“Vegas odds are still heavily favoring Obama. On the Intrade political futures board Obama is at currently at a one month high, McCain at a one month low.
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/”

Smart or sharp money never bets this early. Intrade is reliable come October. Obama is going to be wiped out in November. Watch for a last minute smear on McCain in early October to tighten things up a bit but mcCain will still win handily. Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Minnesota and NH are going red. Obama is not going to take Georgia or Virginia…no way, no how.

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Hmmm … writing off states this soon.

Obama’s Plan B has some problems as well. Here in Colorado, for example, it has reliably voted Republican for president since 1964. (The 1992 result is the aberration when Perot siphoned off enough Republican votes allowing Clinton to carry the state though receiving only 40% of total votes cast. If there was no Perot candidacy, Bush 41 would have clearly carried the state.) Supposedly, Obama is doing well in Colorado … the state has only been polled a few times (and each time with a small sample of 500) and mostly in the Denver Metro, which always lean Democrat. Through the years, Colorado has had Democratic governors (Lamm – 2 terms, Romer – 3 terms, Ritter – current) and Republican governors (Love – 2 years, Vanderhoof – finishing Love’s 3rd term, Owens – 2 terms). The Legislature, mostly Republican led until 2002 (split) and becoming Democrat led in 2004. Clearly, what happens at the state level hasn’t translated to the presidential level. If Colorado is part of Obama’s plan, he would have lots of work to do.

With regard to Utah (comment #1), Obama stands no chance. As for NM, it went to Gore in 2000 basically on widespread election fraud and Bush won in 2004 despite the same election fraud efforts. In NV, Bush carried in 2000 and 2004. The 2004 results were much narrower due to election fraud in certain precincts (total number of votes exceeded the population).

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Vegas odds are still heavily favoring Obama. On the Intrade political futures board Obama is at currently at a one month high, McCain at a one month low.
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

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The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The major shortcoming of the current system of electing the President is that presidential candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or worry about the voter concerns in states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. The reason for this is the winner-take-all rule which awards all of a state’s electoral votes to the candidate who gets the most votes in each separate state. Because of this rule, candidates concentrate their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. Two-thirds of the visits and money are focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money goes to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people are merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 18 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, North Carolina, Rhode Island, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

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gosh i miss tim russert and his dry erase board. he would have all of this down pat and all of the variables. it seems that obama only cares about winning and doeasn’t give a crap about this country. he IS all about change, changing his mind and beliefs as the mood and crowd suits him. what a load.

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I hope it’s not that close. I believe that Oshamassiah is going to take a beating, even with John McCain do his best to toss the election away. John please listen! STFU for 5 minutes will you, and allow those who are on the fence about you to come around.

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Nov will come down to FL, OH, and PA.

Whoever gets two of those three, gets the WH.

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They say one thing and do another.

Puts out the word that Fl is a throw away and Obama has his first north Florida appearance coming up soon.

Plus he just appointed a new up and coming hot shot to his Fl campaign name Steve Schale.

Word is he will try to turn Va, Ga , Co and maybe Ut and give up Nh where Hill beat him and Mc has got some strength.

Obama had his hat handed to him in the Fl primary. Simply the groups that are is backers are not here in this state due to its makeup. Most Dems are Hillary types here and he would have a long way to go to pull Fl out of the fire.

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