I’m channeling the Monty; bringing you a healthy dose of DOOOOOM – one lump or two?
Global economic growth has collapsed. WTO cuts global trade growth outlook. US durable goods orders dived 13.2 percent, the largest drop since January 2009. Double dip, data suggests we ARE in recession. US student debt tops a trillion; meanwhile one in two college graduates are jobless. China hits 11th month of recession; meanwhile the Shanghai stock index has dipped below the 2000 level for the first time since 2009. Japan launches QE8 as 20-year slump drags on; has debt-to-gdp ratio of 220%. The Mafia is Italy’s number one bank with $65B Euros in liquidity. Spain’s parallel euro-free economy. Greece will default again. Feds print money then buy back the deficit. Quantitative easing did not work for the Weimar Republic (Germans couldn’t pay their debts either, so they, too, printed the money). The global currency war’s in full escalation. The honeymoon is over as markets brace for volatile times. Chaos in Greece. Spain’s having a constitutional crisis over Catalonia’s referendum on independence.
Bankers Panic of 1907. We experienced economic contraction at the turn of the century, a recession much like today. Historians dub it Bankers Panic. The graph below maps the DOW peak of 1906 and its collapse superimposed with a map of the 2007 DOW peak and its collapse. Eerily similar timelines. Almost 100 years later, we are back in the same pattern. It should be noted and is mostly my point that seven years into that recovery the Great War – WW1 – broke out. We are five years into our recovery.
The Bell Curve of DOOM. The world has a pattern of major war every 50 plus years give or take a decade (or so). Bosnia, Afgani, Iraq, Libya – skirmishes; little small peaks part of a larger long term wave ending in large kill-off events. Vietnam, WW2, WW1, Spanish American War, Boxer Rebellion, Dungan Revolt, Taiping Rebellion, Napoleonic Wars, Civil War. We’re talking conflicts with millions of casualties (outside the Boxer Reb with only a few hundred thousand deaths) in 1975, 1939, 1915, 1911, 1899, 1862, 1851, 1804, 1776. The timeline spans 1975 – 1776, that’s two centuries worth of data. Now plot those dates under a bell curve with say a standard deviation of 15years. You’ll see the distribution of most mass kill off events occurring 1 or 2 deviations from the mean. With only the period between Taiping (1851) and Napoleonic Wars (1804) being three standard deviations off the mean. It’s a classic bell.
The bell predicts 99.7% of distribution events will lie within three standard deviations of the mean. Outliers are predicted at less than a percent, occurring .30%. What I am getting at: Our current peace period is already three standard deviations from the mean. Vietnam ended in 1975. 2012. 37 years ago. Statistically the chances of the current peace period extending past this decade are not good.
Palate cleanser. Not. Iranian Minister of Defense Ahmad Vahidi recently said, “we are in the era of The Coming, this war will be a significant war.” Now I shouldn’t have to remind you of the apocalyptic cult that is current Iranian leadership and their belief in the return of the twelfth imam, Muḥammad ibn al-Ḥasan al-Mahdī. Any conflict with Iran is going to be holy war as they believe ‘the end of time great wars will take place, and the 12th imam will reappear and kill all the infidels, raising the flag of Islam in all corners of the world.’ “With having the treasure of the Holy Defense, Valayat (Guardianship of the Jurist) and martyrs, we are ready for a big war,” Vahidi warned.
Don’t undervalue these comments. It’s the first time a high-ranking Iranian military official has tied the reappearance of the last Islamic messiah to the regime being prepared to go to a war. And speaking of.
“We don’t even count them as any part of any equation for Iran. During a historical phase, they (the Israelis) represent minimal disturbances that come into the picture and are then eliminated.”
- Ahmadinejad, Iranian President 9/24/2012.