Republicans Winning The House A Foregone Conclusion?

Yesterday we had “top” Democrats glumly admitting that they are likely to lose the house:

Top Democrats are growing markedly more pessimistic about holding the House, privately conceding that the summertime economic and political recovery they were banking on will not likely materialize by Election Day.

In conversations with more than two dozen party insiders, most of whom requested anonymity to speak candidly about the state of play, Democrats in and out of Washington say they are increasingly alarmed about the economic and polling data they have seen in recent weeks.

They no longer believe the jobs and housing markets will recover — or that anything resembling the White House’s promise of a “recovery summer” is under way. They are even more concerned by indications that House Democrats once considered safe — such as Rep. Betty Sutton, who occupies an Ohio seat that President Barack Obama won with 57 percent of the vote in 2008 — are in real trouble.

In two close races, endangered Democrats are even running ads touting how they oppose their leadership.

“Democrats kept thinking: ‘We’re going to get better. We’re going to get well before the election,’” said one of Washington’s best-connected Democrats. “But as of this week, you now have people saying that Republicans are going to win the House. And now it’s starting to look like the Senate is going to be a lot closer than people thought.”

Than today you have “top” Democrat strategists singing another tune:

But the Democratic apocalypse isn’t guaranteed just yet. In fact, senior Democratic strategists say they’re not only likely to keep the House, but they believe the GOP won’t come close to gaining the 39 seats they need to take over.

That’s not to say Republicans have no chance of taking back the House. Indeed, for every argument Democrats make about their strengths, Republicans have a counterargument. But Democrats have a compelling case. Here are the four reasons Democrats shouldn’t be counted out of the majority, and Republicans shouldn’t start counting their chickens, quite yet:

The author lists money, turnout, and opposition research as the reasons they could keep the house. I don’t YET see the turnout being edged out by Democrats and Conservatives do a pretty good job of opposition research also, so does it all come down to money?

Could be.

But the economy isn’t going to get better in the next few months. In fact it will probably get worse. This will be the driving factor in the midterms and a bad economy is never a good thing for the party in power. Most especially a party that has control of everything.

So why the two different narratives in two days?

So they can be losers but still sell it like they won:

Kaus suspects it has to do with managing expectations, which is probably right. The polling for Republicans, especially on the generic ballot, is now so rosy that a “mere” 30-seat pick-up in November will inevitably be spun as a de facto national vote of confidence in Obama. For conservatives to send a message, it’s the House or bust — and even then, a net gain of seats in, say, the low 40s will be treated by our friends in the media as a mixed bag in which the GOP returned to power but “underperformed,” etc. If you want to teach them a lesson that’s narrative-proof, I think maybe only matching 1994 will do it. And that’s a tall order, even in this climate. Perhaps we should start managing expectations too, yes?

And I have to tell you this has worried me over the last few months. Poll after poll, report after report, blog after blog, they are all saying we are going to blow them outta the water.

Anytime one party starts to believe this…it’s time to worry.

Maybe it’s the pessimists in me but Allah’s advice may be prudent. Start managing those expectations. In the end, if everyone believes its a foregone conclusion we might just lose the turnout race and that would be a disaster.

Curt

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