Speaking of polls you so love, Mr. Doug… here’s one guaranteed to give most of us a smile. I had to blog on this myself today to release pent up steam from my ears….

It’s a poll that says 81% of Americans think our elected officials should listen to polls prior to major decisions. (Like they don’t already hear poll results in our news daily?)

Of course that 81% translates to 780 out of 975 responders. (no profile of the responders provided) That’s 780 people I can safely say do not speak for me, nor should their poll voices be granted the power to influence domestic and foreign policies.

You’ll find links to the actual poll, and both the UPI story, and ABC story that accompanies the poll, in my post. Point of contention is the Cheney quote you abbreviated above… as did the ABC accompanying story. Both you and ABC bypassed his suggestion that had polls been conducted during the contentious period of the Civil War, it may never have been waged.

Then again, therein lies the danger of allowing poll responders, who only read media cryptic half-truths instead of source material, so much influence over America’s policies.

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Of course there is lost confidence in all realms, Doug. Reading the media headlines of constant doom and gloom, and little on progress, is the only education most poll responders have. Why would you expect any other opinion?

Iraqis read daily that the next POTUS will be DNC, and will withdraw despite events on the ground as “pressure”. Why should they have confidence in our continued aid?

Note the eroding confidence over time follows the same path of increased negative coverage (vs any progress) over the same period.

You cannot separate public opinion from media reporting. Media is tasked with the education of the public for current events and issues. They fail miserably in that task by substituting op-eds and speculation as news….instead forcing their opinions upon the reader as fact.

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MataHarley said:

“My point? Polls and opinions are as fleeting and changable as the wind… merely a reflection of the latest media headlines.”

Granted, there’s truth to that. But here, I think what we’re discussing here has a larger scale and volume. Attitudes on the Iraq war are quite solid and have a deeper gravity in the mindset of Americans than, say, present polling data on who will win the presidency. The two polls are different not in degree, but kind; one, measures attitudes from the past (tied to evidence–not just headlines), the other, speculations about the future (usually tied to wishes). Certainly, the Iraq war has more of a public familiarity, than momentary projections on political themes.
To differ here is to ignore the public cost of the war.

I’d argue the publics’ perception of the Iraq war is grasped much more clearly than a “fluctuation”. I believe Cheney was either ignorant or deceptive in stating, “I think you cannot be blown off course by the fluctuations in the public opinion polls.”

From a synoptic analysis of the polling data I believe one finds _years_ of consistent public erosion of confidence in the Administrations’ management of the Iraq war:

According to a recent CNN poll Americans have steadily lost confidence in the Iraq war after the 2003 invasion. CNN poll, …just 36 percent of the American public believes that “the situation in Iraq was worth going to war over — down from 68 percent in March 2003, when the war began.”

In 2005 the public highly questioned the invasion and was basically spit on an Iraq withdrawal in one or more fashion:
http://edition.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/06/27/iraq.poll/

By 2006 more than half of Americans wanted a withdrawal plan for Iraq:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2006-06-26-iraq-poll_x.htm

Last month as Cheney declared, “The American people will not support a policy of retreat.” … I noted above, in post 2, there is a near consistent majority in all polls that support some kind of withdrawal. This linkage from 2006 to the present has held fast.

Additionally, this downward trend in confidence in the Bush Administration’s management of the war is reflected historically in international support as well; it has continued to fall in most countries and generally reflects US attitudes:

The global view of the United States’ role in world affairs has significantly deteriorated over the last year according to a BBC World Service poll of more than 26,000 people across 25 different countries.

As the United States government prepares to send a further 21,500 troops to Iraq, the survey reveals that three in four (73%) disapprove of how the US government has dealt with Iraq.

The poll shows that in the 18 countries that were previously polled, the average percentage saying that the United States is having a mainly positive influence in the world has dropped seven points from a year ago—from 36 percent to 29 percent—after having already dropped four points the year before. Across all 25 countries polled, one citizen in two (49%) now says the US is playing a mainly negative role in the world.

Over two-thirds (68%) believe the US military presence in the Middle East provokes more conflict than it prevents and only 17 percent believes US troops there are a stabilizing force.

http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/international_security_bt/306.php?lb=btvoc&pnt=306&nid=&id=

A Pew poll on world opinion came to the same conclusions:

Favorable opinions of the U.S. have, in general, dropped steadily from 1999/2000 to 2006 in most of the 15 countries surveyed by the Pew Global Attitudes Project. In Britain, some 56 percent of people had a favorable view of the U.S. in 2006, compared to 83 percent at the turn of the century. In 2006, favorable opinions dropped significantly in predominately Muslim countries, ranging from 12 percent in Turkey to 30 percent in Indonesia and Egypt.

http://www.pbs.org/now/shows/314/opinions-of-us.html

Confidence in US foreign policy, both domestically and internationally, has taken only one path since over the past years: downward; confidence in the White House has eroded consistently and is preserved over time. Evidence of this was the 06 congressional election; …that was hardly a fluctuation (–as much as Rove argued he knew had the “real” numbers on the public pulse).

And lest we not forget –as is all too common the case here in the US– the outstanding theme in the two Iraqi polls we discussed, here at Aces last week, found only only 20% of Iraqis have any confidence in our occupation; meaning, that despite all of our good will, Iraqis have the least amount of confidence in US forces and it remains the single organization (out of six, including the militias) that has the largest credibility gap.

Therefore, for years– not days, weeks in a polling blimp –there has been a concrete domestic, international and Iraqi erosion in the confidence of the Bush Administrations’ handling of the war and a majority or more want a withdrawal: the magnitude of this issue is so weighted deeply in Americans it also coincides with the erosion in Bush’s own approval numbers falling along side his handling of Iraq.

These polls are long-standing in the US and world community and are not sandbars on a riverbank; they are about as near bedrock as one can get from polling as they span years and have been undergirded by the 06 election.

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I have no doubts that you will be nailing the nutroots. Thanks guys, after a few days of flu, the color has returned to my cheeks.

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Well, just for Missy, I’m gonna do some serious research today and put together another good post or two. My next one’s for you Missy! Thanks for swelling my head and kicking my research initiative into overdrive. Next stop…nutroots naildown!

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Doug said:

That Gallup poll Rove mentions seems out of step with other recent polls.

The concept of polls often baffle me. How can they ask 1000 people out of approx 300 mil denizens and figure that as an accurate slice?? But, ya know, they do provide employment. Just wish they weren’t the foundation for media talking points, which then tends to make people form opinions that follow the crowd.

So let’s talk polls. Early polls had Clinton inaugurated as the nominee, and next POTUS. Early polls had the GOP with zero chances for contest. Early polls had McCain as a long shot. Early polls in late 2002 and 2003 had 70% of the population supporting the Iraq liberation strategy.

And… all polls become “early polls” as time marches on.

My point? Polls and opinions are as fleeting and changable as the wind… merely a reflection of the latest media headlines.

As Cheney said INRE poll opinions, “so?” Polls should never be a factor in policy or military decision making. To do so is to allow the media to guide policy and legislation in our country.

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Thank you Missy for your very kind words.

You also brought up a very important point that I would like to amplify: The authors here at Flopping Aces, led by our fearless leader Curt, are just the cooks slaving away in the rhetorical and intellectual kitchen. It is the very fine and substantive comments from so many others like yourself that add the flavor and spice to this daily stew of ideas, commentary and debate.

So, don’t thank us! Thanks to you and your fellow readers and comment contributors this daily blog experience is so much more rewardable for all.

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Gush away Missy…..I promise our heads won’t grow THAT big, just a little. Seriously tho, thanks for the great compliments.

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Hah! I used to read JustOneMinute several times a day, still check in occasionally, but, switched to FloppingAces. FA moves a bit faster with a variety of topics and the research provided by the FA crew can’t be beat. I appreciate the dedication, the hard work, the research, the articulate debate and much more. Thanks to all!

Rove will find you, if folks like MataHarley, Mark E, etc. did, so will he. Been meaning to compliment their outstanding contributions as well as other posters in the comment section, but don’t want to chase away FA’s lib friends with too much gushing.

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Doc,

Wow… Little touchy, but that is “typical leftist tactic blah”. Actually I have no problem with using this against comms coming INTO and OUT OF the USA from known terrorist IPs and phone numbers as it is now. What I have issues with was mass unwarranted scanning as done under the previous President (which the NYTs had no issues with in 2000) which are no longer used BTW.

But thanks for acknowledging that both leftist/socialist candidates will gleefully abuse and expand the wiretaps in their lust for absolute power. More proof that the current incarnation of the socialist Democratic Party needs to be kept far from power.

Now if only the Republican candidate was not “Democrat Lite”. But that is another issue.

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