4 Mar

No, the GOP is not doomed in 2012

RCP’s Sean Trende is having none of this defeatism:

Conservative opinion maker George Will compares the GOP’s presidential fate to Barry Goldwater’s flop. Many key Republicans reportedly believe they are indeed “consigned to defeat.” Conservative blogger Erick Erickson promises that defeat if the GOP nominates Mitt Romney. Liberal analyst Ruy Teixeira predicts that Obama will retain the White House as decisively as he attained it four years ago.

RTWT for a wide-ranging explanation of what should be obvious to the doomsayers,i.e., the 2012 presidential election is far from over. I will focus of Teixera’s analysis from a different angle from Trende, because it turns out that I have already debunked most of it before it was written.

Unsurprisingly, Teixeira leads with some Emerging Democratic Majority theory, based on the results of a recent Pew poll. The most recent Quinnipiac poll still has Obama short of his demographic targets.

However, Teixeira spends most of his time with three cherry-picked election forecasting models (such models are generally developed to help explain elections, but people cannot help from forecasting with them). I have already written abouttwo of them. Political scientists have found Nate Silver’s model has a larger mean average error than all of the most well-known election forecasting models. Alan Abramowitz’s “Time For a Change” model favors Obama, in part through the power of incumbency — but his model has over-predicted the vote of the incumbent candidate by at least 1.85% in each of the last four presidential elections. The third model, from Larry Bartels, relies not only on incumbency, but also implies that that income loss in 2009 will translate into a gain of more than 7 percentage points in Obama’s expected vote margin this year. Although untested by other political scientists, Bartels himself notes this theory runs contrary to his prior argument that “voters are overwhelmingly focused on the here and now” and “must be taken with a large grain of salt,” particularly given the high ratio of parameters to data.

Indeed, this is why I prefer simpler models that Teixeira conveniently avoids. The “Bread and Peace” model from Douglas Hibbs uses only two variables (real disposable personal income per capita and military fatalities in unprovoked wars). That model’s results last month were not encouraging for Obama, even if you modify the model to give him credit as the incumbent. Since then, real disposable income has fallen.

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About Curt

Curt served in the Marine Corps for four years and has been a law enforcement officer in Los Angeles for the last 20 years.

6 Responses to No, the GOP is not doomed in 2012

  1. Ivan says: 1

    Funny, I still can’t locate a single Republican who’ll take my bet about the GOP’s inability to defeat Obama.

    Money be talkin’, and Bull$hit be walkin’.

    ReplyReply
  2. NOT SO FAST, IT’S A WIN WIN, KEEP YOUR FOCUS ON THE CANDIDATES .
    2 mouses fell in a bucket of cream, the first one gave up and drown,
    the second fought her way around and the cream turned into butter,
    she clime out to safety, and won,
    which mouse are you?

    ReplyReply
  3. Ivan says: 3

    @ilovebeeswarzone:

    NOT SO FAST, IT’S A WIN WIN, KEEP YOUR FOCUS ON THE CANDIDATES .

    So it’s your hypothesis that the GOP will win back the White House? You really believe that?

    ReplyReply
  4. IVAN
    why not,? if we want it really, if we love AMERICA as she deserve to be, and if we believe that
    AMERICA IS THE LAND OF THE GIANT BRAVES AS SHE WAS FROM HER HARD WON BEGINNING,
    yes WE must believe that there is nothing impossible for THE AMERICANS, you are an AMERICAN,
    you are on your knees unable to get up, you see only the floor, you became an insect, waiting to be step on and crushed
    now look up, get up on your feet and walk like your ANCESTORS, ON THE LAND OF THE FREE,
    YOU ARE A GIANT UNDEFEATED, YOU WILL WIN IN NOVEMBER,FOR YOUR BELOVED AMERICA,
    THAT IS AN ORDER, DIRECT FROM HER

    ReplyReply
  5. SENATOR GRAHAM,
    IT THE LIVES OF THE BRAVEST WORTH ENOUGH TO GET OUT OF AFGHANISTAN, that hate won’t go away ever
    THEY CANNOT TURN THEIR BACK ON ANY OF THEM, EVEN THE FRIENDS THEY HAVE MADE ARE THE FIRST ONE WHO WILL SHOOT THEM IN THE BACK, THEY MUST STAY ARMED AND BEHIND ALL OF THEM
    24 HOURS A DAY AND NIGHT, you know it, and must face it for the sake of preventing more deaths,
    look at the mob and see the hate in the face, don’t hide from it behind tolerance and compassion,
    focus on the troops solely, that is your job and priority. too many braves are paid the price of your war,
    they cannot win with hands tied, if you want them to stay there let them level that land where the hater assemble to shout.

    ReplyReply
  6. Nan G says: 6

    Mitt Romney Tops Conservative Blog Poll

    67 right-of-center bloggers took the poll…..

    1) If you had to pick the GOP’s 2012 presidential nominee today, which of the following candidates would you select?

    4) Ron Paul: 4.4% (3 votes)
    3) Rick Santorum: 20.6% (14 votes)
    2) Newt Gingrich: 27.9% (19 votes)
    1) Mitt Romney: 47.1% (32 votes)

    And when the pollster pitted Romney vs. Gingrich or Santorum in a 1 on 1 race, Romney also beat each of them.

    ReplyReply

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