@ MataHarley,

Unfortunately, it is also no longer surprising that most of the MSM still refuses to acknowledge that unemployment is really at 16%, … not 9%.

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@ openid.aol.com/runnswim,

What might in fact limit Democratic losses in 2010, is not a healthy economy, but is the vast majority of the approved stimulus monster that will be held back, but will be distributed when it can deliver the best outcome through patronage and through vote Buying rather than be applied to any serious stimulation of the economy.

Most of the $787 billion has not been distributed for good reason. The scare mongering worked on the hapless Congress who approved it, and its purpose is to ensure a continuation of a Democratic majority, rather than to create jobs in the general economy. The incompetence and corruption continue.

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A “new norm” for the lagging indicator, Larry? Isn’t that moving the economic historic goal posts? LOL

For you to chew on… and hopefully I can do some blogging instead of work this eve… there is no recovery with high unemployment and housing. Both indicators now are false because both are being propped up by the taxpayer. The unemployed by extended benefits (which will then drop off the statistical map when they are unemployed, but not on the benefit radar), and the banking/housing industry. I want to tell you right now… with this $8K crap, it’s chaos out there. As a matter of fact, what I’m seeing is the same ugly syndrome that lead to overvalued homes to begin with… a vast influx of buyers overbidding on foreclosed homes, driving the prices back up. Isn’t going to last… nor should it. The bubble should not be re’iflated. It was unsustainable then, and will be unsustainable in the future.

INRE the “actual numbers”…. there’s a lot of rabbits in that “hat”, Larry. There are no dependable numbers. And as almost all economists with a brain will tell you, all the historic templates are BS right now. ala recovery with unequal measures… as in bonds/stocks movement vs unemployment, dollar index and debt.

We are in unchartered territory. Ugly part is, what’s unchartered isn’t in the positive column.

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@Mata; I want to talk about unemployment as an indicator, but it will have to wait until this evening. I think that we are going to have a “new normal,” employment-wise, which is going to persist for a very long time. In the meantime, thanks for getting specific with your own forecast. Maybe, just for fun, we can lay down some actual numbers, as opposed to simply descriptors. – Larry W/HB

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Bold statements, Larry, in the face of 2010 forecasts that even the Obama admin admits… i.e. the unemployment still on the rise for another year, or no replacement of the jobs already lost. It’s such absurdity to look at the loss of jobs at 600K a month to 300K a month as “victory”. There are only so many jobs that can be lost.

Fact is, to achieve the Obama forecast, there needs to be job creations of 200K monthly… by my math, a 300K reduction in job loss is still shy 500K of job creation.

Add to that the decline of the housing market values over 2010. The resetting of 2006 ARMS, combined with the continued job losses instead of gain, do not translate to a rosy recovery in 2010.

The economic recovery is beyond Obama magic powers, however government can slow it down.

So I’ll take your “recovery strong enough by Q4 2010″… leaving elections aside (since elections aren’t a measure of the economy either, just a measure of the discontent) and raise you by this…. by 2010 we’ll have hit bottom and start to stabilize. Providing they haven’t loaded the national debt beyond recovery, and reduced the dollar to toilet paper.

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reply to #14 went to spam.

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first on the Economy, and Separately on the Stock Market.
You appear to mix the two interchangeably when discussing economic analysis

@James Raider:

Of course, they aren’t interchangeable. If I could forecast market trends, I’d have been heavily invested. I can’t and I wasn’t. But I don’t think that you can ignore the market as an indicator. At this stage in the recovery, I don’t think that many unsophisticated, individual investors are buying much. I think that the market rise has been driven by professionals who may not know the future but who are sufficiently encouraged to buy in.

So I’m not forecasting trends in equities, but I’m already on record as saying that the recovery will be strong enough by Q4 2010 to greatly limit Dem losses in the mid-terms. And I’m forecasting that the economy and the health care will both be winners for Obama, come 2012.

- Larry Weisenthal/Huntington Beach, CA

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@ openid.aol.com/runnswim,

… So please prognosticate away, … first on the Economy, and Separately on the Stock Market.

You appear to mix the two interchangeably when discussing economic analysis.

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@mata: Thoughtful comments (#12). What’s interesting about this little debate is that, unlike Global Climate Change, it won’t take decades to declare a “winner” in our little economic prognostication contest. I’ve been active on these public internet debate forums since 1995 and, if my health continues to hold, I’ll be around here long enough for one of us to crow “I told you so.”

P.S.

>>And if you spend any time on the financial news channels, you’ll find most of them shaking their head in disbelief at the market action,<<

The pundits at the financial news channels do not exactly have an unblemished record, when it comes to economic analysis and equities forecasts. It is not without good reason that economics is referred to as the dismal science, and cable medium pundits are among the dismalest of the dismal.

Where you have to give investors their due is that they are putting their money where their mouths are.

- Larry W/HB

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@mata: there WAS a F/A drumbeat about the falling Dow Jones index; but you correctly point out that not everyone was beating this particular drum. I did cite the original blogpost which started it off, in the above post.

Then perhaps you should correct your twice-repeated characterization that an article by Mike’s A constitutes an “FA drumbeat”. As I see it, it is a single rat-ta-tat by Mike’sA. And Mike’sA is not “Flopping Aces”… he’s one of several authors.

I do so wish you wouldn’t just lump everyone into one FA jelly jar merely because one author has an opinion.

However I will say the falling index was expected with the fear mongering of this admin on the economy. I will also say that the rising index is not a reflection of a recovering economy. And if you spend any time on the financial news channels, you’ll find most of them shaking their head in disbelief at the market action, as it’s foolhardy with the deliberate decline of the dollar value, the rising unemployment, and the fact that both the banking and housing markets are being subsidized by the US taxpayer. When you take away Uncle Sam’s booty, robbed from the citizens, we have another story.

But as I said… with you, most of this will take some time to show how erroneous your joy at the “end of the recession” is.

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