Anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has rejected conditions set by Iraq’s prime minister for stopping the military crackdown against his Mahdi Army militia.

An al-Sadr spokesman accused Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki of wanting to resolve the problem by force instead of dialogue.

Last week, al-Maliki set four conditions for stopping the campaign. He said the groups must hand over heavy weapons and stop interfering in politics and the security forces. He also demanded they hand over all wanted people.

Al-Sadr is believed to be in Iran. His spokesman in Najaf, Salah al-Obeidi, described al-Maliki’s conditions as “illogical.”

http://www.uruknet.de/?p=m43464&hd=&size=1&l=e

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http://www.bostonherald.com/news/international/middle_east/view.bg?articleid=1088124

It looks like there is going to be a new style of divide and conquer. There was an article two years ago where Al-Sadr had an estimated 60,000 men, but it was so large that he couldn’t control it. Who knows if insergencies have infiltrated Al-Sadr’s army as well as Al-sadr infiltrated the Iraqi government. Image local thugs and Al Qaeda fighters posing as JAM.

I should point out on another front, another article I read listed the death toll from the fighting in Afganistan as 8,000 mostly insurgents. That’s 2,200 more that the article I mentioned earlier. The U.S. doesn’t count the enemy dead and of course NATO isn’t around all the fighting to come up with these figures. Bombs, especially large bombs make it hard to count the dead.

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Stix sez “Who let the trolls in.”

I keep telling ‘em to honor the “do not feed” sign, Stix… But no one listens. LOL

Speaking of, where IS Phillie Steve? Did he change names to conceal the guilty??

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Life is so much more complex than Maliki’s Iranian birth, Hakim’s leadership with Iranian liasons, etal.

Sadr, tho born an Iraqi, is not his father’s son. He has tried to leap frog to power sans religious training thru murders of those in the food chain ahead of him. Not a way to win friends and fans doing this.

Indeed, Sadr saw in the US liberation of Iraq, an opportunity to take advantage of a coup d etat during these times of wavering uncertainty. (thank you for enlightenment, Ray Robison) Oops.. didn’t work.

To assume that Sadr enjoys the undying devotions of those who followed his father is absurd. He is returning to the seminary strictly because his ascent was fraught with corruption and violence. His following was more localized, and his credibility nil in the wider regions.

With all that’s happening around him, I can only assume his studies are getting sidelined considerably. This slows his progress to becoming a more viable religious leader, and less a renegage gang thug.

That said, I’m not saying he’s not a force to be reckoned with. But I liken him to the same as US gangs and mafia.. big issues in certain areas, but small peanuts in the full scheme of things. He is on the losing side of ideology for the new Iraq. He will ultimately lose, but cost many lives before beaten down.

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Why Washington and Baghdad are playing with a loaded gun:

…
Unlike Mr. al-Maliki and Mr. Hakim, Sheik al-Sadr is a home-grown leader with genuine support inside Iraq. Since the U.S. invasion, Sheik al-Sadr has emphasized his two main claims to leadership: as the son of a revered ayatollah martyred by the Ba’ath regime and as someone who never left Iraq to live in comfortable exile. He also has tried to win support by creating a social-service network in Shi’ite cities, fiercely criticizing the U.S. occupation and modeling himself after his father’s vision of an activist clergyman.

It’s not too late to prevent Mr. al-Maliki and his allies from making a major error. Washington can pressure Mr. al-Maliki to change the draft election law, and to open a dialogue with Sheik al-Sadr. The United States has learned from its past mistakes; it now knows that it cannot simply wish Sheik al-Sadr away or marginalize him. Iraqi leaders must learn that same lesson.

…
“I think the threat should be taken very seriously indeed,” said Reidar Visser, editor of the Iraq-focused website historiae.org and an expert on southern Shi’ite Iraq.

“The Sadrists represent a strong popular movement with deep roots in Iraqi society, and it is entirely unrealistic to deal with them through military solutions alone.”
…

…
One can question the impact of a Maliki victory from the perspective of democratic theory. Virtually all experts agree that the Sadrist movement probably has more mass support among Shi’ites than the combination of Dawa and SIIC. In some mix of local and provincial elections that was held on the basis of ideal democracy, Sadr would win significant strength in Baghdad and the south, and do so with as much legitimacy as any other populist demagogue.

More practically, it is hard to dismiss the possibility that the fighting that began on March 25 has been directed largely against Sadr precisely because he was becoming an increasingly better organized political force and more of a threat to Dawa and SIIC leaders who gained power more because they rode the US-led invasion into power than because of real popular support.
…

And Judith Miller! Yes, that Judith Miller:

Could things get worse? Yes. And they very well might if Washington, in the name of supporting the democratically elected Maliki government, gets our forces further embroiled in a battle among competing Shiite factions. … Iraqis see the attack as an effort by Maliki — and by his ally of convenience, Abdelaziz Hakim, another Shiite leader who heads the Iranian-backed Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq — to neuter Sadr and his more numerous, better-organized network in advance of provincial elections next October.

One might say the US in already ‘embroiled’:

Miller failed to mention the US walling off a section of Sadr City:
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/04/18/news/Iraq.php

And the US is engaging in air strikes in Sadr City:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/04/11/iraq.main/
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/04/25/iraq.main/?iref=hpmostpop

All the violence resulting in food, water and drug shortages:
http://www.inform.kz/showarticle.php?lang=eng&id=163634

While the Mahdi Army’s zealous Shiism is certainly repressive and violent –and we in the West can desire/demand a relaxation of it– it is to confuse the issue of progress in a military solution when one leads one into the realm of wishful thinking and willful cheer-leading that Sadr can be militarily overcome. A bit of circumspect caution is warranted here, even if one is predisposed to seeing all the “good” news that is coming out of Iraq.

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Who let the trolls in. At least Philly Steve and a few other make some sense.

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Therefore, something must break: either JAM or Maliki.

So is Curt overly optimistic that our front is stable? or does it mean that a Sadrist war is just around the corner?

I think the evidence indicates it’s the latter.

And I obviously disagree.

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Guys, guys… did you miss the sign at the FA cyber entrance that said “don’t feed the stray trolls”??

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Curt,

Letting you know, I’m saving your lede, ‘Crumbling Insurgency’, in a folder.

UPDATE:
BAGHDAD (AP) — Iraq’s prime minister has set four conditions for stopping a government-led crackdown against radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s militia and other illegally armed groups.

Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki says the groups must hand over weapons and cease interference in the affairs of the state.

Al-Maliki listed the conditions in an interview Friday with Al-Arabiya TV. He is also demanding that the militants hand over all wanted people and present lists of names of people involved in violence.

Al-Sadr has threatened an “open war” if the crackdown doesn’t stop but said earlier Friday the threat only applied to U.S.-led forces, not Iraqis.
—–

Again, there appears to be no let up for Sadr as Maliki keeps putting more pressure on JAM to run it out of business; it’s highly improbable Sadr will permit him to do so without a fight.

I believe this is very dangerous strategy Maliki is attempting.

Sadr’s militia, probably more accurately understood as a “nationalist guerilla force” in this context of ‘insurgents,’ and they have neither the need nor interest to engage in firefights with heavy armor as it’s a losing battle for them. So, they are left with this: they are “the populace,” (and with those numbers being in the millions) and as such, they can simply melt back into their daily routines until opportunity presents itself again. This is worst kind of insurgency given the type of COIN we are engaging in now.

Curt believes there is no storm brewing here; it’s a ‘crumbling’ of the insurgency.

Curt accents the good news the Iraqi Accord Front is coming back to Parliament, but it is this present step to isolate the Sadrists that brought them back; it was a very risky move given Sadr’s following and numbers.

Now the only significant group completely outside the government is the Mahdi Army and it must be put out of business for good, otherwise it will appear Maliki has gone back on his word to the Sunnis.

Therefore, something must break: either JAM or Maliki.

So is Curt overly optimistic that our front is stable? or does it mean that a Sadrist war is just around the corner?

I think the evidence indicates it’s the latter.

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MSM is constantly under attack by fringe groups. The 9/11 toofers, the anti global warming clique and the pro war group. ALL think that the MSM has a hidden agenda and is under the direct control of SOROS!
The hard right constantly says it supports the war, but of course their support is mostly verbal. They would never support actually paying for it with a tax increase, they are content to just keep borrowing the money to pay for the war from the Chinese and let other generations of Americans pay for it.

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