The U.N.’s chief nuclear watchdog, Mohamed El Baradei (not exactly a guy in the tank for Bush), in an interview with Al-Arabiya TV, said, quite explicitly, that Iran will be able to produce a nuclear weapon in six months to a year. Via lgf.

Muhammad Al-Baradei: If Iran wants to turn to the production of nuclear weapons, it must leave the NPT, expel the IAEA inspectors, and then it would need at least… Considering the number of centrifuges and the quantity of uranium Iran has…

Interviewer: How much time would it need?

Muhammad Al-Baradei: It would need at least six months to one year. Therefore, Iran will not be able to reach the point where we would wake up one morning to an Iran with a nuclear weapon.

Interviewer: Excuse me, I would like to clarify this for our viewers. If Iran decides today to expel the IAEA from the country, it will need six months…

Muhammad Al-Baradei: Or one year, at least…

Interviewer:… to produce [nuclear] weapons?

Muhammad Al-Baradei: It would need this period to produce a weapon, and to obtain highly-enriched uranium in sufficient quantities for a single nuclear weapon.

With such a near-term threat looming, Bill Kristol suggests that Bush, thinking a President Obama may not have the stones to take on Iran, may decide to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities before he leaves office. Via Ace.

Then John Bolton, another guy with some connections in the White House, echoes Kristol and says Israel will do the deed after the election.

Israel, however, still had a determination to prevent a nuclear Iran, he argued. The “optimal window” for strikes would be between the November 4 election and the inauguration on January 20, 2009.

“The Israelis have one eye on the calendar because of the pace at which the Iranians are proceeding both to develop their nuclear weapons capability and to do things like increase their defences by buying new Russian anti-aircraft systems and further harden the nuclear installations .

“They’re also obviously looking at the American election calendar. My judgement is they would not want to do anything before our election because there’s no telling what impact it could have on the election.”

But waiting for either Barack Obama, the Democratic candidate, or his Republican opponent John McCain to be installed in the White House could preclude military action happening for the next four years or at least delay it.

Note that the Bolton piece also references Bill Kristol’s comments and the fact that Israel is polishing the guns.

Israel carried out a major military exercise earlier this month that American officials say appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Several American officials said the Israeli exercise appeared to be an effort to develop the military’s capacity to carry out long-range strikes and to demonstrate the seriousness with which Israel views Iran’s nuclear program.

More than 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 fighters participated in the maneuvers, which were carried out over the eastern Mediterranean and over Greece during the first week of June, American officials said.

Sure seems to be some orchestrated leaking going on. My guess is that Bush would have Israel go in before the election, so that when Iran flips its lid and all hell (actual and potential) breaks loose, voters will choose the tested McCain and Obama will be sunk.

Also find Bill Dupray at The Patriot Room

From the New York Times

Iran’s alleged research into designing nuclear warheads remains a matter of serious concern and needs “substantive explanations”, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Monday.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) also said in its latest report on Iran that Tehran had 3,500 uranium enrichment centrifuges working at its Natanz underground nuclear facility, a slightly higher number than earlier this year.

The agency said it had not been given access to Iranian nuclear-related sites that it asked to see in April.

Wait a minute. The IAEA talked to Iran and asked them to let them see the sites and Iran . . . refused? But I thought talking was the stuff of Hope and Change. It must be because President Obama hasn’t actually sat down for a chat with old Mahmoud yet.

But even if Obama were the president, we’d still have a fly in the ointment. Apparently the Iranians don’t want to talk to the United Nations. Barack never told us what would happen if our enemies didn’t want to talk to us. I thought Iran, Cuba, and Venezuela were just waiting for us to talk to them, but because George Bush refused, they were sitting home pouting and waiting for The Talker to be elected in November.

The IAEA has been pressing Tehran for answers after Western intelligence alleged that Iran had covertly studied how to design atomic bombs. Iran has dismissed the intelligence as baseless, forged or irrelevant.

“Substantive explanations are required from Iran to support its statements on the alleged studies and on other information with a possible military dimension,” the agency said in its report.

“We have not got substantive answers and we could have gotten those earlier,” a senior U.N. official said. “It’s up to Iran (now).”

Now what Senator Obama?

More stuff like this by Bill Dupray at The Patriot Room