Larry,

I wouldn’t trust the NYTimes to report anything that is statistically valid, especially with regards to left-leaning politics. Unless they took great pains to ensure that their survey was free from bias, there’s not much value in the survey other than political propaganda. I’ve taken numerous phone surveys, and the majority were designed by someone with an ideological bent – something well within the norm of NYTimes reporting. Not only that, but as ICan… mentioned, a survey of around 1000 (1,112 to be exact) is not very trustworthy. The article states an accuracy of +/- 3 points, and that’s even suspect. Surveys of 1,000 or so respondents are generally no better than +/- 4%, and even that assumes a non-biased survey. It is statistical folly to claim that the survey shows broad support for Obama.

As a moderate and independent voter, I follow blogs that are both conservative and liberal (or progressive), and lately the common thread among most is dissatisfaction with Obama. Particularly strong is the sentiment that true progressives feel – that they have been sold a bag of goods. There’s a lot of complaint of Obama using bait-and-switch tactics, and a lot of people feel like they’ve been pushed under the bus now that they’ve served their purpose (to get Obama elected). Obama’s cabinet picks and other administration assignments have also hit a raw nerve, and even progressives are starting to talk about taking the government back. I feel that blogs give a much better indication of people’s sentiment than polls of questionable veracity, and what I’m seeing does not bode well for Obama.

I have to agree that he is doing everything he can to stay ahead of the GOP, but here again he is losing his progressive base. His recent echo chamber cheerleading squad may make him feel like he’s moving forward, but progressives are not happy with the invitee list.

Obama has a couple things going for him. One, the housing market is attempting to turn itself around as people are taking advantage of bargains. And two, he’s only been in office a month or so. If things turn around and recover substantially over the next 2 1/2 to 3 years, Obama will likely be credited with saving the economy. Otherwise, he’s going to be licking his wounds and wondering what went so terribly wrong.

Jeff V

Like or Dislike: 0  0

Gallup had Obama at 62-63% and falling. Interesting and remarkable because it is EXACTLY (per Gallup) where GWB was at this time in his presidency, but he was climbing.

Like or Dislike: 0  0

Can we just say that Harry Reid is just dumb, and move on.

Like or Dislike: 0  0

NAR (Nat’l Assoc of Realtor) status show a modest turn around.

Yes, although in some places like LA a lot of the houses being moved are foreclosure sales. Anyway, sure, the housing market is trying to bounce back – but there is still so much trouble in the pipeline (failing commercial real estate loans, corporate bonds, european banks and so on) that it may get taken down again before it can be much help to other sectors of the economy.

Like or Dislike: 0  0

Larry: Obama is the most skilled politician I’ve ever seen. He’s toying with you guys, and you don’t even see it.

You are right about the skilled politician thing, but it is not his political ability that I have problems with, it is his political ideology. As for toying with us, I think the point is that we DO see it. That’s why we speak out against it.

Like or Dislike: 0  0

First off, I despise polls such as this. With only 1,000 people polled, can you honestly extrapolate that to the headline “Most Americans support Obama’s economic plan”.

Washington Post-ABC News Poll

3.Do you think things in this country (are generally going in the right direction) or do you feel things (have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track)?

Right direction-31 Wrong track-67 No opinion-2

13. How confident are you that this economic stimulus plan will make the current economic downturn less severe than it would be otherwise – very confident, somewhat confident, not so confident or not confident at all?

—- Confident ——————– Not confident —–
NET-58 Very-13 Fairly-45 NET-41 Not so-19 Not at all-22 No opinion-1

18. How confident are you that the federal government will put in place adequate controls to avoid waste and fraud in the use of federal money in the economic recovery effort? Are you very confident, somewhat confident, not so confident or not confident at all?

—– Confident —–————–—– Not confident —–
NET-46 Very-8 Somewhat-37 NET-52 Not so-22 Not at all-30 No opinion-2

19. How concerned, if at all, are you about the size of the federal budget deficit – very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned or not concerned at all?

— Concerned ————–— Not concerned —
NET-87 Very-59 Smwt-28 NET-12 Not so-9 At all-3 No opinion-1

21. On another economic issue, would you support or oppose the federal government using 75 billion dollars to provide refinancing assistance to homeowners to help them avoid foreclosure on their mortgages? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?

——– Support ——–—————– Oppose ——–
NET-64 Strongly-37 Somewhat-27 NET-35 Somewhat-12 Strongly-23 No opinion-2

Like or Dislike: 0  0

bbart, the first indicators of recovery will not be seen in the stock market, but in housing and insurance (both commercial and new construction). NAR (Nat’l Assoc of Realtor) status show a modest turn around.

The Pending Home Sales Index,a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in December, rose 6.3 percent to 87.7 from an upwardly revised reading of 82.5 in November, and is 2.1 percent higher than December 2007 when it was 85.9.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the index shows a modest rebound. “The monthly gain in pending home sales, spurred by buyers responding to lower home prices and mortgage interest rates, more than offset an index decline in the previous month,” he said. “The biggest gains were in areas with the biggest improvements in affordability.”

NAR’s Housing Affordability index rose 10.9 percent in December to 158.8, the highest on record. The HAI shows that the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income is the most favorable since tracking began in 1970.

“Significant uncertainty still clouds the housing market despite improved affordability conditions. For a sustainable housing market recovery and, hence, sustainable economic recovery, we need a significant housing stimulus and mortgage availability for qualified borrowers,” Yun added.

Hint: “improved affordability” does not mean programs to keep housing prices inflated, i.e. HASP

The other arena that starts showing movement is insurance for construction, commercial ventures. Via some friends in that industry, they are also seeing that start to step up because of the buying opportunities with declining prices. The first things that go into place for these big ventures are insurance/bonds and financing.

The stock market is reactive. Investors are holding back there, and it may be a while before you see anything. And many may be more inclined to reinvest in varying real estate ventures.

See also my link to the LEI’s, updating the post.

Harry Reid and ilk probably all saw this in January… thus the rush to push it thru so that the stimulus became law before the turn around became readily apparent to the public. Insurance and commercial venture plans they may not know about. But housing stats will be something many can identify with. Reid had to start talking about “improvement”.

Like or Dislike: 0  0

Larry -
you may be right about the political feasibility of the current Republican platform, which I have my own disagreements with; however, I’m not that interested in whether an idea is popular or not. The stimulus could have 90% support and I’d still argue that it was a bad idea.
I also haven’t seen Obama’s latest Q&A, though I did see his pledge to cut the deficit in half. When you say he’s ‘thought this whole thing out, both economically and politically. He is about 4 moves ahead of his GOP critics.’, I have to say: it’s not the GOP critics he should be worried about, it’s the actual economy. Do you find his pledge to cut the deficit in half credible? I find it ludicrous – but that’s because we have such different opinions about what direction the economy is going in, which is in part because we don’t agree on the actual effects of the stimulus.
Anyway, the post was mainly about Reid and his feeling that things were beginning to turn. That does strike me as a pretty wild claim when you look at the stock market (breaking back down to 1997 lows) and various other economic measures.

Like or Dislike: 0  0

Larry, what are you talking about? I didn’t discuss eroding approval ratings and alienating the country here. What I brought up is that the economy didn’t need no stinkin’ stimulus to begin a turn around.

Yes, spending is in order. But *wise* spending. The stimulus is laden with unwise spending, but Pelosi/Reid/Obama were determined to shove it down the nation’s throats with little scrutiny because it was … supposedly… an “emergency”. A “catastrophe”. Horse manure.

But of course I don’t see any erosion of approval ratings. Because the lying bastards are up there daily, working on convincing people with BS like this, that they are the economy gods.

That erosion of approval ratings won’t happen until the chicken comes home to roost on their economic damage. Between the wasteful spending in the stimulus… when it finally rolls out… and Obama’s HASP, a dangerous attempt to reinflate the housing bubble, the Democrat truck will have already done a hit and run on average Joe Blow before he “gets” it. Because, as we’ve already seen, the average voter just ain’t that bright….

And it’s a good thing you consider yourself a Democrat liberal, because your idea of conservatism via Crist is pure fantasy.

As for Jindal and Obama… you evidently prefer political flash to policy substance. Also evidenced by your exceptionally rude comment on Palin on another thread. You are exhibiting the superficial characteristics of those who live in California too long.

Like or Dislike: 0  0

You guys will probably take the following as some sort of “in your face” challenge, but it isn’t offered in that spirit. There is simply a disconnect with the “optimism” expressed in various places on this blog that Obama is in the process of alienating the country and what is actually going on. Basically, the so-called erosion in support for Obama’s job performance comes from a relatively small number of otherwise partisan Republicans, who basically decided to kick the tires of the Obama Presidency for a few weeks and give him the benefit of the doubt, and then decided, that, no, we don’t like this guy after all.

So we are back to the same 30% of the country that: (1) supported the Clinton impeachment, (2) gave George W Bush high job approval ratings, (3) think that Sarah Palin would make a great President, (4) think that the Iraq War was a brilliant success and worth every penny of the debt we’ve piled on and human casualties.

Well, you have every right to think this way, but, if you think that this is the road to future conservative success (which, despite what many may think, I’d really like to see — that is, success of true conservatism, which is a concept which I’d like to discuss at some future date) — where was I? Oh yes, if you think that the way to win the hearts and mind of the voters is to embrace the failed political strategies of Karl Rove and Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity and Bill O’Reilly and Dick Cheney, as opposed to listening closely to the likes of Crist (70% approval rating in Florida, despite “core” GOP grumbling) and Pawlenty, well, you are dooming yourselves to a long time of wandering in the political wilderness.

By the way, I watched Jindal’s speech (and I’m a Jindal admirer) and I watched Obama’s question and answer session today, and there is simply no comparison.

Obama has thought this whole thing out, both economically and politically. He is about 4 moves ahead of his GOP critics. I’m watching what’s going on, and I’m just in awe. Obama is the most skilled politician I’ve ever seen. He’s toying with you guys, and you don’t even see it.

Fortunately, some Republicans do see it. That’s why Crist took his huge gamble in supporting the stimulus and why Pawlenty is being muted and statesmanlike. Mark Sanford is betting his political future on the economy going down into the toilet and staying there. It’s not a gamble for most Republican congressmen with safe seats, nor for Southern Republican Senators, but it’s a huge gamble for most Republicans running for state-wide office. The GOP is finding itself being pushed perilously close to the brink of long-term oblivion. It’s a terrible position to be in when the best shot your political party has is if the USA enters a Great Depression and you find yourself being cheered by what others would consider to be bad news. Sort of similar to Democrats deriving grim satisfaction about bad news in Iraq.

We gotta get away from this s—. As Pogo famously said, “we have met the enemy, and he is us.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSTRE51N0JN20090224

One month into his presidency, a Washington Post-ABC News poll found 68 percent of Americans approve of Obama’s job performance.

Sixty-four percent of respondents supported the administration’s $787 billion economic stimulus package and the same percentage backed his proposal to prevent housing foreclosures

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/24/us/politics/24poll.html?em

A majority of people surveyed in both parties said Mr. Obama was striving to work in a bipartisan way, but most faulted Republicans for their response to the president, saying the party had objected to the $787 billion economic stimulus plan for political reasons. Most said Mr. Obama should pursue the priorities he campaigned on, the poll found, rather than seek middle ground with Republicans.

- Larry Weisenthal/Huntington Beach, CA

Like or Dislike: 0  0