It’s true that the Hotline and Zogby, which both showed the race close, perhaps within the margin of error, moved favorably in Obama’s direction today. But the Rasmussen Poll, which is the gold standard shows it trending down.

I’m not reading too much into any of these at the moment since these wild swings in polls that don’t have a solid track record (hotline, Zogby) aren’t as reliable.

I would say however, that only a portion of the result in the Hotline poll was conducted after the latest debate.

I won’t sugar coat it, but also, I would point out that Doug is cheerleading, and NOT analyzing.

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Doug,

Where’s the link to this poll?

Also, I asked in #24 above if you could provide several days worth of history to show trending as well as R/D/I makeup of the polling samples.

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This has to really hurt, Mike.

After the first night of polling conducted after the second Presidential debate, today’s Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll shows Obama-Biden regaining their lead over McCain-Palin in the head-to-head among likely voters, after several days of a closing in on their margin.

In today’s Poll, Obama-Biden is at 47%, McCain-Palin is at 41%, with 9% of voters undecided.
…

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Doug: You might have noticed that despite the result from Gallup, the trend in most of the other polls has been favorable to McCain. As a conservative, I’m still waiting more solid ground before I make any kind of definitive statement. But if the Gallup had been in line with the other polls you cited I wouldn’t be holding back.

See you Thursday!

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Do us a little favor there Doug.

Go back in and post the last three or four weeks of results so that we can see the trending.

I am not a poll hound but I did see some interesting patterns in the two or three polls that I have looked at over the last couple of days.

Also, I’d be interested in seeing the R/D/I distribution on the polls you posted and how those distributions have changed over time as well.

There are lots and lots of ways to tweak a poll to get it to show what you want it to show and manipulation of the R/D/I distributions is just one of them.

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post in the drink

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Doug: What day is this?

You may recall I said that we’d know the answer by WEDNESDAY.

However, there was a slight uptick in McCain’s numbers in one of those daily trackers. And you might have noticed the CBS poll which credited Palin’s performance for narrowing the Obama lead to three points.

But unless new information comes in the next 24 hours it would appear that the race hasn’t changed significantly which may have more to do with events other than the Palin debate.

Of course tonight will also be a major event which may influence the race.

Today is Wednesday, Mike:

RCP Average 10/01 – 10/07 – 49.0 43.9……………………………Obama +5.1
Gallup Tracking 10/05 – 10/07 2747 RV 52 41……………………….Obama +11
Rasmussen Tracking 10/05 – 10/07 3000 LV 51 45………………..Obama +6
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking 10/05 – 10/07 1220 LV 47 45 Obama +2
Hotline/FD Tracking 10/05 – 10/07 904 LV 45 44 …………….Obama +1
GW/Battleground Tracking 10/02 – 10/07 800 LV 49 45 ……..Obama +4
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/02 – 10/06 858 RV 47 40 ……………………Obama +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/04 – 10/05 658 RV 49 43 ……..Obama +6
CBS News 10/03 – 10/05 616 LV 48 45 …………………………..Obama +3
CNN 10/03 – 10/05 694 LV 53 45 ………………………………….Obama +8
Democracy Corps (D) 10/01 – 10/05 1000 LV 49 46 …………….Obama +3
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

RCP sees McCain as risen 8/10 of a point, but they are the only ones.

All the rest, paint a clearly bad message for McCain:
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/10/08/today-s-polls-obama-now-a-9-1-favorite.aspx

Here’s our mutual friends take:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-108.html

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Doug: What day is this?

You may recall I said that we’d know the answer by WEDNESDAY.

However, there was a slight uptick in McCain’s numbers in one of those daily trackers. And you might have noticed the CBS poll which credited Palin’s performance for narrowing the Obama lead to three points.

But unless new information comes in the next 24 hours it would appear that the race hasn’t changed significantly which may have more to do with events other than the Palin debate.

Of course tonight will also be a major event which may influence the race.

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President Dukakis, President Gore, and President Kerry were unavailable for comment regarding pre-election polling accuracy and reliability.

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Mike, in his above post, indicated that “McCain’s attempt to stress Country First by suspending his campaign to work on resolving the financial crisis only resulted in further erosion of his poll numbers (see Gallup daily tracking poll).” Which is true.

Then Mike stated that McCain and Palin have taken the gloves off, that they are not about to sit back and let the media define Obama— that the Republican couple will tell the American people who Obama really is: that he’s a liberal that hangs out with terrorists. Yet it appears that this strategy of going highly negative is not working:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110974/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Leads-50-42.aspx

The numbers have remains unchanged from 50-42 for Oct. 3-5 — Saturday and Sunday, the 4th and 5th, show no change.

More here on why voters don’t care:
http://rightwingnuthouse.com/archives/2008/10/07/ayers-obama-the-voters-dont-care/

And here, why voters don’t care, and why McCain risks grave blow-back going so negative:
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MzRjMDk4MmVhZWFmODI2ZTg4MDIyM2NhMGNmMWI1NGU=

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