[...] their war on Iran." Let me see if I get this straight.Conditions Delineated by MNF-I CommanderIt "is correct" that "Iranian-backed special groups in Iraq are responsible for the murder of hundreds of [...]

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UPDATE for Mr. Doug:

Sistani’s spokesman has been named in today’s Voices of Iraq.

Leading figure in Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, Jalal el-Din al-Saghier, said on Tuesday that dissolving the al-Mahdi army is Shiite Cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s responsibility, asserting that top Shiite Cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has nothing to do with this militia as al-Sadr did not consult the SIIC when he established it.

“Al-Sistani has a clear opinion in this regard; the law is the only authority in the country,” al-Saghier told Aswat al-Iraq – Voices of Iraq (VOI).

“The top Shiite cleric had not been consulted in establishing al-Mahdi army, so it could not interfere in dissolving it,” he added.

“Whosoever established the al-Mahdi army has to dissolve it,” he underlined. “Sayyed Muqtada al-Sadr established this army and it is only him who has to dissolve it,” he explained.

“Al-Sistani asked al-Mahdi army to give in weapons to the government,” the Shiite official said.

snip

This is exactly true. The Mahdi militia was established in 2003 by Sadr, where they proceeded to systematically murder senior clerics to advance Sadr up the theological food chain.

While Sistani can no more say “disband”, since he didn’t form it and won’t go there, he most definitely *can* say “disarm” within his religious authority. Thereby, he unequivocably throws his weight behind the Iraq elected government.

I say again… “take that, Sadr! Now what?”

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Yep, sure am, Doug. But Sistani’s PR history (thru spokesmen) vs Sadr’s (thru his spokesmen) are like night and day for validity. So I expect we’ll hear more of this in the next days thru other channels as well.

So I’d say keep your ears to the ground, and your fingers crossed… assuming you *do* want Iraqis to see some good news and progress in their internal battles against thugs, gangs, militants and mafias.

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MataHarley,

I’m sure you’re aware that “spokesman” is nameless.

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SISTANI SPOKESMAN SEZ “DISARM” and MOVE MILITIAS OUT!

Sorry, but I did mean to “shout” here. But oh, yes I did. Can’t remember where the Basra thread was where we discussed this, but generally the “gang’s all here” anyway. So here’s as good as any place to bring up the new news. Sadr’s challenge to Sistani has been answered. And somebody ought to call Gen. Petraeus in his House meetings so he can give ‘em the update. Anyone got his cell number? LOL

Per an Adnkronos article today… at the very bottom of course… it appears that Sistani’s spokesman is responding to Sadr’s “I’ll disband if the head honchos say to” challenge.

snip

Meanwhile, one of Iraq’s eminent clerics, Ayatollah al-Sistani, has offered his support to the government of prime minister Nouri al-Maliki in its bid to control the Mahdi Army.

A spokesman for the cleric from the city of Najaf said al-Sistani supported disarming the militias and removing them from Iraq.

snip

Take that, Sadr. Now whatcha gonna do?

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recommend vs suggest?

Irrelevant to me. You’re correct that it’s semantics. My point is that the concept, announcement, and plan/objective to have a 45-day pause in withdrawals in July is not a new concept, announcement, plan/objective to the American people.

To further illustrate my point that a pause has always been part of the surge plan, please read the testimony re the surge from September 2007:
http://www.politico.com/pdf/PPM43_general_petraeus_testimony_10_september2007.pdf

“I would also like to discuss the period beyond next summer. Force reductions will continue beyond the pre-surge levels of brigade combat teams that we will reach by mid-July 2008; however, in my professional judgment, it would be premature to make recommendations on the pace of such reductions at this time. In fact, our experience in Iraq has repeatedly shown that projecting too far into the future is not just difficult, it can be misleading and even hazardous. The events of the past six months underscore that point. When I testified in January, for example, no one would have dared to forecast that Anbar Province would have been transformed the way it has in the past 6 months. Nor would anyone have predicted that volunteers in one-time Al Qaeda strongholds like Ghazaliyah in western Baghdad or in Adamiya in eastern Baghdad would seek to join the fight against Al Qaeda. Nor would we have anticipated that a Shia-led government would accept significant numbers of Sunni volunteers into the ranks of the local police force in Abu Ghraib. Beyond that, on a less encouraging note, none of us earlier this year appreciated the extent of Iranian involvement in Iraq, something about which we and Iraq’s leaders all now have greater concern.
In view of this, I do not believe it is reasonable to have an adequate appreciation for the pace of further reductions and mission adjustments beyond the summer of 2008 until about mid-March of next year.”

Now, he didn’t specifically “recommend” a “45-day pause in July”, but he made it clear last September that in March (a few weeks/months ago in my words earlier) he’d evaluate further drawdowns and make recommendations; the recommendation made was to pause in July, after the surge forces are gone, wait 45days, and then see if the conditions are right for more drawdowns.

I don’t like it, I’d like to see more drawdowns, more success, and more Democratic Party belly button stares in reflection of how the party has banked on American failure rather than rooted for, supported, promoted, and advocated American success.

re effects of US withdrawal, You’re right. There’s plenty of people who believe the Tigris and Euphrates will turn to chocolate instead of blood, the date groves will bear jelly beans instead of insurgents, and the sky over Baghdad will be filled with cotton candy clouds instead of smoke from bombs. I don’t. I think (and statements from Sen Obama, Sen Clinton, Gov Dean and other Dem leaders confirm) that it’s not likely. It’s gonna take time, and that the cost of being wrong (withdrawing US troops irregardless of conditions on the ground) far outweighs the cost of being careful (keeping as many US troops as are needed in Iraq to succeed in making Iraq a secure and stable ally in the war on terror). The cost of being careful could be $100bn (the other night ABC Nightly News finally came clean and admitted the war in Iraq has cost $453bn over 5yrs), and it could be another 1000 Americans killed. That’s a very high price. However, it’s immensely cheaper than gambling with the most likely scenarios of civil war, genocide, and regional war which are completely un affordable in blood and treasure.

This is why I think Pres Obama would likely come into office at a time when conditions could warrant more drawdowns (trend is towards security getting better and more political reconcilliation by then as well). He could then start ordering forces home, but at the same, unreported rate we’ve had for the past 6months. When force levels get down to 80-50k, he could say we have to keep these forces in Iraq to continue:
protecting Americans there
training ISF
deterring regional threats to Iraq
fighting AQ
ie the current mission and the objective of the past 4yrs….though, Pres Obama would get credit for the drawdowns, the “new” direction in Iraq, etc.

Sen Clinton would do the same

Sen McCain will do the same given the chance

I have yet to be convinced of the US leaves by a different path= chocolate river/jelly bean forest/cotton candy clouds theory. Lacking a different path/plan, it seems to me that the war is now an animal in and of itself that the next President-even a Dem-cannot provide a yet another different/”new” direction. And I still think it’s gonna be a YouTube Bonanza in the fall when members of Congress and Dem party leaders try to argue for yet another “New Direction in Iraq” while the vids of their promises from 2006 are still available for before/after campaign ads/vids. I know I for one will be EAGER to make some vids of Speaker Pelosi promising to end the war (from her 2006 ads), and edit them with her inevitable 2008 claims of the same.

Behold!

The glorrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrry of the internet.

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Scott, respectfully, i suggest your semantics are confusing the issue at hand.

I said in post 7, “Petraeus… is now recommending a troop pause.”

You said in Post 8, “Actually, the 45-day pause was suggested weeks/months ago.”

I, again in 9: ” Yet, Petreaus, himself, didn’t recommend a troop pause weeks or months ago; he, also, did not commit to a timetable for resuming troop reductions after the 45-day pause and, also, has recommended an open-ended suspension of US troop withdrawals this summer, asserting “a process of assessment to examine the conditions on the ground and, over time, determine when we can make recommendations for further reductions.’’

Then, you back again in 10: “Yes, General Petraeus DID suggest a July pause weeks/months ago, and the nutroots went wild with claims that only surge forces would be removed while he, Gates, and others have been adamant that they desire to further withdraw units only if conditions on the ground warrant.”

I think the problem is: you want to accent “suggest”, while I spoke of “recommend”, as in making a declaration about something. While in the past months Petraeus did hint, infer, and even did ‘suggest’ a freeze or pause, he did not anywhere, that i know of, state a recommendation, specifically, for a pause. For example, he was never, to my knowledge, as specific as Gates was, months back, on a pause.

As i read the Patraeus tea leaves, the public may have ‘believed’ –as per his prior hints, or suggestions, that he _might_ freeze a troop reduction, but now they ‘know’ he will recommend to the president a freeze. That’s the difference. And it’s this recommendation that probably ties back to the March 08 spike in violence …it assured that Patraeus could not continue with a troop draw-down. March violence tied his hands to a pause, but prior to that they were not bound.

If you can provide me a link where, several weeks/months ago, Petreaus recommended, specifically, a troop pause, I will admit ignorance.
—-
So it was the USIP. I haven’t read it yet. I know the group is a child of the Iraq study group.
—
You state:
“How many of the intel agencies that compiled the NIE dissented from the position that genocide, regional war, and re-invasion weren’t likely scenarios in the event of a withdrawal that ignores conditions and is based on poll-driven political timelines?”

I don’t know. As you’re well aware McConnell’s denied the request for the NIE to be released for public consumption in an unclassified version. Therefore, there is no telling where the intel agencies stand on the particulars presently.
–
I don’t have a lot of time right now to argue at length on this (and apologize for simply linking), but here is a counter argument to the worst case scenario:

http://foreign.senate.gov/testimony/2008/GauseTestimony080403a.pdf

There are plenty of quality counter-arguments like that by foreign policy and military experts
that make it harder for one to simply privilege a particular case as a certitude, consequently, locking out scenarios, especially, when the events and personalities involved are variable and can be dynamically fluid.
—

“Gonna be a lot tougher than Dems realize.”

Maybe, but it’s still to early for me to frame it; as i feel the public is too media malleable. Perhaps you are betting at it than i am.

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Yes, General Petraeus DID suggest a July pause weeks/months ago, and the nutroots went wild with claims that only surge forces would be removed while he, Gates, and others have been adamant that they desire to further withdraw units only if conditions on the ground warrant.

It’s not a bold statement at all to say Democrats have lost and will lose the Iraq issue because they offer no plan. Is the American public that was deliberately, openly, and clearly lied to in 06 ready to swallow another “New Direction in Iraq” promise 2yrs after the last one was so plainly broken; so plainly proven a pandered lie? Add to that the fact that Sen McCain’s plan isn’t any different than what Sen Obama can offer; both seek a gradual reduction of forces dependent on conditions on the ground, but without a complete withdrawal.

Re the genocide and regional war stuff, nope, not a worst case scenario but a most likely scenario if a withdrawal happens that is made irregardless of conditions on the ground. How many of the intel agencies that compiled the NIE dissented from the position that genocide, regional war, and re-invasion weren’t likely scenarios in the event of a withdrawal that ignores conditions and is based on poll-driven political timelines?

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN0643702020080406?virtualBrandChannel=10112

Face it
1) the American people will not buy the “vote D and we’ll end the war” line unconditionally anymore, they’re gonna want a plan
2) there’s not a lotta difference between Sen McCain and Sen Obama’s plans except that McCain is honest and tells everyone the cold fact that yeah, there’s gonna be American troops in Iraq for a long time-more than the next 4yrs.
3) As election day draws closer, Dems will be less and less able to try the sleight of hand claim that voting Sen McCain is like voting for more GWB.

Add to this the division in the party (the Dem party) stemming from:
alienating Florida voters
alienating Michigan voters
alienating Clinton supporters
not promising a complete withdrawal in 4yrs

and lastly add the incoming scrutiny from the people who decide the election: the centrists, independents and RINO/DINOs. These people will look at Sen McCain and see a history of working across party lines and working for centrist, independent, and RINO/DINO positions while Sen Obama has only taken the far left party line in his small history.

Gonna be a lot tougher than Dems realize.

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Yet, Petreaus, himself, didn’t recommend a troop pause weeks or months ago; he, also, did not commit to a timetable for resuming troop reductions after the 45-day pause and, also, has recommended an open-ended suspension of US troop withdrawals this summer, asserting “a process of assessment to examine the conditions on the ground and, over time, determine when we can make recommendations for further reductions.’’

“Ultimately, Democrats have lost and will lose the Iraq issue.” —That’s a mighty bold statement, especially for this early in the game, the 06 elections and polls indicating a public souring on a large troop presence in Iraq.

“President Obama cannot withdraw troops en masse (the Dems’ base’s desire) because Iraq would collapse (according to the Peace Institute and the National Intelligence Estimates) leading to genocide and full blown regional war that would make the $430bn/4000kia over 5yrs look like a skirmish. President Obama can do a partial withdrawal, but that’s the same plan as Sen McCain and Pres Bush and Hillary.”

I don’t know what you mean by withdrawing troops en masse. But if you mean ‘all troops’, Obama never said “all troops” would be withdrawn.” If you mean a number like 100,000 removed would lead[] to genocide and full blown regional war,” that’s a description of a worst case scenario, depends on how the variables are considered, and, also, not a certainty; of course, there are, also, counter arguments against such a scenario happening.

By “Peace Institute” do you mean the USIP? The NIE’s paint a spectrum of possible outcomes for various troop withdrawals; they do not designate the certitude of a collapse that you do.

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Actually, the 45-day pause was suggested weeks/months ago.

Ultimately, Democrats have lost and will lose the Iraq issue. President Obama cannot withdraw troops en masse (the Dems’ base’s desire) because Iraq would collapse (according to the Peace Institute and the National Intelligence Estimates) leading to genocide and full blown regional war that would make the $430bn/4000kia over 5yrs look like a skirmish. President Obama can do a partial withdrawal, but that’s the same plan as Sen McCain and Pres Bush and Hillary.

End of story. That’s it. They know it, and now all they can do is politicize it. Once Pres Obama takes office there’d be the same calls for irresponsible immediate unconditional withdrawal en masse, but as Dems did when they took Congress on the promise to end the war, he’d just hedge it, blame it on whatever, and continue the war because the cost of withdrawing is infinitely more than the cost of staying and slowly lowering troop levels.

Any further anti-Iraq war rhetoric from the left is simply irrelevant and demonstrative only of a willing suspension of belief. Calls for “new strategy” or claims that “this strategy isn’t working” are even more moot in the absence of a better strategy than one that pairs withdrawals to successes/conditions on the ground.

So rant away leftists, then pull that lever in November and authorize the continuing of the war like you did in November 2006.

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