5 May

The Race To Take The Senate

                                       

Now that it appears Romney will be our nominee I have little hope of taking the White House this election year.

So instead our efforts should move to taking the Senate and keeping the House to ensure that anything Obama tries to do in his continuing destruction of this country is stopped dead in its tracks.

So far we are not in bad shape. In the Senate currently there are 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans and 2 Independents (who should be counted as Democrats since they always vote with the Dem’s) so 53 to 47. 23 Democrats and 10 Republicans have their seats up this year so it’s quite possible we could take the Senate.

Real Clear Politics has the Democrats holding 46 seats, the Republicans holding 46 seats and 8 that are in play. Those being Florida, Maine, Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

Montana is looking good:

Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg holds his largest lead yet over Democratic incumbent Jon Tester in Montana’s U.S. Senate race.

A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Rehberg ahead of Tester 53% to 43%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.

So is Nevada:

Incumbent Republican Senator Dean Heller has crossed the 50% mark of support against his likeliest Democratic challenger in his bid for election to his first full term in Nevada.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Nevada finds Heller picking up 51% of the vote against Congresswoman Shelley Berkley who draws 40% support. Just two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

In Florida the Republicans are still battling to see who will go up against incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson. Right now the numbers don’t look good but once the nominee is settled we should get a better handle on that State.

I haven’t seen much polling for Maine but the last one, which is a month old, shows the Independent King leading Republican Summers 56% to 22%. The Democrat running, Matt Dunlap is only polling at 12%. No idea if King will caucus with Republicans or Democrats however. That’s an important question since it looks like a landslide.

Massachusetts shows a slight lead by the Republican Scott Brown over Elisabeth Warren but with the latest gaffe from Warren we might be seeing a larger lead opening up. The Boston Globe has Brown over Warren by 2 and the Western New England University Polling Institute has him winning by 8.

In Missouri Democrat McCaskill is tied or behind each of her Republican challengers.

Virginia is close:

Virginia has become a very purple state that currently experiences small perturbations between reddish purple and blueish purple. While this only became apparent to some as a result of the 2006 and 2008 elections, it has been in the making for ten years and has accelerated over the last five. It is now fair to say, I believe, that Virginia has become a reasonable microcosm of the nation when you consider its rural Southern demographics combined with its bastions of younger, upscale educated professionals in its northern D.C. suburbs, it’s six-figure income families in the exurbs and outer-suburbs, the large middle class region of the Tidewater area, and a healthy portion of ethnic and racial minorities. The demographic trends are, and have been for some time, in favor of all but the rural Southern component. This has turned the state very purple and threatens to turn it blueish purple to light blue unless the GOP conducts itself in a manner acceptable to the growing demographic sectors and thus focuses on core issues of upward mobility, fiscal responsibility, and competent, prudent management of the government.

All of this is currently reflected in the standings of the presidential contest and the US Senate race. Most all polling to date shows Allen and Kaine essentially tied in the Senate contest

And finally in Wisconsin there are Democrats still battling it out to find out who will challenge Republican Scott Brown. So far it looks good:

Scott Walker (R-inc): 50
Tom Barrett (D): 45

Scott Walker (R-inc): 50
Kathleen Falk (D): 43

Scott Walker (R-inc): 51
Doug La Follette (D): 40

Scott Walker (R-inc): 50
Kathleen Vinehout (D): 38

Finally InTrade has the Republicans taking the Senate at 63%.

It’s going to be close, close, close and just one more reason we need to start focusing our time and effort on getting the Republican candidates over the top.

About Curt

Curt served in the Marine Corps for four years and has been a law enforcement officer in Los Angeles for the last 20 years.
This entry was posted in Congress, Conservatism, Politics. Bookmark the permalink. Saturday, May 5th, 2012 at 12:28 pm
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28 Responses to The Race To Take The Senate

  1. Michael says: 1

    So if the sanctimonious prig Santorium or the fat toad Gringrich were the nominee, you’d feel better about the presidential race? That is nuts.

    ReplyReply
  2. Disenchanted says: 2

    Curt. Ye of so little faith.

    ReplyReply
  3. D Webb says: 3

    Help Ohio get rid of Brown. Vote for Josh Mandel.
    http://jobs.joshmandel.com/

    ReplyReply
  4. annie says: 4

    Curt why are you so negative about Romney being the nominee. I guess you do want to have another 4 years of Obama. I agree with Michael would you rather have the other 2 sore loosers that I hope that we never see again….

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  6. Bobachek says: 5

    Hopefully in Wisconsin we can get either Mark Neumann or Eric Hovde elected for Senate if the only Democrat running for the senate is Tammy Baldwin…Her appeal outside of the Madison area has to be poor…
    Mark Neumann is being supported Jim DeMints Senate Conservative Fund and Eric appears to have gained some traction in the state as well.

    The Presidential race may be a lost cause. If Mitt does not pick a very solid conservative as his running mate I will not be able to hold my nose and vote for him…
    Do I want another 4 years of Obama as President? Not at all, hell I didn’t want the first 4 years but if the Republican establishment thinks I will accept a liberal as a conservative candidate then they need to learn a very hard lesson here.
    The Republican party needs to get off its rear end and get involved in helping recruit solid conservative candidates for office in this country.

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  7. anticsrocks says: 6

    @Michael: @annie: One of the main reasons that Conservatives aren’t big on Romney is the scorched earth he left in his wake on the way to the nomination. It has helped to create bitter divisions within the Republican Party.

    With that being said, the two of you do what? Continue with the ad hominem attacks on Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum. Either one of those gentlemen would be a thousand fold better than Obama. So go ahead, just continue sowing the seeds of division and help Obama out.

    Way to go.

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  8. annie says: 7

    I live in MA and Romney was far from being a liberal. The liberals here are so nasty…..

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  9. bbartlog says: 8

    Here’s hoping that Ted Cruz beats Dewhurst in the Republican primary in Texas. The general election should be an easy win if he can manage that.

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  10. Richard Wheeler says: 9

    Curt Wouldn’t be discounting Mitt’s chances. “Deja view all over again”with race decided in Fla. and Ohio (Romney needs both).Currently statistical dead heat in both. Therefore, Rubio or Portman pick for Veep.
    Senate–Dems will struggle to get 50-50 tie. McCaskill in Mizzou must hold and Dem. Kaine over Allen in Va. to hold Marine Navy Cross recipient Webb’s seat.
    Brown should hold Mass. Tester (D.Mt.) loses.
    Longshot for Dems—Former Sen, and Navy Seal MOH recipient Kerry could hold Ben Nelson’s seat in Neb.

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  11. anticsrocks says: 10

    @Richard Wheeler: Not bad arm chair quarterbacking there, Rich. But I feel that if Romney stays on message like he has been, then Obama will be a one-termer. Polling is starting to show his favorability rating os beginning to erode with us folks in “fly-over” country.

    The latest Gallup-USA Today poll holds grim news for the White House. While 44 percent of Americans says President Obama’s time in office has been a success, 50 percent say it’s been a failure.

    The poll also finds that his favorability rating is 50 percent — presumably that’s the 50 percent that doesn’t think his presidency is a failure. That’s lower than every presidential nominee in the last five contests save for Bob Dole. And Dole lost.Source

    That is from February, and tonight on the Hannity show, it was revealed that in Michigan Obama’s favorability is even lower.

    You cannot run a campaign pitting American against American and not expect to get some blowback on it.

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  12. Richard Wheeler says: 11

    Anticsrocks Welcome back. Your disagreement is with Curt. I think Romney can win a close race decided in Ohio and Fla if he gets Portman or Rubio.
    Think it strange he’s taking credit for automotive recovery.

    Senate race looks very close.Dems best hope is 50-50. Repubs. hold House. T.P. upsets incumbant Lugar in Ind.

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  13. anticsrocks says: 12

    @Richard Wheeler: Thanks, Rich. Didja miss me? :-P

    You called Lugar right, kudos.

    I misunderstood your Senate comment; was late and I was tired.

    Dick Morris thinks that the GOP gets 60.

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  14. Richard Wheeler says: 13

    Anticsrocks Morris is out of his mind– a paid gun who goes to highest bidder. Repubs. end with 50-52 Senate seats. Should pick up 5-7 in House. Great win for T.P. in Ind.

    Keep rockin

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  15. anticsrocks says: 14

    @Richard Wheeler: He may well be a paid gun, but that doesn’t take away his knowledge, experience and intellect. After all, by all accounts he single-handedly engineered Clinton’s successful ’96 win. Under Morris’ advice, Clinton went to the center and still pacified his base.

    We’ll see who is the better prognosticator of the Senatorial outcomes, you or him.

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  16. Richard Wheeler says: 15

    Anticsrocks If Repubs. win EVERY competitive Senate race they can’t reach 60.
    With Repubs. currently controlling House and odds-on to get to 51 in Senate will 13% approval dramatically improve?—–I DOUBT IT What’s Morris’ prediction on Pres. race? E.C. #’s all that matter. Romney needs Fla and Ohio (certainly possible) to secure narrow victory.

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  17. Aye says: 16

    @Richard Wheeler:

    In which column do you place NC and WV?

    ReplyReply
  18. Richard Wheeler says: 17

    Aye In Pres race N.C. and W.V. to Romney.
    Sen. W.V. Dem. Manchin (no fan of BHO) holds.

    ReplyReply
  19. Michael Azkoul says: 18

    Do you like or dislike a candidate on principle? What is it that you believe politically, philosophically, religiously, that would lead you to vote for a one candidate or another? What are your prejudices? Why do you want the federal government to regulate your existence — yes, existence? Perhaps, people are in desperate need of help? Let them starve — no, Uncle Sam will rescue him? From where will the government get the money for the aide? Print it? From the rich, from you and me? What happens when the money runs out? What will the government do? What the citizenry?

    ReplyReply
  20. Aye says: 19

    @Richard Wheeler:

    I agree with your assessment regarding NC and WV.

    I believe that the Preezy of the United Steezy is going to have a hard up hill battle to prevail in November.

    This gay marriage stuff that happened yesterday isn’t going to help him. Politico has an article up today that says that the gay marriage stance will likely cost him seven battleground states: NC, FL, CO, NV, IA, MO, OH

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  21. Richard Wheeler says: 20

    AYE Don’t believe gay issue wiill significantly hurt him except in the South. N.C. and Mizzou already RED. Fla and Ohio will decide this. Obama holds CO. and NV. Iowa a true toss-up as are Ohio and Fla.

    ReplyReply
  22. anticsrocks says: 21

    @Richard Wheeler: Morris says it will be a landslide for Romney.

    I have my doubts, although Romney is running a much better campaign now than he ever did in the primaries.

    What I fear is that Romney might get the electoral vote with Obama getting the popular vote. That would be a nightmare scenario.

    ReplyReply
  23. Richard Wheeler says: 22

    Anticsrocks In our system electoral college is all that matters ONLY Pres in 130 years to win E.C. and lose popular vote was “W” in 2000. Probably first time many voters even learned of the E.C. Sad

    I think it will be close, Current momentum favors Romney. Debates and how they are perceived will be critical.

    ReplyReply
  24. Michael Azkoul says: 23

    Romney has not defined himself. I am not persuaded that he is a conservative; yet he may be. He may have “evolved.” In any case, he is not a socialist. Look at Obama — his 32 tsars (what Trotsky might have called “the vanguard”). Observe the number of businesses in the United States in which the federal government owns stock. Several major corporations are controlled by the current regime. Obama is committed to “redistribution of the wealth” — on the backs of the damnable rich, of course. He has encouraged the secularization of America which such things as the promotion of “same-sex marriage” or regulating the language of military chaplains or failing to defend the Judeo-Christian perspective, etc. If Obama is re-elected, the last semblance of the American religio-political tradition will be eviscerated. Lo, the shadow of the Anti-Christ.

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  25. anticsrocks says: 24

    @Richard Wheeler: Really Rich? There is an electoral college?? Gosh, I never knew that.

    /sarcasm off

    You know, you really ought to read the comments you make before you hit reply. Sometimes your condescension seems only to be matched by your ego.

    Now either you were being a condescending jerk, or you actually thought I didn’t know how our presidents are elected. Neither of those choices makes you look good.

    But I suspect that you full well knew what I was referring to, and you didn’t want to admit that your side would be the sore losers they were in 2000; just on steroids. If the Anointed One wins the popular vote, but loses the electoral vote, then the left will push like never before to eliminate the electoral college. It will make the outrage towards George W. Bush seem like bi-partisanship compared to what will happen if Obama loses in this manner.
    .
    .

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  26. Richard Wheeler says: 25

    Anticsrocks Seems you are always lookiing for a fight.I never suggested YOU didnt understand the E.C. But many did not because in 2000 we hadn’t hsd a “SPLIT DECISION” in anyone’s lifetime.
    Sorry you thought I was referring to you .I assure you that I WASN’T. Next case.
    BTW I must say your last paragraph seems to me unnecessary paranoia. Almost certainly won’t happen.

    ReplyReply
  27. anticsrocks says: 26

    @Richard Wheeler: I’m not looking for a fight, I was merely pointing out that you come across as insufferably arrogant at times. If you talk down to someone and they point it out, that means they’re looking for a fight? Cute.

    Re-read your message again, look at it from someone else’s POV other than your own.

    As for my paranoia, lol. Yeah, the MSM wouldn’t say a word about the scenario I presented. They would be FINE with Obie losing the electoral college and winning popular vote. Nope, nothing to see here, move along.

    MSLSD would get so worked up, it would register on the richter scale – and we both know that, Rich.

    ReplyReply
  28. Richard Wheeler says: 27

    Anticsrocks I wasn’t talking down to you. As I told MATA I am a proponant of KISS. A split between P.V. and E.C has happened only once in last 30 elections. Very unlikely this time. If Romney can win E.C (must win Ohio and FL.) he’ll win popular vote as well. I like E.C. but would consider each state’s being allocated proportional to popular vote. Dems did this in 2008 primary and was the reason BHO beat HRC

    What say you?

    ReplyReply

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