In the 2004 election exit poll the split amongst people who identify themselves as Republican and Democrat we’re split 37%-37%. In 2006 when the Republicans lost their majority status it was 38%-31%. Now Republican identification is surging:
The number of Americans who consider themselves to be Republicans
jumped nearly two percentage points in December to 34.2%. That’s the
largest market share for the Republican brand in nearly two years,
since January 2006 (see history from January 2004 to present).At the same time, the number of Democrats fell to 36.3%. That’s down a point compared to a month ago. During 2007, the number of Democrats has ranged from a low of 35.9% in July to a high of 37.8% in February.
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It is startling to note that the Democrats have lost two thirds of the partisan advantage since taking control of Congress
Startling? Not even close. Buyers remorse set in once they saw what their votes put into office.
The point that the Democrats were wrong about Iraq cannot be made too often and with too much elaboration. Yet it’s hardly made by any candidates. A year ago I predicted that the war in Iraq will be won based on the early evidence that was coming in at that time about the very early phase of the Anbar awakening and the Petraeus strategy. I also predicted that this will have a devastating effect on the Democrats. So far I have only been right about the first part. It’s amazing to me that such a horrible choosing of sides isn’t made into a punishing political point by the Republicans. But there is still time and hope.
I wouldn’t say it is so much a GOP surge as it is a Democrat meltdown. They sort of have a Midas touch except it isn’t gold that everything the Dems touch turns to.
Patience Igor——-it will come. I think the RNC will keep this in the bag till around September and then let them have it with both barrels.
“Buyers remorse” Curt? I like that. Save your receipt (voters stub) and you can exchange it for a conservative in November.
Hind sight is 20-20, but some of us tried to warn those who sat home. Never again should Republicans desert the battle field. This election, believe it, is for the very life of the U.S.A, don’t sit home vote.
Curt
That is one poll and of course it should be given all the consideration that it deserves. I
prefer to use an average such as given on sites like RealClearPolitics http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
Here if you scroll down to the bottom of the page you will see that an AVERAGE of polls still gives a rather strong 10% advantage to the Democrats.
Of course elections in the United States are really determined by the group that you failed to cite, the Independents. Generally the proportion of the American electorate remains just about constant at 1/3 Republicans 1/3 Democrats and 1/3 Independents. When Bush’s approval rating sank to 1 out of 3 it was because he had essentially lost all of the Independents.
As for Iraq, the opinion of Americans has not substantially changed with the “success” of the surge. http://www.gallup.com/poll/1633/Iraq.aspx
And of course besides the polls where people only put their opinions there are the places where people put their money. There Fred ! has desurged and is now at 110-1
John dismissing the poll….shocking!
Actually I found the debate question on Iraq for the Democrats exactly what I was looking for. It was asked as reasonably and with what I found to be a fair pre-report. The non-answers by the candidates, especially Hillary’s on what her “suspension of disbelief” meant were something to behold. We’ll see how all of this resonates.
In fact I must say (and I haven’t read any reviews) that the two debates were conducted quite well, relatively speaking. Certainly serious issues were covered, there wasn’t any obvious bias against any candidates, and they were given a good amount of time to make their points. ABC, who would’ve thunk it?
Curt,
Here is something else shocking. I think most here dismiss John, his Vegas website, and leftist positions.