Mohammed at Iraq The Model has an important post up today updating the events in Iraq:
Today we witnessed the first public call from inside the UIA for Jafari to step down.
Qassim Dawood from the independent bloc inside the UIA that has some 20 members urged Mr. Jafari to withdraw his nomination saying that “many of us in the UIA see that we must choose a prime minister for the country and not a prime minister for the UIA?”
This call (which I expect will be followed by similar ones in the near future) shows a growing awareness among some politicians of the critical situation and dangers imposed by the hardliners.
The chances to see a solution are fluctuating up and down reflecting the daily map of events and the intra and inter partisan disputes and right now I see that chances split 50-50 between solution and a confrontation.
The reasonable politicians within the parties know very well that there will be no future for them or for the country if a balanced government is not formed soon in Baghdad but the hardliner clerics in these parties have a different vision based on the dream of building a religious state or dying doing so. Of course this sounds insane for the guys in suits but for the turbans this represents the choice of the holy ancestors; either victory or death. They do not care about this life and they seek to satisfy God thinking that this is the only right path as they conclude from their confused reading of a confused history.
[…]I think the coming days will show a stiffer attitude on the end of the religious hardliners and this includes both Sunni and Shia and we will also be hearing more tense and inflammatory statements that will focus more on rejecting the American presence, not only in the form of the calls to deport or replace the ambassador like the ones we heard during Friday prayers but I’m afraid some clerics are preparing to declare Jihad as the American presence represent the major obstacle facing their dreams of a religious state.
Such declaration will no doubt find support from regional powers that are interested in seeing Iraq and America fail especially that America’s failure in presenting a good example in Iraq will make America think a thousand time before trying to repeat the experiment anywhere else in the region.
[…]Clerics are gathering and charging their followers with hatred to prepare them for a war; hatred towards anything that does not belong to their old school and this may also include provoking these followers against moderate politicians who will be denounced as cowards and betrayers of the faith.Naturally most politicians do not want this land to be their grave but it won’t be easy for them to resist the pressure or stay away from the fire. I really think that clerics are leading us to a real disaster and it is time for Iraqis with brains and influence to put an end for this madness of the clerics. I don’t expect this to be an easy task but just as the religious succeeded in uniting themselves, the liberals must do better to overcome their differences and show more efforts to rescue their country from an imminent disaster.
I’m confident that the Iraqi’s will recognize the danger these clerics pose and will choose freedom over a theocracy.
This first step by those inside the UIA to have Jafari step down is a big step towards recognizing a Democratic government is one that compromises. Al-Qaeda is doing everything in it’s power to stop this freedom from coming to fruition, but a people who have tasted freedom will resist being put back into dictatorship. Some are willing to die to resist this:
CAMP AL QA?IM, Iraq (March 24, 2006) — They came from far and near and waited hours in long lines under a hot Iraqi sun in hopes of joining the Army. Nearly 400 Iraqi males ? some as young as 15 ? showed up for an Iraqi Army recruiting drive held at the Marines? battle position in this region along the Euphrates River in western Al Anbar Province.
Of the 400 men who showed up to enlist, 179 were accepted ? a substantial number, according to Coalition and Iraqi Army officials.
Bill Roggio puts the security situation into perspective:
Baghdad has yet again become the center of gravity for the insurgency. For three years the insurgency attempted to establish its dominance in outlying cities such as Fallujah, Mosul, Tal Afar, Ramadi, Husaybah, Haditha, Samarra, Balad, Taji, Najaf and elsewhere, and failed. Baghdad is now the center of power, the seat and symbol of legitimacy of the new Iraqi government. The all important Iraqi ministries of Interior, Defense, and Oil reside in Baghdad, as does the Coalition command headquarters and the ?International Zone?. The media is concentrated in the city as they lack the resources to operate outside the capitol, and are required to maintain a Baghdad office.
Major General Rick Lynch, the spokesman for Multinational Forces Iraq, aptly explains why the insurgency is focusing on the city, and reports on Coalition and Iraqi efforts to reduce the violence in the capitol under Operation Scales of Justice during his March 30 briefing.
Let’s talk about Baghdad — a very, very sensitive time as the Iraqis try to form this national unity government, and it’s the time where the enemy is saying, “They have vulnerability. Maybe, just maybe, I can derail the democratic process. I couldn’t do it in 2005. I couldn’t stop the January elections. I couldn’t stop them drafting or ratifying a constitution in October, and I couldn’t stop the December elections. So maybe, just maybe, during this period of time, I can inflame sectarian violence and delay the formation of a national unity government.”[…]
However, the level of violence, or more accurately the perception of the level of violence in Baghdad, is rising. The constant discovery of bodies tortured, maimed, executed and dumped on the roadside is eroding the faith of the residents of Baghdad in the government’s ability to provide for their security. Government security forces, particularly the police, are viewed with distrust in some neighborhoods. Militias are both revered and feared. This can be seen in the reporting of Iraqi bloggers Omar and Mohammed, Zayed, Ali, Hammorabi, and Riverbend (despite opinions of each blogger, they essentially paint the same picture of the situation in Baghdad). The media, being concentrated in Baghdad, reports this, and the perception is the security situation in Baghdad represents the security situation in the rest of Iraq.
This couldn’t be farther from the truth. Last evening I spoke to Gunnery Sergeant Charles Strong, from Weapons Platoon, Lima Company, 3rd Battalion, 6th Marines. His unit just returned from Iraq, and fought in some of the fiercest battles in western Anbar province over the past year. He explained the Al Qaim region is making remarkable progress, and the problems are more of the nature in getting the disparate Sunni tribes to work together. His story isn’t uncommon. Much of Iraq is going through a similar transition, or is relatively peaceful. But none of this matters as long as the insurgency focuses on Baghdad.
The Iraqi government and Coalition are making an effort to secure Baghdad, as Operation Scales of Justice demonstrates, however the question that remains is this effort good enough to get a handle on the problems with the insurgency, militias, and gang violence. The Iraqi government and Coalition need to increase security in the capitol and deal with the problems in the police force immediately before confidence in the police is completely eroded.
But none of that can happen quickly enough until a working government is installed. With the first call for Jafari to step down I think they have finally moved in a direction that will accomplish this.
This first step by those inside the UIA to have Jafari step down is a big step towards recognizing a Democratic government is one that compromises. Al-Qaeda is doing everything in it’s power to stop this freedom from coming to fruition, but a people who have tasted freedom will resist being put back into dictatorship. Some are willing to die to resist this

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