Arthur, some of Saddam’s “patio furniture” (i.e. proscribed missiles) ended up in a Netherlands junkyard, per the UN MOVIC quarterly report in May 2003.

Per Georges Sada’s book, “Saddam’s Secrets”, UNMOVIC’s Demetrius Perricos says that thousands of tons of bio warheads had been shipped out to several other countries in the Middle East, along with nuclear reaactor vessels and fermenters. Field intelligence documented that Syria’s Baath Party were involved.

So take your pick where da “patio furniture” went. They had ample time with prewarnings to pick the locations. But Syria appears to be the biggest beneficiary.

Sada’s brother, BTW, is Syria’s President Bashar all-Assad. He’s been trying to convince him for years to come clean. I’m holding my breath… NOT.

Iran is too valuable to China for oil. Things could get really messy if China doesn’t put up with an attack on Iran. Iran is probably Russia’s best customer so Russia may not stand an attack on Iran either. Aggressive containment (like shooting anything that leaves the Iran boarder) might be more effective from a political standpoint.

As the old saying goes; “I’d fly 10,000 miles to smoke a camel”.

Bombs away!

If this information is correct whoever leaks/ed it should be summarily shot as a traitor. This has to be classified and letting the enemy/target in on the secrect is unfathomable.