I’m channeling the Monty; bringing you a healthy dose of DOOOOOM – one lump or two?
Global economic growth has collapsed. WTO cuts global trade growth outlook. US durable goods orders dived 13.2 percent, the largest drop since January 2009. Double dip, data suggests we ARE in recession. US student debt tops a trillion; meanwhile one in two college graduates are jobless. China hits 11th month of recession; meanwhile the Shanghai stock index has dipped below the 2000 level for the first time since 2009. Japan launches QE8 as 20-year slump drags on; has debt-to-gdp ratio of 220%. The Mafia is Italy’s number one bank with $65B Euros in liquidity. Spain’s parallel euro-free economy. Greece will default again. Feds print money then buy back the deficit. Quantitative easing did not work for the Weimar Republic (Germans couldn’t pay their debts either, so they, too, printed the money). The global currency war’s in full escalation. The honeymoon is over as markets brace for volatile times. Chaos in Greece. Spain’s having a constitutional crisis over Catalonia’s referendum on independence.
Bankers Panic of 1907. We experienced economic contraction at the turn of the century, a recession much like today. Historians dub it Bankers Panic. The graph below maps the DOW peak of 1906 and its collapse superimposed with a map of the 2007 DOW peak and its collapse. Eerily similar timelines. Almost 100 years later, we are back in the same pattern. It should be noted and is mostly my point that seven years into that recovery the Great War – WW1 – broke out. We are five years into our recovery.
The Bell Curve of DOOM. The world has a pattern of major war every 50 plus years give or take a decade (or so). Bosnia, Afgani, Iraq, Libya – skirmishes; little small peaks part of a larger long term wave ending in large kill-off events. Vietnam, WW2, WW1, Spanish American War, Boxer Rebellion, Dungan Revolt, Taiping Rebellion, Napoleonic Wars, Civil War. We’re talking conflicts with millions of casualties (outside the Boxer Reb with only a few hundred thousand deaths) in 1975, 1939, 1915, 1911, 1899, 1862, 1851, 1804, 1776. The timeline spans 1975 – 1776, that’s two centuries worth of data. Now plot those dates under a bell curve with say a standard deviation of 15years. You’ll see the distribution of most mass kill off events occurring 1 or 2 deviations from the mean. With only the period between Taiping (1851) and Napoleonic Wars (1804) being three standard deviations off the mean. It’s a classic bell.
The bell predicts 99.7% of distribution events will lie within three standard deviations of the mean. Outliers are predicted at less than a percent, occurring .30%. What I am getting at: Our current peace period is already three standard deviations from the mean. Vietnam ended in 1975. 2012. 37 years ago. Statistically the chances of the current peace period extending past this decade are not good.
Palate cleanser. Not. Iranian Minister of Defense Ahmad Vahidi recently said, “we are in the era of The Coming, this war will be a significant war.” Now I shouldn’t have to remind you of the apocalyptic cult that is current Iranian leadership and their belief in the return of the twelfth imam, Muḥammad ibn al-Ḥasan al-Mahdī. Any conflict with Iran is going to be holy war as they believe ‘the end of time great wars will take place, and the 12th imam will reappear and kill all the infidels, raising the flag of Islam in all corners of the world.’ “With having the treasure of the Holy Defense, Valayat (Guardianship of the Jurist) and martyrs, we are ready for a big war,” Vahidi warned.
Don’t undervalue these comments. It’s the first time a high-ranking Iranian military official has tied the reappearance of the last Islamic messiah to the regime being prepared to go to a war. And speaking of.
“We don’t even count them as any part of any equation for Iran. During a historical phase, they (the Israelis) represent minimal disturbances that come into the picture and are then eliminated.”
- Ahmadinejad, Iranian President 9/24/2012.
Nuke them from orbit-it’s the only way to be sure…
Once again:
Nuke them from orbit, it’s the only way to be sure.
Bookdoc@
Capital idea, I like it.
Around here, here being northwest Indiana, the economy seems to be picking up. After 4 years of doom and gloom, people are finally snapping out of it. The we’re all doomed message certainly hasn’t been getting the Romney campaign much traction.
@Greg:
That’s right, just keep spending, full speed ahead………..
@Greg: So, as an Evansville dweller up until 2009 when automotive was groin kicked, I sense that you are a Mourdock supporter to ensure that Indiana’s recovery continues.
mossomo
that is very explicit, the most I have read yet,
and it tell me how much more important we need to get THE MITT ROMNEY EXPERTISE WITH PAUL RYAN INTELLIGENCE TO KNOW WHAT A BUDGET MUST CONTAIN
AND EXPERIENCES IN THIS WHITE HOUSE SOON.
OR WE ARE YES DOOM, IF WE WAIT,
WE WILL HAVE A CRASH WHICH NEED AN IRON HAND TO STAND UP AND PREVENT THE WORLD FROM SUCKING UP THE REST OF AMERICA’S TREASURES, WE ARE NOT ALERT TO IT ENOUGH TO ADD SECURITY ON THE FINANCIAL ISSUES, BECAUSE OF THE HORRIBLE SPENDING SPREE OF THIS LEADER,
ALONG WITH HIS FOLLOWERS DEMOCRATS, WHO ARE LITERALLY IRRESPONSIBLE OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF THEIR ACTIONS AGAINST AMERICA, WHERE THE MONEY IS GOING IN COUNTRIES ENEMIES OF AMERICA.
To translate what greg said:
Doom and Gloom: Stating economic facts that he doesn’t like.
Not getting traction: greg believes the polls that oversample dems or undersample Republicans.
Accusing Romney and the GOP of economic doom and gloom- Projection for what the dems actually did while Bush was president solely to get back into power.
@Marine72, #6:
Nope. I’ve voted for moderate Richard Lugar for years. As republicans have now cleverly deprived Hoosiers of that option, I’ll be voting for Joe Donnelly. If they’s stuck with Lugar they’d have had a sure winner. Now the race is a toss-up.
@Hard Right, #8:
The 4-year, 24/7 republican message of Doom and Gloom has played a very large part in depressing consumer confidence and small business owner confidence. When confidence in the economic future is lacking, consumers refrain from spending and small business owners refrain from making new start-ups or business expansions. That serves only to deepen recession and slow recovery.
The irresponsibility and excesses of a party that had control of both houses of Congress for 12 consecutive years and control of the White House for 6 of those years brought us into recession. Out of power, they’ve done absolutely nothing to improve the situation, and plenty that has made the situation worse. Indeed, bringing about the failure of the Obama administration has been their avowed goal since the day the man was elected.
What they’ve recently become defines the phrase, worse than useless.
Translate that.
What brought us into a recession is the crash of two bubbles (dot com and housing/financial and exacerbated by oil price shenanigans), plus the advancement of the demographics bringing the chickens home to roost for decades of entitlement programs that could never be sustained on a Ponzi payment scheme. That you think this could all happen in 12 years, and let off prior Congresses and POTUS, is simply pie in the sky naive, Greg.
BTW, while I’m at it… just for you, Greg, and Larry. A WaPo three Pinnochios for the claims that the Bush tax cuts caused the debt and recession.
Wanna rethink that misstatement of “12 years” of blame? Even the liberal WaPo can’t close their eyes to the past.
And greg, the lack of confidence the consumer has starts with the president and flows downward.
The average person doesn’t need the news to tell them the economy is poor. They live it every day.
@Hard Right, #13:
What positive bit of economic news has the right wing media and the GOP failed to pounce on and aggressively talk down over the past 4 years? Please remind me, because I remember no such occasion. When America needed cheerleaders to boost the national confidence, republicans were wailing like hired extras at an old time Irish funeral.
During 2008 the economy was in a nose dive, while the unemployment rate was headed for the stratosphere like an out of control rocket. Nearly 600,000 jobs were lost in the final month of Bush’s tenure alone.
Since those trends were reversed during the first year of the Obama administration, we’ve had steady economic growth and job growth. Growth may be slow, but it has been continuous. The economy is unquestionably in far better shape now than it was then.
How does any halfway intelligent person reconcile that simple, straightforward fact with the goofy republican assertion than things have only gotten worse?
GREG
it’s good enough for you,
but not for the multi thousands AMERICANS trying to find a job.
you see you democrats just think of your own selfish person, OF YOUR JOB,
and pretend to care for the poor, and pretend that the welfare checks come from your pocket,
they believe OBAMA IS GENEROUS,
BUT HE doesn’t take one dollar from his pocket to help the poor,
all the money he spend come from THE PEOPLE’S POCKETS ALWAYS,
What “positive economic news” has there been to pounce upon, Greg? Would that be the unemployment figures that are falsely portrayed as “improved” because they aren’t counting those who’ve ceased looking for jobs, retired early, or aren’t on the BLS radar any more? Would that be the economic information that the O’admin is trying to suppress? Or would that be the piled on debt and devaluation of the dollar by the Fed in exchange for lackluster and worthless GDP growth?
As a matter of fact, Greg, there’s been nothing but a pumping up of a fake picture of the US economy for 3.5 years. None of which has been, or will be, good for America’s fiscal future. So should we all be just turning a blind eye to fiscal realities, and talking about how good things are? Or trying to sound the alarm for what’s coming?
The “confidence” doesn’t have to do with “good news” over bad. It has to do with business being secure in sound fiscal and tax policy in order to make plans. That has not been provided, nor will be as long as this illiterate economic midget is in office.
Ummmm greg, Fox News is ONE OUTLET. The far left controls all the other media outlets and even the entertainment industry. Yet you want us to believe that that Fox has so utterly overwhelmed them that the “truth” (as you would pretend it to be) has been hidden from the American people? Do you ever get tired of being exposed as a liar? You make this much too easy.
“Polls that over sample Democrats” seems to be the current far right mantra. This added to the traditional “mainstream media is misrepresenting the true voting sentiment” Everything but “The Fix Is In.”
Will that be the cry of the sore losers after the final polls close Nov.6?
What a sad bunch of whiners.
Semper Fi
HOWARD STERN exposed the ignorant who will be
voting for OBAMA,
It spread to many of them who have no clue
but allowed to VOTE FOR THE FAIL PRESIDENT.
where are we going,
hope there are more smart PEOPLE who will vote for MITT ROMNEY AND PAUL RYAN.
and they will win
Too bad I’ve seen this with my own eyes rich. How about reversing your cranial-rectal inversion and look for yourself. You know, actually think.
@ilovebeeswarzone:
Michelle Obama actually asked people at one rally to go to all of their ”knucklehead” family, friends and neighbors and make them vote for Obama.
So, they’re going for the knucklehead vote.
Nan G.
YES MORE OF THEM.
BUT, what happen to your comment on the drudge teases….
did you forget to send it?
I DID RECEIVED IT ON MY OWN SITE,
BYE
EDIT; YOU ARE SUPPOSE TO COME AFTER AQUA
Hard Right Bottom line. Current polls really are meaningless. Blaming MSM is a useless excuse.
My prediction. Obama wins by picking up Ohio and Va. Popular vote close.
Bigger issue is Dems. maintaining control of Senate with close wins in Mass. and Va.
Consolation Prize Repubs. hold House with little change in composition.
Enjoy the debate.
THE WOMAN FOR OBAMA should be aware of what is best for them,
even if OBAMA speak to them, it doesn’t mean he will deliver, he has the bad habit of promissing
while he look at them in the face, he is arrogant never seen before by a PRESIDENT,
SO IF YOU ENJOY THE PRESIDENT LOOKING AT YOU, BUT DON’T TAKE IT FOR GRANTED,
HE IS FAKING EVEN HIS SMILE AT YOU.
WAKE UP WOMAN OF AMERICA, YOU SHOULD BE BETTER THAN TAKING A SMILE FOR GRANTED,
AND DON’T FORGET YOU ALL ARE BOMBARDED BY THE RHETORIC OF OTHER WOMAN SELLING YOU ANYTHING TO GET YOUR VOTE FOR OBAMA, REMEMBER THEY ARE GETTING PAID FOR IT, NOT YOU AND ME.
MITT ROMNEY WILL WIN JOIN THE BIG PARTY WE WILL HAVE,
@ilovebeeswarzone:
I asked it be deleted.
It was in the wrong place.
@ilovebeeswarzone:
Good points about Obama and his ”caring” about women.
He had a ”vote with your girl parts,” thing that has been deleted as it was so insulting.
And Obama wants in the worst way to get money to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood-led government even if our elected legislators (who hold the purse strings) oppose it.
$450,000,000 Obama wants to give these guys.
And what is the Muslim Brotherhood view of females?
That all of them 100% of them MUST be genitally mutilated!
In fact groups of Muslim Brotherhood culture police are going all around the smaller towns in Egypt forcing females to PROVE they have already been mutilated.
IF they have not been the deed is being forced on them.
The new constitution will likely make it a law that parents MUST have their daughters all mutilated by a certain age.
WHY are we giving these monsters a dime???
Nan G.
AH SHOT, IT WAS A GREAT COMMENT, DID YOU PUT IT SOMEWHERE ELSE?
I read it on my site, it still there, do you want it?
tell me how I can send it ,
Nan G
this is what he think about WOMAN in AMERICA, THAT THEY ARE INFERIOR TO MEN,
HE MAKE THEM CRAWL WITH A SMILE AND LOOKING AT THEM AS HE SPEAK,
HE IS A FRAUD, AND TO WANT TO SEND THOSE MULTI MILLIONS TAKING IT AWAY FROM AMERICANS IS MONSTROUS, AND THE FBI MUST BE MAKING A REAL HEAVY FILE ON HIM BY NOW, FOR ALL HE HAS DONE TO HURT AMERICA,
I AM LOOKING FORWARD FOR THAT TIME HE WILL BE FOUND ACCOUNTABLE, FOR SO MUCH,
THANK YOU FOR WHAT YOU SAID FOR ME
The Harbinger: the Iranian Rilel is hyperinflating
There’s four positions to take on this.
1.) Non event
2.) Sanctions will work and the Persians will backdown stopping the enrichment
3.) Sun Tzu, 2500 yrs ago, wrote the Art of War were he encouraged Emperors to buy up enemy resources to encourage hyperinflation before the onset of hostilities.
4.) Periods of hyperinflation are times nations misstep into war.
Examples:
o – Falklands
o – Weimar Republic
o – French Revolution
o – Confederate States
o – Diocletian’s Rome
I’d discard the first two. #3 alludes we are actively hyperinflating their economy before making any moves. #4 is simple history. My money is on one of the second two will hit.
mossomo
that would be good with a normal leader in IRAN TO RELY ON SANCTIONS,
as you did say one of the two ? if I read right, I’M talking about number two,
but maybe when MITT TAKE THE POWER, IT COULD BECOME POSSIBLE,
I don’t think that BEBE THINK THAT WAY,, HE IS PREPARING FOR THE WORSE
AND ON HIS OWN ALSO,
BY THE WAY, DID YOU SEE HOW THEY PULVERIZE THE FLYING OBJECTS COMING FROM THE HESBOLAHS, which might have been supply by IRAN I thought it was a very effective gadget ,
bye
to jessica,
little JESSICA, we cry,
give a sign to where the devil is hiding,
we depend on you now, you are in heaven little JESSICA, YOU CAN FLY NOW,
TELL US WHERE THE DEVIL IS, JUST A CLUE, AND WE WILL GET HIM,
EVEN ONE OF YOUR HAIR ON HIM, WILL DO,
WE CRY JESSICA, WE MUST FIND HIM, SEND A CLUE,