21 Jun

Mann’s New Hockey Stick Predicts Global Warming, er…a Ice Age, ok..maybe some Floods & THEN some Droughts…& then we’re all really doomed!

                                       

Michael Mann….the inventor of the “Hockey Stick”, otherwise known as “cooking the books,”

has released a paper in which they “prove” that the rate of sea-level rising along the Atlantic coast is greater now than at any time in the past 2,000 years. Which means doom, horror, and the 3nd coming of the cookie monster!

Ok, I kid.

No, what they are trying to prove is that there is a link between surface temperature and sea level.

How did they do this you ask?

“To reconstruct sea level, the research team used microfossils called foraminifera preserved in sediment cores from coastal salt marshes in North Carolina.”

Bahahahahahah

Whoakay then. That should prove unimpeachable.

It gets better:

“Two points in salt Marshes in North Carolina are used as the basis for the study”

Two whole points? Wow!

And then, the Coup de grâce…put the data through the same process Mr. Mann did years ago which produced the Hockey Stick. He used upside down proxy data.

It’s remarkable that in this case, there doesn’t even exist a plausible model that would agree with the statement that the sea level rise has accelerated. Note that the red curve above, coming from the models, has the same slope around the year 1000 AD as it had recently.

The flat shaft of the blue hockey stick is created by an interplay of several methods. They include both the MBH hockey stick fallacy that creates hockey sticks even out of red noise; as well as the dropping resolution of (or “diffusion in”) similar reconstructions as you try to go further into the past.

Note that the sea level hockey stick graph claims that the sea level has never deviated by more than 5 centimeters throughout the whole first millennium! Well, that’s very unlikely. The graph above shows that in the last 7,000 years, the sea level was nearly constant but you may still see that the slope is of order 50 cm, and not 5 cm, per millennium.

The above author isn’t the only one with some qualms over Mann’s findings:

They see a major problem of the new study in the fact that it is ultimately based only on the finding from the coast of North Carolina. That could be too limited for a statement regarding global developments. “This study is therefore not suitable at all to make predictions,” says Jens Schröter from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research.

Rahmstorf and his colleagues concede that local sea-level fluctuations may differ from the global average. Nevertheless, the scientists expect that their data show broadly the changes in global sea level. Schroeter, however, argues that over a period of more than 2000 years the influences of continental drift and the so-called isostatic rebound will be felt. This is a consequence of the last ice age: with the disappearance of the glaciers, the land masses were liberated of such a large load that they still perform a rocking movement. In Scotland, some areas were lifted by up to 60 centimeters during the last century, while parts of southern England and the French Channel coast sank by the same amount.

Rahmstorf and his colleagues have also included data from other world regions in their study – but they differ significantly, in parts, from the results of North America. “Only the data from North Carolina fit reasonably well to the reconstructed sea-level development,” says Schroeter. He criticized that the PIK researchers have attempted to confirm their data with an already existing model. “If you had tried to develop a graph solely on the basis of the data, it would have been difficult.”

But hey, no worries. While Mann tries to cook the books and ensures our waters rise, to drown us all, others are doing the opposite. They want us to believe all that water is going away, with the fishies too:

The oceans are in a worse state than previously suspected, according to an expert panel of scientists.

In a new report, they warn that ocean life is “at high risk of entering a phase of extinction of marine species unprecedented in human history”.

They conclude that issues such as over-fishing, pollution and climate change are acting together in ways that have not previously been recognised.

The impacts, they say, are already affecting humanity.

The panel was convened by the International Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO), and brought together experts from different disciplines, including coral reef ecologists, toxicologists, and fisheries scientists.

Oh the humanity!:

The International Panel on the State of the Ocean !!! IPSO – modest bunch – see mission statement (front page website)

http://www.stateoftheocean.org/

The International Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO) was established by scientists with the aim of saving the Earth and all life on it.

Another Press release – Gets a shocking headline – the wait for the report (so that it can be checked) so that it is forgotten about and at the end – it is too early to say, but the trends are, etc,etc,etc

Maybe the Oceans are in a shocking state, I’m just getting too cynical to care…

BBC: World’s oceans in ‘shocking’ decline – Richard Black – 20th June 2011
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-13796479

“The oceans are in a worse state than previously suspected, according to an expert panel of scientists.”

“In a new report, they warn that ocean life is “at high risk of entering a phase of extinction of marine species unprecedented in human history”.

The International Panel on the State of the Ocean !!! IPSO

This is getting beyond satire ‘panel for the State of the ocean’ but no doubt lots more UN jobs and research required, plus urgent action and control of the oceans.

“The findings are shocking,” said Alex Rogers, IPSO’s scientific director and professor of conservation biology at Oxford University.

“Its report will be formally released later this week.”

Its worse than we thought (they considered)

”…As we considered the cumulative effect of what humankind does to the oceans, the implications became far worse than we had individually realised.”

Batten down the hatches….we’re all going down!

Ok, so now this is a good time for a top 10 list. The top 10 reasons why climate model predictions always fail

exit quote:

A peer-reviewed paper published online today in the journal Geophysical Research Letters shows that drought of Western North America was considerably worse during the Medieval Warming Period than at the end of the 20th century. The paper also shows much more variation and extremes in the drought record over the past 5200 years than since the advent of industrialization and rising CO2 levels in the latter 20th century. The proxy records clearly show no correlation of drought with the claimed steady CO2 levels until ~ 1950 and subsequent steady rise.

Oh yeah….it’s settled science alright.

About Curt

Curt served in the Marine Corps for four years and has been a law enforcement officer in Los Angeles for the last 24 years.
This entry was posted in ClimateGate, Energy, Environment, Global Warming, Science. Bookmark the permalink. Tuesday, June 21st, 2011 at 8:31 pm
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12 Responses to Mann’s New Hockey Stick Predicts Global Warming, er…a Ice Age, ok..maybe some Floods & THEN some Droughts…& then we’re all really doomed!

  1. Ivan says: 1

    Mann has already been discredited for his failure to properly document his bullshit lies.

    Why people are even talking about this fraud is beyond me, but not unexpected.

    ReplyReply
  2. oil guy from Alberta says: 2

    This is going to be a fun post.

    Mann- Penn State or State pen?

    Hockey schtick. Hockey sticks cause riots. Look at Vancouver.

    Climate models? You provide the model( 36-24-36) and I’ll provide the climate.

    ReplyReply
  3. Nan G says: 3

    Sea level rise is what’s measured against the actual coast.

    That’s what tells us the impact of rising oceans.

    But

    the University of Colorado’s Sea Level Research Group decided in May to add 0.3 millimeters — or about the thickness of a fingernail — every year to its actual measurements of sea levels, sparking criticism from experts who called it an attempt to exaggerate the effects of global warming.

    Steve Nerem, the director of the widely relied-upon research center, told FoxNews.com that his group added the 0.3 millimeters per year to the actual sea level measurements because land masses, still rebounding from the ice age, are rising and increasing the amount of water that oceans can hold.

    “We have to account for the fact that the ocean basins are actually getting slightly bigger… water volume is expanding,” he said, a phenomenon they call glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA).

    No….you don’t have to.
    But climate ”scientists” would rather doctor the data than accept the fact that our oceans are not rising.
    Erosion is happening.
    Sure.
    Sea water sometimes seeps into island fresh water sources.
    Yup.
    But the oceans are not rising.

    ReplyReply
  4. Liberal1 (objectivity) says: 4

    The dust bowl in Oklahoma was also predicted by some earth scientists, but was ignored by people who had an alternative agenda for land use.

    ReplyReply
  5. retire05 says: 5

    Liberal1, WHO predicted the Oklahoma dust bowl? Did they not predict the dust bowls in Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas and Texas? Just Oklahoma?

    And who ignored it once it started? Why none other than that bastion of liberal idolatry, Franklin Roosevelt.

    ReplyReply
  6. Coldwarrior57 says: 6

    I had to have this running in the backround as I read this. :D
    Enjoy
    http://www.disclose.tv/action/viewvideo/34113/Hide_The_Decline___Climategate/

    ReplyReply
  7. Alfonso Bedoya says: 7

    @oil guy from Alberta: >>> You provide the model (36-24-36)

    Oh, my. Y’all must like your girls a bit more Robust in Alberta than us Gringoes. Thirty six-twenty four-thirty six is enough girl to make TWO models these days.

    A Canadian model would, however: 1. Be more polite than a US model, and 2. Know how to crank the snow blower unassisted.

    ReplyReply
  8. Rhumbagecko says: 8

    Wow…There are people who still doubt that climate change is real!!! Neanderthals me thinks!

    On the other hand, it is Curt who says so…After all look at all his ex-marine and LA cop experience!

    ReplyReply
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  10. Blake says: 9

    @Liberal1 (objectivity): Do you EVEN KNOW what caused the “Dust Bowls”? I mean, yes, there was a drought, but there would have been no “Dust” if there was no “harrowing” of the crop fields.
    Through trial and error we found that leaving the plowed ground in larger hunks meant that the earth wasn’t ground so fine that the wind could pick it up.
    I would like to know what the “alternative agenda” was for, concerning the dust bowl. Care to share?

    ReplyReply
  11. Blake says: 10

    @Rhumbagecko: Sarcasm doesn’t become you- you can’t pull it off-
    The truth is that Climategate, and “global warming” are farces, driven by people (like Al Gore) who have a vast financial stake in the outcome of this debate. Man bad, Nature good- what bull fewmets! I see nothing good about malaria, do you? Or typhoid, smallpox, et al- these are ALL examples of nature, and you want to go back to THAT?
    Man Good-

    ReplyReply
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