14 May

Will President Obama Win the Military Vote in 2012 Election?

                                       

“Ask Osama bin Laden and the 22 out of 30 top al Qaeda leaders who’ve been taken off the field, whether I engage in appeasement. Or whoever is left out there. Ask them about that.”
-President Obama firing across the bow at his GOP critics

Yesterday I linked an article regarding how President Obama is aggressively going after the military vote (a constituency that traditionally tends to vote Republican).

Reuters is reporting that if the election were held today, President Obama would indeed win the military vote by as much as 7 points:

Mack McDowell likes to spend time at the local knife and gun show “drooling over firearms,” as he puts it. Retired after 30 years in the U.S. Army, he has lined his study with books on war, framed battalion patches from his tours in Iraq and Afghanistan, a John Wayne poster, and an 1861 Springfield rifle from an ancestor who fought in the Civil War.

But when it comes to the 2012 presidential election, Master Sergeant McDowell is no hawk.

In South Carolina’s January primary, the one-time Reagan supporter voted for Ron Paul “because of his unchanging stand against overseas involvement.” In November, McDowell plans to vote for the candidate least likely to wage “knee-jerk reaction wars.”

Disaffection with the politics of shock and awe runs deep among men and women who have served in the military during the past decade of conflict. Only 32 percent think the war in Iraq ended successfully, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. And far more of them would pull out of Afghanistan than continue military operations there.

Read the rest.

Thomas Ricks:

Reuters says veterans report being tired of our wars, are angry about the foolishness of invading Iraq, and worried by the situation with Iran. One says he likes how Obama handled Libya.

On the other hand, 37 percent of vets asked said they disapprove of the way Obama has handled the presidency, vs. just 27 who approve, and everyone else up in the air. So the poll numbers leave me a bit confused.

Mitt Romney is a Republican version of John Kerry, I think — a rich politician from Massachusetts who doesn’t really know who he is but (as James Carville has put it), was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple.

A U.S. soldier cries as he watches the live televised inauguration ceremony for President Obama, in Baghdad's fortified Green Zone. Ali Al-saadi-AFP/Getty Images

This entry was posted in Barack Obama, Military, Mitt Romney, Politics, Ron Paul, Support the Troops. Bookmark the permalink. Monday, May 14th, 2012 at 4:39 pm
| 1,511 views

18 Responses to Will President Obama Win the Military Vote in 2012 Election?

  1. TSgt Ciz says: 1

    Yeah sure he would win the military vote. Because if you wont support him, he’ll have you discharge as other than honorable.

    My nephew has told my mother that he was pulled aside by Law enforcement (FBI) and grilled on his relationship with me and my mother and his feeling on the things we post on Facebook.

    So in the light of that, you tell me, how the hell can anyone claim to know what the soldiers think about Obama when they are in fear for their careers over even the things their extended family might say?

    ReplyReply
  2. another vet says: 2

    Reuters must be talking to different military personnel than I do as far as supporting Obama. As for Afghanistan, did they bother asking why? If the troops feel there is not a commitment to victory, it only stands to reason they would want to pull out. And we should if there no intent to win. As for Obama’s boasting, once again it is our military who deserves credit for those successes. He needs to quit talking like he is some sort of warrior. As wars go on, the enemy always becomes attritted, including its leadership. This war is no different. In the Civil War, generals had the highest or one of the highest mortality rates. If he wants to take all the credit, then he should take all the blame for the huge increase in American KIA since he became President. Since OBL was killed last year, we have lost over 400 KIA. That is over 20% of our total KIA for a war that has lasted over 10 years.

    http://icasualties.org/oef/ByMonth.aspx

    ReplyReply
  3. Common Sense says: 3

    I live in North San Diego County, a disabled Veteran, and my wife is a nurse at Camp Pendleton. I can assure you the majority of those who serve our country do NOT support 0-bama!!

    ReplyReply
  4. mathman says: 4

    Don’t go there.
    Military citizens are not allowed to vote.
    They might vote wrongly, you see.
    And Obama can only win re-election if He controls the voting.
    He does not want, nor need, nor desire the vote of the Military.
    They have seen his leadership first-hand, and rejected that leadership.
    So don’t go there.
    All military ballots will automatically be discarded, for specious reasons.
    After all, voting is only provided to persons able to vote multiple time in multiple districts, due to the ban on voter ID. This is the only way the Won can be re-elected.

    ReplyReply
  5. Randy says: 5

    Was that the Taliban that was polled as voting for BHO? Only the 20% liberals in the military will vote for BHO. The rest are more knowledgeable than the MSN and liberals that support Obama’s destruction of the military and military benifits.

    ReplyReply
  6. Wordsmith says: 6

    Peter Feaver:

    Part of the explanation is the way Reuters defines “veteran vote” to include not only the veteran but also “families.” Adding in the families dilutes a demographic (male) that traditionally trends Republican with demographics (youth and women) that traditionally trend Democratic.

    If adding in the family explains the gap, then there is not much of a story here. But if the Obama advantage extends to veterans and the military, that would really be something.

    In previous elections, military and veteran (narrowly defined) voters have tended to vote Republican by margins bigger than what is seen in the civilian population. Of course, Democrats have worked very hard to overcome that gap. In 2002, they hugged the more popular Republican commander-in-chief. In 2004, they nominated a Silver Star winner as their standard-bearer who traveled the country with some of his fellow Vietnam vets and made a “reporting for duty” salute as his grand entrance at the national convention. In 2006, they ran on a “support the troops, bring them home from the front” platform. And in 2008, facing a war-hero and POW survivor, they tried to out-bid Republicans on pay and benefits for the troops and their families.

    President Obama has assiduously courted the military along these same lines, and so I would not be surprised to see him outpoll his Democratic predecessors. But given other structural considerations between the two parties, I would be surprised to see him outpoll his Republican counterpart.

    For one thing, in the same Reuters poll, Republicans have a 10 point advantage over Democrats among “veterans and their families” on the question: “In your opinion, which political party better serves the needs of veterans and their families.” Republicans have a 5 point advantage over Democrats among the same group on “…which political party has a better plan, policy, or approach to the war on terror,” a 6 point advantage on “…a better plan, policy or approach to Iran,” and, for that matter, a 6 point advantage on “…the U.S. economy.” Moreover, the veterans and their families are quite hawkish — strongly opposing cuts to defense spending, tilting slightly in favor of something approximating unilateralism, and remarkably supportive of the use of force option to keep Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons (57 percent agree strongly or somewhat and only 17 percent disagree strongly or somewhat). If Obama has the advantage, it seems to derive more from a personal appeal than any across-the-board support for his platform.

    For another thing, previous surveys of active duty and former military consistently show that military personnel tend to be conservative and tend to be more Republican than comparable demographic cohorts in the civilian world. Likewise, the regular survey of the Military Times readership — which is not a representative sample of all veterans or all military, but is a useful sample of career military — consistently has shown deep skepticism about President Obama as a leader.

    For all those reasons and more, I still expect that Romney will “win” the military and veteran vote this time around.

    Having said all that, however, I am not sure it is a good thing for civil-military relations that the campaigns vie for the military and veteran vote in this fashion. I understand why they do so — it is a way of signaling that the party/candidate can be trusted on national security, and that is a legitimate thing to want to signal. But wooing the military/veteran vote can be corrosive of healthy civil-military relations. The military have a distinctive position in American society. They are trusted with exceptional coercive power and a privileged access to our country’s resources, but in exchange they are expected to be entirely subordinate to civilian authority.

    We expect the military to salute and obey, even if they are not successfully wooed. President Obama is their legitimate commander-in-chief and has earned their respect and obedience by virtue of his success in persuading the entire electorate to support him, regardless of how he fared with the military themselves. Undue effort at wooing can contribute to a politicization of the military, making it that much more difficult for any commander-in-chief to exercise the constitutional role.

    ReplyReply
  7. Theresa, MSgt (Ret), USAF says: 7

    President Obama is their legitimate commander-in-chief and has earned their respect and obedience by virtue of his success in persuading the entire electorate to support him, regardless of how he fared with the military themselves. Undue effort at wooing can contribute to a politicization of the military, making it that much more difficult for any commander-in-chief to exercise the constitutional role.

    Okay, where to start with this asinine statement. Lets begin with “has earned their respect and obedience by virtue of his success in persuading the entire electorate to support him, regardless of how he fared with the military themselves”. Really? Earned their respect? WTF. Obedience? The United States Military swears to defend and uphold the Constitution and obey LAWFUL orders. They sure as hell don’t swear obedience to the person occupying the Oval Office. And I would like to add that the current occupant did not persuade the ENTIRE electorate to support him, only the 52% who idolize based on skin color and what is in it for them personally, e.g., “Obama is going to pay my rent out of his stash”. The rest of us knew the current occupant would be the worst President ever simply because we listened to his words and watched his actions. It was as predictable as the sun rising that he drove our country into the ground with the full compliance of congress which has been ruled by Pelosi and Reid since 2006. They own it, lock, stock, and barrel.

    ReplyReply
  8. Theresa MSgt [RET], USAF
    THANK YOU FOR THAT IMPORTANT INFO,
    THE FACT THAT A NINE YEAR COMMITMENT SOLDIER WAS SENDING A PRIVATE CHAT TO HIS FRIENDS
    ENDING UP IN BEING LET OUT BY HIS MARINE COMMANDER WHICH LET HIM DOWN, FOR EXPLAINING HIS ANGER PRIVATLY, SADLY FINDING OF HAVING BEEN UNJUSTLY TREATED BY A COMMANDER WHO SHOULD HAVE REPRIMANDE HIM ONLY, BUT NOT REJECTED HIM, EVEN IF HE WAS TOLD FROM OBAMA, HE HAD RESPONSABILITY OVER HIS TROOPS LIKE A FATHER, WHICH IS HIS JOB TO BEGIN WITH PROTECTING HIS SOLDIERS,
    IS REFLECTING ON THE WHAT MANY OTHER MILITARY HAVE IN MIND ABOUT THE ELECTION

    ReplyReply
  9. FAITH7 says: 9

    I hope not!!

    @Theresa, MSgt (Ret) USAF #7 – Thank you for your on target response. You certainly are not alone in your feelings… Barry’s Presidency has been nothing more than a sham, a blunder, and a travesty to all Americans…. even the idiots who voted for him…

    I just pray the idiots [finally] had that light bulb go off…and have seen the error of their vote…not to repeat the blunder again….

    And, a Heart Felt “Thank You” for your Service and in keeping us all safe.

    ReplyReply
  10. Micheal Cooper says: 10

    I am very afraid that he may win. I spent 26 year in the US Military (1963-1988) and am a 100% service connected disabled veteran. While I knew that Obama’s elections was a history making event, I had read everything he had written and he scared me to death. After almost 4 years of him I have seen that my fears were not unfounded. I believe another 4 years of him will destroy the American I fought and bleed to protect.
    My wife and I have watched our savings and equity in our home disappear since he took office. For the first time in my life I find myself struggling to near the point of failure to just pay the bills. In 2008 I was upper middle income, today because of Obama economics I am verging on the poverty line for a family my size.
    No I would never vote for him nor would I respect any long any veteran that wants to hand of to him what I and millions of other veterans fought to keep from happening to this country during WW2, and since. Remember the Cold War the Communist were the enemy. Now they have changed their name to progressives and are destroying American.

    ReplyReply
  11. Micheal Cooper
    yes and you re one of the heroes, and yes he made your life hard to live as many others,
    hope that NOVEMBER WILL CHANGE YOUR LIFE TO WHAT YOU DESERVE BETTER,
    THANK YOU FOR JOINING US AT FLOPPING ACES,

    ReplyReply
  12. Wordsmith says: 12

    New gallup poll:

    As the nation remembers veterans who have served their country throughout the U.S. military, a new Gallup poll reveals that those same veterans overwhelmingly support Mitt Romney over President Obama in the race for the White House.

    Fifty-eight percent of veterans support the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, with just 34% holding out their support for Obama. That 24-point spread is a sharp contrast to the 48%-44% lead Obama holds over Romney among nonveteran voters, and the even 46% both receive among all registered voters.

    One major factor among the demographics of American veterans that works against the incumbent president is their gender, which weighs heavily in Romney’s favor. While Obama has consistently held advantages with women in the polls, just 2% of women are veterans, compared with 24% of all men. As one would expect, 60% of veteran men prefer Romney compared with Obama’s 32%, while Romney holds a 1-point lead among nonveteran men, 46% to 45%. Women veterans slightly support Obama over Romney, 47% to 42% which is 2 points beneath the nonveteran support for Obama among women.

    Age also plays a factor in the polling, though the shifts between older and younger veterans aren’t as significant as those between men and women. Two-thirds of veterans are age 50 or above. Though veterans under 50 still overwhelmingly support Romney by a 27-point margin, at least 60% of those above the age of 60 all support Romney, with no margin lesser than 25 points between the two candidates. The number of veterans among the total population substantially increases among older age groups, with significant majorities of men age 70 or older having served, compared with less than 20% of those younger than 50.

    The national results of the poll are based on telephone interviews conducted between April 11-May 24 among a random sample of 43,352 adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 1%. Telephone interviews conducted specifically with veterans were held during the same time frame, with a random sample of 3,327 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2%.

    Polls schmolls…

    ReplyReply
  13. Adam Montano says: 13

    @TSgt Ciz: @Micheal Cooper: Are you really that stupid to think that the economy changes so quickly that it down turned as soon as Obama stepped into office. You are doing badly because YOU are a moron that has no economical sense. If you did you’d have MADE money as I made lots of money going from Bush’s failed economy and a stock market of 8,000 for Obama’s RECOVERY and a rebound of the market to 13,610! I blame YOU for YOUR stupidity! You are the failure not Obama and it is sad to see you through away your honor attacking the President purely to save yourself the disgrace of owning your failed economic decisions.

    ReplyReply
  14. MataHarley says: 14

    Adam Montano: You are doing badly because YOU are a moron that has no economical sense. If you did you’d have MADE money as I made lots of money going from Bush’s failed economy and a stock market of 8,000 for Obama’s RECOVERY and a rebound of the market to 13,610! I blame YOU for YOUR stupidity!

    Really? Wasn’t Biden telling the nation last night that all those pensioners would be so bad off if they had the option to invest their money in the stock market instead of Social Security? And yet it has been the stock market, bolstered up and held afloat by Bernanke and Fed QE policies, that has been the only money maker during O’s term. All, of course, at the price of devaluing the dollar and increased public debt, of course.

    You toss out “stupid” pretty easily. But only the *stupid* will use the Dow as an indicator of economic recovery since it’s health is totally dependent upon taxpayer cash infused from either the Feds or the ECB. Even those with economics 101 can follow the bouncing ball, and see what preceded the market surges, followed by the market drops.

    Are you really that stupid to think that the economy changes so quickly that it down turned as soon as Obama stepped into office.

    And are you really so stupid as to believe that our unsustainable debt… that being any revenue annually barely covers the entitlements of Social Security and Medicare, let along the cost of running a mammoth central government… happened from 2001 to 2008?

    The 2008 crash was many elements coming together for a perfect storm… and the foundation for that perfect storm started back in the 1930’s with the creation of Social Security as a piggy bank for Congress to rob, followed by Medicare in the 60s. Add combinations of foolhardy regulation and deregulation, and uneducated homeowner/investors, over leveraging their homes, and the writing was on the wall. The domestic credit card debt was already soaring out of control in the 90s. People were not living on what they made, but what they could borrow. I say they learned that from Congress over the decades.

    ReplyReply
  15. Adam Montano
    you are the MORON, and a big one,
    and you profit from the taxpayers who where rip of by OBAMA,, shame on you
    what are you doing for your COUNTRY?
    NOTHING, YOU ARE THE SNAKES OF AMERICA CRAWLING TO TAKE FROM THE OTHER,
    GO HIDE YOUR MISERABLE PERSON,
    YOU ARE NOT WORTHY OF AMERICA
    YOU Adam Montano are among the creeps of AMERICA,
    AND NO, OBAMA WON’T WIN THE MILITARY VOTE,
    GET LOST CREEP,

    ReplyReply
  16. Richard Wheeler says: 16

    Bees #15 There you go being your usual charming self or are you just channeling Biden at his worst? lol
    The military looks for strong, intelligent leadership. The only time I voted Repub. for Pres was 68 because Nixon in 68 campaign said he would continue bombing of the North. From the DMZ those arc lights were comforting.
    Mata I know we’ve discussed this before but fact is if you bought the market in Jan. 2009 and sold recently you’ve made serious money. As you suggest,Biden was wrong in his analysis last night.
    Are you still planning to vote present on the 6th?

    ReplyReply
  17. Richard Wheeler
    I CAN INSULT YOU BACK WHEN YOU COME WITH AN ARROGANT SENTENCE,
    BUT I don’t appreciate an Adam Montano insulting the MILITARY,
    AND EVEN YOU AS ONE OF THEM.

    ReplyReply
  18. MataHarley says: 18

    rich: Mata I know we’ve discussed this before but fact is if you bought the market in Jan. 2009 and sold recently you’ve made serious money. As you suggest,Biden was wrong in his analysis last night.
    Are you still planning to vote present on the 6th?

    To the first, you might want to let Biden know about that big money, made in a recession, due to Bernanke’s QE policies and ECB taxpayer cash infusion. You can also add Geithner’s treasury buy ups. The market is doing well, bolstered by government money and you know that. Yet Biden was up there last night, saying how bad it would have been for anyone who had the option for investing their own cash, instead of being forced into Social Security. I had to laugh my arse off…. Apparently he never speaks with his investment representative, eh? Frankly, those who paid attention to the markets, or are even vested in pensions, 401Ks and other market investments, have had only that to hang on to during this recession.

    I wonder if Biden realizes that, at that moment, he just admitted that the stock market health was a fraud that could have made so many seniors and pre Social Security workers much better off.

    To the second question, I never vote “present”. It will either be third party, or write in.

    ReplyReply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>